Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD), Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya\u2019n\u0131n erken saatlerinde 4.700 dolar civar\u0131nda son bir haftan\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Hareket, ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131na dair iyimserli\u011fin enflasyon (fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131) endi\u015felerini azaltmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geldi.<\/p>\n
Bloomberg, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD ile \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n sava\u015f\u0131 bitirmeye y\u00f6nelik yeni bir teklifi de\u011ferlendirdi\u011fini yazd\u0131. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n \u201cbitme ihtimalinin \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek\u201d oldu\u011funu ve gelecek hafta Pekin\u2019e yapaca\u011f\u0131 seyahatten \u00f6nce sona erebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Fiyat bask\u0131s\u0131na (enflasyonun y\u00fckselme riski) dair kayg\u0131lar\u0131n azalmas\u0131, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faiz indirebilece\u011fi beklentisini art\u0131rabilir. Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz, alt\u0131n tutman\u0131n f\u0131rsat maliyetini (faizde getirisi olan ara\u00e7lar yerine alt\u0131n tutman\u0131n kaybettirdi\u011fi getiri) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcr.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD Nisan istihdam raporunu bekliyor. Rapor, Fed\u2019in bir sonraki ad\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 etkileyebilir. Daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc istihdam verisi, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 destekleyerek dolar cinsinden fiyatlanan alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratabilir.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n, de\u011fer saklama arac\u0131 ve \u00f6deme arac\u0131 olarak yayg\u0131n kullan\u0131l\u0131r; ayr\u0131ca \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (belirsizlikte yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n y\u00f6neldi\u011fi varl\u0131k) olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr. Enflasyona ve para birimlerindeki zay\u0131flamaya kar\u015f\u0131 \u201ckoruma\u201d (hedge: risk azaltma ama\u00e7l\u0131 pozisyon) olarak da kullan\u0131l\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Merkez bankalar\u0131 alt\u0131n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck sahipleridir ve rezervlerini \u00e7e\u015fitlendirmek i\u00e7in al\u0131m yapabilir. 2022\u2019de 1.136 ton, yakla\u015f\u0131k 70 milyar dolar de\u011ferinde alt\u0131n eklediler; bu, y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda kay\u0131tlardaki en y\u00fcksek toplam oldu.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n, \u00e7o\u011fu zaman ABD Dolar\u0131 ve ABD Hazine tahvilleriyle (Treasuries: ABD devlet tahvilleri) ters y\u00f6nde hareket eder. Hisseler y\u00fckseldi\u011finde genelde zay\u0131flar, piyasalarda sert sat\u0131\u015flar oldu\u011funda g\u00fc\u00e7lenir.<\/p>\n
May\u0131s 2026\u2019da ise tablo tersine d\u00f6nd\u00fc: S\u00f6z konusu bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131 ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n sonlar\u0131nda bozulunca Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilim yeniden artt\u0131. Alt\u0131n o tarihten beri yeni bir taban buldu; fiyatlar \u015fu anda 5.150 dolar civar\u0131nda yatay seyrediyor. Yenilenen \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma, alt\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman \u00f6zelli\u011fini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi; bu etki, 2022\u2019deki merkez bankas\u0131 al\u0131m dalgas\u0131ndan beri bu kadar belirgin g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l faiz indirimi bekleniyordu; ancak inat\u00e7\u0131 enflasyon, Fed\u2019i \u015fahin (faizleri y\u00fcksek tutma e\u011filiminde) \u00e7izgide tuttu. Fed\u2019in politika faizi (Federal Funds Rate: bankalar\u0131n birbirine gecelik bor\u00e7 verme faizi) son iki \u00e7eyrektir %6,0 seviyesinde. Yeni bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimali de daha fazla konu\u015fuluyor. Bu durum, faiz getirisi olmayan (non-yielding) bir varl\u0131k olan alt\u0131n\u0131 elde tutman\u0131n maliyetini y\u00fckseltiyor.<\/p>\n
Bu haftaki Nisan 2026 T\u00dcFE (CPI: t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi) verisinde \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun (g\u0131da ve enerji hari\u00e7) y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,9 gelmesi, enflasyonun yava\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131 bekleyenleri hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131na u\u011fratt\u0131. Benzer \u015fekilde, ge\u00e7en haftaki tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam (non-farm payrolls: tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerde yarat\u0131lan istihdam) verisi 280 bin art\u0131\u015fla g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc geldi; bu da Fed\u2019in yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirmesi i\u00e7in gerek\u00e7eyi zay\u0131flatt\u0131. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar, \u015fimdilik alt\u0131nda belirgin bir yukar\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, alt\u0131n i\u00e7in iki y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir \u00e7eki\u015fme yarat\u0131yor: K\u00fcresel istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k g\u00fcvenli liman talebini art\u0131r\u0131rken, y\u00fcksek faizler alt\u0131n tutman\u0131n maliyetini y\u00fckseltiyor. Bu belirsizlikte yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, alt\u0131n vadeli i\u015flemlerinde \u201cuzun volatilite\u201d (fiyat oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131na oynama) stratejilerine bakabilir; \u00f6rne\u011fin straddle veya strangle (opsiyon stratejileri: fiyat\u0131n hangi y\u00f6ne gidece\u011finden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z, sert harekete g\u00f6re kazan\u00e7 hedefler) sat\u0131n almak gibi. Bu pozisyonlar, fiyat\u0131n yukar\u0131 ya da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc hareket etmesinden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n opsiyonlar\u0131nda \u201cima edilen volatilite\u201d (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen oynakl\u0131k) art\u0131yor. Bu, piyasalar\u0131n sert hareket bekledi\u011fini ancak y\u00f6n\u00fcn net olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Oynakl\u0131k y\u00fckseldi\u011finde opsiyonlar pahalan\u0131r; buna kar\u015f\u0131n Fed a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 veya Orta Do\u011fu\u2019dan gelecek yeni haberlerle ani hareket olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 da artar. Piyasa s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda; t\u00fcrev (derivative: dayanak varl\u0131ktan t\u00fcretilen s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) pozisyonlar\u0131, trendden \u00e7ok k\u0131r\u0131lmaya g\u00f6re \u015fekilleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131nda kritik viraj: XAU\/USD 4.700\u2019e t\u0131rman\u0131p haftan\u0131n zirvesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. ABD-\u0130ran iyimserli\u011fi enflasyon kayg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 t\u00f6rp\u00fclerken, Fed-faiz ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar bask\u0131s\u0131 g\u00fcvenli liman talebiyle \u00e7eki\u015fiyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46336","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46336","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46336"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46336\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46336"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46336"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46336"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}