BNY, iFlow Carry endeksinin ge\u00e7en hafta bir seansta k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine **negatif istatistiksel anlaml\u0131l\u0131k** b\u00f6lgesine ge\u00e7ti\u011fini bildirdi. Bu hareket, veri bulunan yerlerde **para birimi sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131** ile buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k gelen **10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirileri** aras\u0131nda **ters y\u00f6nl\u00fc** bir uyuma i\u015faret etti. *(\u201cNegatif istatistiksel anlaml\u0131l\u0131k\u201d, g\u00f6stergenin ola\u011fan seyrin tersine d\u00f6nmesini ve bu d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn tesad\u00fcf olma ihtimalinin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fclmesini anlat\u0131r. \u201c10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisi\u201d, devletin 10 y\u0131l vadeli bor\u00e7lanma faizidir.)*<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en hafta, **y\u00fcksek faiz veren** 15 para biriminin dokuzu toplamda net sat\u0131ld\u0131. *(\u201cY\u00fcksek faiz veren para birimi\u201d, faiz oran\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek olan ve bu y\u00fczden yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n getiri i\u00e7in tercih etti\u011fi para birimidir.)*<\/p>\n
BNY, haftada yaln\u0131zca bir para biriminde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sat\u0131\u015f kaydetti: Kolombiya pesosu (COP). Haftal\u0131k ak\u0131m b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc 1,0\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerindeydi. Bu ak\u0131mlar, keskin oynakl\u0131k ve zor **\u00f6demeler dengesi** ko\u015fullar\u0131na ra\u011fmen bir s\u00fcre dayan\u0131kl\u0131 kalan carry i\u015flemlerinde pozisyon azaltma veya hafif k\u00e2r realizasyonu olarak tan\u0131mland\u0131. *(\u201cCarry trade\/carry i\u015flemi\u201d, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli para biriminden bor\u00e7lan\u0131p y\u00fcksek faizli para biriminde yat\u0131r\u0131m yaparak faiz fark\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen stratejidir. \u201c\u00d6demeler dengesi\u201d, \u00fclkenin d\u0131\u015f d\u00fcnya ile yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 mal, hizmet ve sermaye hareketlerinin toplam tablosudur.)*<\/p>\n
Toplant\u0131 yapan merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n, talebin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na ve ko\u015fullar izin verdi\u011finde **faiz indirimi** olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret eden bir dil kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi. Notta ayr\u0131ca piyasalar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi desteklemeye ve daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck **nominal faizlere** kayabilece\u011fi riski yer ald\u0131. *(\u201cNominal faiz\u201d, enflasyondan ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lmam\u0131\u015f, ilan edilen faiz oran\u0131d\u0131r.)*<\/p>\n
BNY, carry pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7o\u011funun geli\u015fen piyasalarda oldu\u011funu belirterek, y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda politika y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fimi beklentileri g\u00fc\u00e7lenirse **uzun pozisyonlarda** k\u00e2r sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zlanabilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131 yapt\u0131. *(\u201cUzun pozisyon\u201d, bir varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n de\u011fer kazanaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle al\u0131nm\u0131\u015f pozisyondur.)* Ayr\u0131ca iFlow Carry g\u00f6stergesinin bu y\u0131l uzun s\u00fcreli bir negatif istatistiksel anlaml\u0131l\u0131k d\u00f6nemi g\u00f6stermedi\u011fini ekledi.<\/p>\n
BNY, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l buna benzer iki d\u00f6nem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc; bunlar\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyrekteki \u201cliberation day\u201d tarifeleri ve d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekteki yapay zek\u00e2 temal\u0131 de\u011ferlemelerle ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. 2022\u20132023\u2019ten bu yana benzer ba\u015fka bir faz olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. *(\u201cTarife\u201d, ithalata uygulanan ek vergidir. \u201cDe\u011ferleme\u201d, bir varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\/piyasan\u0131n fiyat\u0131n\u0131n kazan\u00e7lara veya beklentilere g\u00f6re pahal\u0131\/ucuz olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclmesidir.)*<\/p>\n
Pop\u00fcler carry i\u015flemlerinde ivme kayb\u0131na dair i\u015faretler g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor. iFlow Carry endeksi, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ters ili\u015fki sinyali verdi; bu da yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n k\u00e2r almak i\u00e7in y\u00fcksek faizli para birimlerini satt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc uzun bir d\u00f6nemin ard\u0131ndan bu tablo \u00f6nemli bir de\u011fi\u015fime i\u015faret ediyor; ge\u00e7en hafta izlenen 15 ana para biriminin dokuzu sat\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 k\u00e2r realizasyonunun yay\u0131lmas\u0131 olas\u0131. JPMorgan Geli\u015fen Piyasalar Para Birimi Endeksi, y\u0131la g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ba\u015flad\u0131ktan sonra son bir ayda yatay seyretti; bu da yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 temkininin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Kolombiya pesosu belirgin bir sat\u0131\u015f hedefi oldu; bu durum di\u011fer y\u00fcksek faizli para birimleri i\u00e7in de erken bir sinyal olabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu de\u011fi\u015fimin temel nedeni, k\u00fcresel merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n s\u00f6ylemini yumu\u015fatmaya ba\u015flamas\u0131. Talebin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair kayg\u0131lar daha a\u00e7\u0131k dile getiriliyor. Brezilya ve G\u00fcney Afrika gibi ekonomilerde a\u00e7\u0131klanan son **imalat PMI** verilerinin 50 e\u015fi\u011finin alt\u0131na gerilemesi buna \u00f6rnek. *(\u201cPMI\/Sat\u0131n Alma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi\u201d, \u015firket y\u00f6neticilerinin anketine dayal\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6stergesidir; 50\u2019nin alt\u0131 daralmaya i\u015faret eder.)* Bu da y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, riskin h\u0131zla artabilece\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor. Piyasa merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n fiili ad\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 beklemeden pozisyon kapatmaya y\u00f6nelebilir ve k\u00e2r sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 \u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 h\u0131zlanabilir. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faiz indirimi beklentileri vadeli piyasalarda \u00f6teleniyor olsa bile, geli\u015fen piyasalarda sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131 ayr\u0131 bir kanaldan ba\u015flayabilir. Bu ihtimale kar\u015f\u0131 carry pozisyonlar\u0131nda **kald\u0131ra\u00e7** azalt\u0131lmas\u0131 g\u00fcndeme gelebilir. *(\u201cKald\u0131ra\u00e7\u201d, bor\u00e7 veya t\u00fcrev ara\u00e7larla pozisyon b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc sermayenin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kararak getiriyi ve riski art\u0131rmakt\u0131r.)*<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Carry trade\u2019de alarm: BNY iFlow Carry endeksi k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli negatif anlaml\u0131l\u0131\u011fa indi. Y\u00fcksek faizli 15 paran\u0131n 9\u2019u sat\u0131ld\u0131; COP \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcme, olas\u0131 faiz indirimleriyle EM uzunlarda k\u00e2r sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46323","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46323","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46323"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46323\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46323"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46323"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46323"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}