BNY\u2019nin Geoff Yu\u2019su, Latin Amerika d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131 (FX: farkl\u0131 para birimlerinin al\u0131n\u0131p sat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 piyasa) ve hisse senetlerinin art\u0131k tek bir \u201ctoplam getiri\u201d (total return: fiyat de\u011fi\u015fimi + faiz\/temett\u00fc gibi t\u00fcm gelirlerin birlikte de\u011ferlendirildi\u011fi getiri) pozisyonu gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. iFlow verilerine g\u00f6re, Latin Amerika\u2019daki her para birimi h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u201cnet fazla ta\u015f\u0131nm\u0131\u015f\u201d durumda (net overheld: yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n normalin \u00fczerinde ayn\u0131 pozisyona y\u0131\u011f\u0131lmas\u0131, kalabal\u0131k i\u015flem).<\/p>\n
Yak\u0131n zamana kadar b\u00f6lgede devlet tahvili piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n da tamam\u0131 fazla ta\u015f\u0131nm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Yu, bu tahvil pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ancak \u00fclkelere g\u00f6re ayn\u0131 h\u0131zda olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ekliyor.<\/p>\n
Meksika\u2019da Yu, piyasalar daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizleri fiyatlarken d\u00f6viz riskine kar\u015f\u0131 korunma (FX hedging: kur hareketlerine kar\u015f\u0131 zarar ihtimalini azaltmak i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan i\u015flemler) talebinin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. Bu durum, bu hafta Banxico\u2019nun (Meksika Merkez Bankas\u0131) 25 baz puan (bp: y\u00fczde 0,01; 25 bp = 0,25 puan) faiz indirimi beklentisi \u00f6ncesinde ya\u015fan\u0131yor. Buna ra\u011fmen Meksika devlet tahvillerine talep g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kal\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Yu\u2019ya g\u00f6re Banxico, b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi destekleyen daha gev\u015fek bir politika duru\u015funa yakla\u015f\u0131yor (stimulus: ekonomiyi canland\u0131rmaya y\u00f6nelik ad\u0131mlar). Ayr\u0131ca y\u00fcksek reel faiz tamponunun azalt\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor (reel faiz: faiz oran\u0131ndan enflasyonun ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f h\u00e2li; tampon\/buffer: kur i\u00e7in \u201ckoruyucu\u201d cazibe). Pozitif reel faizi korumak i\u00e7in 100 baz puan gerekti\u011fini belirtiyor.<\/p>\n
Yu, ABD kaynakl\u0131 \u00fclkeye \u00f6zg\u00fc risklerin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Bunu, politika beklentilerindeki de\u011fi\u015fimin daha h\u0131zl\u0131 yans\u0131mas\u0131na (spillover: bir piyasadan\/\u00fclkeden di\u011ferine h\u0131zl\u0131 etki) ve yakla\u015fan ticaret g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinde olas\u0131 sorunlara ba\u011fl\u0131yor. Piyasalar gelecekteki faiz ad\u0131mlar\u0131na odaklanmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrse kur riskinden korunma artabilir; buna kar\u015f\u0131n mali geni\u015fleme s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in (fiscal impulse: b\u00fct\u00e7e harcamalar\u0131\/vergi ad\u0131mlar\u0131yla ekonomiye verilen destek) tahvil taraf\u0131 diren\u00e7li kalabilir.<\/p>\n
Meksika\u2019da piyasa, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n bu hafta faiz indirece\u011fine haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor; Banxico toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faizin 25 baz puan d\u00fc\u015ferek %10,75\u2019e inmesi genel beklenti. Nisan enflasyonunun %4,5\u2019e gerilemesiyle b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi desteklemeyi ama\u00e7layan bu y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi, daha zay\u0131f peso riskine kar\u015f\u0131 korunma iste\u011fini art\u0131r\u0131yor. Buna ra\u011fmen \u00fclkenin devlet tahvillerine yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc; tutar 75 milyar dolar civar\u0131nda.<\/p>\n
Bu durum, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n Meksika tahvillerini be\u011fenip pesonun y\u00f6n\u00fcnden endi\u015fe etmesiyle bir ayr\u0131\u015fma yarat\u0131yor. Merkez bankas\u0131, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l para birimini cazip k\u0131lan y\u00fcksek reel faizi kademeli olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Faiz tamponunun bilin\u00e7li \u015fekilde daralt\u0131lmas\u0131, i\u00e7 ekonomiyi desteklemek i\u00e7in daha zay\u0131f bir kura daha fazla tolerans anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (derivative: de\u011feri kur\/ faiz\/ emtia gibi ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) kullananlar i\u00e7in bu, pesodaki olas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunmay\u0131 art\u0131rma zaman\u0131. Mevcut pozisyonlar\u0131 de\u011fer kayb\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in USD\/MXN al\u0131m opsiyonu (call option: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) almak veya vadeli d\u00f6viz i\u015flemleri (forward: gelecekte belirli kurdan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m anla\u015fmas\u0131) kullanmak de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Pandemi sonras\u0131 d\u00f6nemin \u201cs\u00fcper peso\u201d (a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc peso e\u011filimi) g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc ivme kaybediyor.<\/p>\n
Acil durum duygusu ABD kaynakl\u0131 risklerle art\u0131yor. Piyasalar, 2026\u2019da ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) yaln\u0131zca bir faiz indirimi yapaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisine \u00e7ekildi; bu dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine, geli\u015fen \u00fclke para birimlerinin bask\u0131 g\u00f6rmesine yol a\u00e7\u0131yor. Buna yakla\u015fan ticaret m\u00fczakereleri de eklenince peso i\u00e7in ortam zorla\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Artan belirsizlik opsiyon piyasas\u0131na da yans\u0131yor: Pesoda 3 ayl\u0131k ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n \u201cbeklenen oynakl\u0131k\u201d olarak i\u015faret etti\u011fi seviye) y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndaki %10\u2019dan %12,5\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu oynakl\u0131k, kurda sert harekete kar\u015f\u0131 kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen yap\u0131larla (trade structuring: birden fazla enstr\u00fcmanla strateji kurma) de\u011ferlendirilebilir. \u00d6zet: Kur riskini, h\u00e2l\u00e2 cazip kalan tahvil getirilerinden ay\u0131rmak gerekir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Latam\u2019da FX ve hisseler \u201ctoplam getiri\u201d i\u015flemi gibi; t\u00fcm paralar h\u00e2l\u00e2 kalabal\u0131k pozisyonda. Tahvil ta\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Meksika\u2019da Banxico indirimiyle hedge talebi, volatilite art\u0131yor\u2014tahvil g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46316","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46316","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46316"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46316\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46316"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46316"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46316"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}