AUD\/USD \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,8 y\u00fckseldi ve 0,7280\u2019i g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 0,7250\u2019nin \u00fczerinde kalamayarak 0,7240 civar\u0131nda kapand\u0131. Parite d\u00f6rt y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesindeydi ve zirveye yak\u0131n seviyelerde \u00fcst g\u00f6lgelerin (mum grafikte fiyat\u0131n g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yukar\u0131 gidip kapan\u0131\u015fa do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekildi\u011fini g\u00f6steren fitiller) tekrarland\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar\u0131, Ba\u015fkan Trump\u2019\u0131n Pakistan\u2019\u0131n arabuluculu\u011funda \u0130ran\u2019la y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclen g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler s\u0131ras\u0131nda H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki \u201cProject Freedom\u201d operasyonlar\u0131n\u0131 duraklatmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan zay\u0131flad\u0131. \u0130ran, son ABD teklifini resm\u00ee bir yan\u0131t vermeden inceledi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. 8 Nisan\u2019dan beri y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fckte olan ate\u015fkese ra\u011fmen bo\u011faz, ticari gemi trafi\u011fine b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde kapal\u0131 kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de nisan ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin ADP \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam\u0131 (resm\u00ee tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdamdan ayr\u0131, \u00f6zel bir kurumun yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6nc\u00fc istihdam g\u00f6stergesi) 109 bin ile 99 bin beklentinin \u00fczerinde geldi. Piyasalar ise daha \u00e7ok risk i\u015ftah\u0131na (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme e\u011filimi) odakland\u0131. Dikkatler per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Avustralya mart Ticaret Dengesi\u2019ne (ihracat ile ithalat fark\u0131) ve cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam\u0131na (NFP: tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerdeki ayl\u0131k istihdam de\u011fi\u015fimi) \u00e7evrildi. NFP i\u00e7in beklenti 60 bin, \u00f6nceki de\u011fer 178 bindi.<\/p>\n
15 dakikal\u0131k grafikte AUD\/USD 0,7239\u2019da i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve g\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131 olan 0,7205\u2019in \u00fczerinde kald\u0131; Stokastik RSI (a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\/a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m sinyali arayan momentum g\u00f6stergesi) 60\u2019a yak\u0131nd\u0131. G\u00fcnl\u00fck grafikte parite 0,7239 ile 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n (\u00fcssel hareketli ortalama: son fiyatlara daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k veren ortalama) 0,7072 ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n 0,6826 \u00fczerinde seyretti; Stokastik RSI 53 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131.<\/p>\n
AUD\u2019u etkileyen ba\u015fl\u0131klar aras\u0131nda RBA\u2019n\u0131n faizleri, %2\u20133 enflasyon hedefi, \u00c7in talebi ve demir cevheri yer al\u0131yor. Demir cevheri ihracat\u0131 2021\u2019de y\u0131ll\u0131k 118 milyar dolara ula\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ticaret dengesi ve genel risk alg\u0131s\u0131 da para birimini etkiler.<\/p>\n
May\u0131s 2025\u2019in ba\u015f\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fcp bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, AUD\/USD\u2019de yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivmenin 0,7240 civar\u0131nda zirveye yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyordu. Piyasa risk i\u015ftah\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019de tansiyonun d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi beklentisiyle hareket ediyordu; ancak o d\u00f6nemde g\u00f6r\u00fclen ivme kayb\u0131 \u00f6nemli bir uyar\u0131yd\u0131. Bug\u00fcn parite 0,6550 civar\u0131nda \u00e7ok daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerde seyrederken, d\u00f6rt y\u0131ll\u0131k zirveler geride kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Kritik k\u0131r\u0131lma, Nisan 2025 ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam verisiyle geldi. Piyasa 60 bin gibi zay\u0131f bir art\u0131\u015f beklerken ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen veri 245 bin oldu. Bu s\u00fcrpriz, Fed politikas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik fiyatlaman\u0131n h\u0131zla de\u011fi\u015fmesine ve pariteyi yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yan genel dolar zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n sona ermesine yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Bu geli\u015fme, 0,7250 yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki \u201cyorulma\u201d sinyallerinin (y\u00fckseli\u015fin g\u00fcc kaybetti\u011fine i\u015faret eden teknik i\u015faretler) sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 oldu\u011funu da teyit etti.<\/p>\n
Ard\u0131ndan Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (RBA) da Avustralya dolar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe katk\u0131 verdi. Enflasyonun yava\u015flamas\u0131 ve t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla RBA, Mart 2026\u2019da politika faizini 25 baz puan indirerek %4,10\u2019a \u00e7ekti (baz puan: faizin y\u00fczde 0,01\u2019lik ad\u0131m\u0131). Fed ise faizini %5,50\u2019de sabit tuttu. Bu faiz fark\u0131, Avustralya dolar\u0131 \u00fczerinde bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. Faiz fark\u0131, AUD\/USD\u2019de k\u0131sa pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 \u201cta\u015f\u0131ma getirisi\u201d (carry: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli para birimini al\u0131p y\u00fcksek faizli para birimini satma\/ta\u015f\u0131ma fark\u0131ndan gelir) nedeniyle cazip k\u0131lmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
\u00c7in ekonomisine dair endi\u015feler de Avustralya dolar\u0131n\u0131 olumsuz etkiledi. Son veriler \u00c7in\u2019de sanayi \u00fcretiminin yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, emlak sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi bask\u0131lamaya devam etti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu tablo, demir cevheri fiyat\u0131n\u0131 ge\u00e7en y\u0131l ton ba\u015f\u0131na 120 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerindeyken bug\u00fcn 105 dolar civar\u0131na \u00e7ekti. Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ihracat kalemlerinden biri oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in emtia fiyat\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, para birimine talebi de zay\u0131flat\u0131r.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, AUD\/USD\u2019deki y\u00fckseli\u015fleri sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirebilir; \u00f6zellikle 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamaya (trend takipte kullan\u0131lan ortalama) do\u011fru y\u00fckseli\u015flerde. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 trendin (genel d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimi) s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc tabloda, put opsiyonu almak (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan hak; risk primle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131d\u0131r) y\u0131l i\u00e7i dip olan 0,6480\u2019in alt\u0131na olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lmaya s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle pozisyon almak i\u00e7in bir y\u00f6ntem olabilir. Ayr\u0131ca \u201cuzakta\u201d kalan al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 satmak (out-of-the-money call: mevcut fiyat\u0131n \u00fczerinde kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 opsiyon; prim geliri i\u00e7in sat\u0131l\u0131r) da, yukar\u0131 potansiyelin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle prim toplama stratejisi olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n
Yakla\u015fan Avustralya istihdam verileri ve bir sonraki ABD enflasyon raporu yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli. Avustralya\u2019dan zay\u0131f istihdam veya ABD\u2019den g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc enflasyon, mevcut d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir. Bu nedenle y\u00fckseli\u015flerde k\u0131sa pozisyonu korumak veya yeni sat\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar denemek, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in daha temkinli yakla\u015f\u0131m olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
AUD\/USD d\u00f6rt y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesinde 0,7250\u2019de yorulup geri d\u00f6nd\u00fc; H\u00fcrm\u00fcz ve veri ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 belirledi. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc NFP, Fed-RBA faiz fark\u0131 ve \u00c7in\/demir cevheri bask\u0131s\u0131yla parite 0,6550\u2019ye indi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46332","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46332","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46332"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46332\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46332"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46332"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46332"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}