ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Trump\u2019\u0131n 14\u201315 May\u0131s\u2019ta \u00c7in\u2019i ziyaret etmesi bekleniyor. Her iki \u00fclke de ili\u015fkileri istikrarl\u0131 tutmay\u0131 ve ge\u00e7en ekimde var\u0131lan g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergisi ate\u015fkesini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeyi hedefliyor.<\/p>\n
Beklenen ana g\u00fcndem, mevcut ate\u015fkesin korunmas\u0131 ve \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131n \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc alanlarda ek taviz aranmas\u0131. K\u0131sa vadeli sonu\u00e7lar, kapsaml\u0131 bir \u201cyeniden ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7\u201d yerine hassas olmayan ticaret alanlar\u0131yla s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Yaz\u0131, son medya haberlerinin \u201cziyaret \u00f6ncesi pozisyon alma\u201d olarak okundu\u011funu belirtiyor. Ziyaretin, artan ticaret engelleri ve tedarik zinciri aksakl\u0131klar\u0131 (\u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcn \u00fcreticiden t\u00fcketiciye uzanan tedarik hatt\u0131ndaki bozulmalar) ortam\u0131nda tansiyonun yeniden y\u00fckselmesini \u00f6nleyebilece\u011fi ifade ediliyor.<\/p>\n
Haz\u0131rl\u0131klar\u0131n pratik ve anla\u015fma odakl\u0131 oldu\u011fu; Paris\u2019te mart ay\u0131nda yap\u0131lan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmenin ticarete odakland\u0131\u011f\u0131 aktar\u0131l\u0131yor. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l Busan\u2019daki ate\u015fkesin olas\u0131 bir model olabilece\u011fine de\u011finiliyor.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcndeme gelebilecek ad\u0131mlar aras\u0131nda se\u00e7ili \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergisi indirimi var. Di\u011fer se\u00e7enekler; ABD\u2019nin g\u00fcmr\u00fck d\u0131\u015f\u0131 k\u0131s\u0131tlar\u0131 (vergi olmayan engeller: kota, lisans, d\u00fczenleme gibi ticareti s\u0131n\u0131rlayan kurallar) baz\u0131 alanlarda uzatmas\u0131 ya da gev\u015fetmesi, \u00c7in\u2019in tar\u0131m, enerji ve u\u00e7ak gibi ABD mallar\u0131ndan al\u0131m yapmas\u0131 ve \u00c7in\u2019in kritik mineralleri (batarya ve y\u00fcksek teknoloji \u00fcretiminde gerekli stratejik madenler) tedarik etmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi olarak s\u0131ralan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019te Busan ate\u015fkesinden sonra g\u00f6r\u00fclen istikrara bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, mevcut tablo piyasalarda sert hareket yaratacak bir geli\u015fmeden \u00e7ok, \u201cpragmatik\u201d bir ili\u015fkiyi i\u015faret ediyor. Temel ama\u00e7 mevcut durumu korumak; bu da piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 (fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve geni\u015f dalgalanmas\u0131) s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tutabilir. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in, fiyat\u0131n bant i\u00e7inde gidip geldi\u011fi d\u00f6nemlere uygun stratejiler, b\u00fcy\u00fck bir k\u0131r\u0131lmaya bahis oynamaktan daha \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu arka planla, ticaret haberlerine duyarl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck endekslerde oynakl\u0131k sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir. CBOE Volatilite Endeksi (VIX: S&P 500 i\u00e7in beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d olarak izlenen g\u00f6stergesi) son d\u00f6nemde 14-16 band\u0131nda; uzun d\u00f6nem ortalamas\u0131 olan 19\u2019un belirgin alt\u0131nda. Siyasi istikrar\u0131n VIX\u2019i d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tutmas\u0131 olas\u0131. Bu ortamda endeks ETF\u2019lerinde k\u0131sa strangle veya iron condor gibi stratejiler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir (her ikisi de opsiyon stratejisidir; fiyat\u0131n dar aral\u0131kta kalmas\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7 hedefler).<\/p>\n
\u00c7in\u2019in ABD\u2019den tar\u0131m ve enerji al\u0131m\u0131 gibi somut tavizler, daha hedefli f\u0131rsatlar yarat\u0131r. \u00c7in\u2019e ABD soya fasulyesi ihracat\u0131 \u00f6nemli bir g\u00f6sterge ve bu y\u0131l istikrarl\u0131 seyretti; yeni al\u0131m anla\u015fmalar\u0131 fiyatlar i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir taban olu\u015fturabilir. Bu nedenle tar\u0131m emtia ETF\u2019lerinde put sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 (opsiyon sat\u0131\u015f\u0131yla prim geliri elde etmeyi ama\u00e7layan, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131ysa avantajl\u0131 olabilen i\u015flem) makul g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k \u201chassas olmayan\u201d sekt\u00f6r vurgusu, ileri seviye yar\u0131 iletkenler gibi k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc alanlarda yukar\u0131 hareketin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. ABD\u2019nin \u00c7in\u2019le d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n (ithalat\u0131n ihracattan fazla olmas\u0131) ge\u00e7en y\u0131l on y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne gerilemesinde, teknolojiye y\u00f6nelik hedefli k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar etkili olmu\u015ftu. Bu nedenle en \u00e7ok k\u0131s\u0131tlanan teknoloji hisselerinde al\u0131m opsiyonu (call) almak riskli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc kapsaml\u0131 bir at\u0131l\u0131m beklenmiyor.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131nda, \u00f6zellikle USD\/CNY paritesinde (ABD dolar\u0131\/\u00c7in yuan\u0131 kuru) de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oynakl\u0131k olas\u0131. \u00c7in, bu t\u00fcr \u201ci\u015flem bazl\u0131\u201d anla\u015fmalar\u0131 desteklemek i\u00e7in istikrar ar\u0131yor. Kur aylard\u0131r dar bir bantta hareket ediyor; sakin bir diplomatik sonu\u00e7 bu e\u011filimi g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir. Bu da yuan i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fck y\u00f6n bahisleri yerine bant i\u00e7i i\u015flem yakla\u015f\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 destekler.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Piyasalar nefesini tuttu: Trump\u2019\u0131n 14\u201315 May\u0131s \u00c7in ziyareti, g\u00fcmr\u00fck ate\u015fkesini koruyup s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tavizlerle tansiyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrebilir. Beklenti \u201creset\u201d de\u011fil; bant hareketi, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck VIX, volatilite sat\u0131\u015f\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46319","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46319","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46319"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46319\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46319"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46319"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46319"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}