{"id":46312,"date":"2026-05-06T22:55:49","date_gmt":"2026-05-06T22:55:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/eur-usd-olasi-abd-iran-anlasmasi-umutlariyla-yukseliyor-petrol-duserken-fedin-faiz-indirimi-beklentileri-yeniden-gucleniyor\/"},"modified":"2026-05-06T22:55:49","modified_gmt":"2026-05-06T22:55:49","slug":"eur-usd-olasi-abd-iran-anlasmasi-umutlariyla-yukseliyor-petrol-duserken-fedin-faiz-indirimi-beklentileri-yeniden-gucleniyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/eur-usd-olasi-abd-iran-anlasmasi-umutlariyla-yukseliyor-petrol-duserken-fedin-faiz-indirimi-beklentileri-yeniden-gucleniyor\/","title":{"rendered":"EUR\/USD, olas\u0131 ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131 umutlar\u0131yla y\u00fckseliyor; petrol d\u00fc\u015ferken Fed\u2019in faiz indirimi beklentileri yeniden g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>EUR\/USD, ABD-\u0130ran aras\u0131nda olas\u0131 bir anla\u015fmaya yakla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair haberlerin ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131p Euro\u2019yu desteklemesiyle \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc y\u00fckseldi. Parite 1,1796 ile 17 Nisan\u2019dan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeyi g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 1,1750 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,50 art\u0131da kald\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Axios, Washington ile Tahran\u2019\u0131n sava\u015f\u0131n sona erdirilmesi ve ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 n\u00fckleer g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler i\u00e7in bir \u00e7er\u00e7eve (genel yol haritas\u0131) olu\u015fturulmas\u0131 konusunda anla\u015fmaya yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yazd\u0131. Habere g\u00f6re \u0130ran, n\u00fckleer zenginle\u015ftirmeyi (uranyumu daha y\u00fcksek safl\u0131k seviyesine \u00e7\u0131karma s\u00fcrecini) duraklatabilir; ABD ise yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 kald\u0131r\u0131p \u0130ran\u2019a ait dondurulmu\u015f milyarlarca dolar\u0131 serbest b\u0131rakabilir. Her iki taraf\u0131n da H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresindeki ablukay\u0131 sona erdirmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n<h3>Market Reaction And Positioning<\/h3>\n<p>Haber sonras\u0131 petrol fiyatlar\u0131 gerilerken ABD Hazine tahvili getirileri (tahvil faizleri) d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu durum, enerji kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon (enerji fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n genel fiyatlara yans\u0131mas\u0131) endi\u015fesini azaltt\u0131 ve Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) politika s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ve finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma) bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 hafifletti. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, y\u0131l sonuna kadar Fed\u2019in faiz indirimi yapabilece\u011fi beklentisini yeniden fiyatlamaya y\u00f6neldi.<\/p>\n<p>EUR\/USD\u2019deki y\u00fckseli\u015f, Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran anla\u015fmay\u0131 kabul etmezse askeri se\u00e7ene\u011fin yeniden g\u00fcndeme gelebilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131 nedeniyle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ISNA ajans\u0131, haberin baz\u0131 b\u00f6l\u00fcmlerini \u201cspek\u00fclasyon\u201d (kan\u0131ts\u0131z yorum) olarak niteledi ve ABD taleplerini \u201ciddial\u0131 ve ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i olmayan\u201d diye tan\u0131mlad\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>ABD Dolar\u0131 daha sonra dengelendi; DXY (Dolar Endeksi: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks) g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 97,62 dip seviyesinden sonra 97,98 civar\u0131na geldi. ADP verisi, \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam\u0131n\u0131n (devlet d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam) nisan ay\u0131nda 109 bin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, marttaki 61 binin \u00fczerinde ve 99 bin beklentisinin de \u00fcst\u00fcnde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n<p>St. Louis Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Alberto Musalem, enflasyonun \u201chedefin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde\u201d oldu\u011funu ve \u201c\u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun\u201d (g\u0131da ve enerji gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) yak\u0131ndan izlenmesi gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. G\u00f6zler per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131na (i\u015fsiz kalanlar\u0131n ilk kez yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ba\u015fvuru say\u0131s\u0131) ve cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdama (devlet d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki toplam istihdam de\u011fi\u015fimi) \u00e7evrildi.<\/p>\n<h3>Lessons From Prior Geopolitical Spikes<\/h3>\n<p>T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 (opsiyon, vadeli i\u015flem gibi s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerle i\u015flem yapanlar) i\u00e7in bu, EUR\/USD y\u00fckseli\u015flerinde \u201cvolatilite satmay\u0131\u201d (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131 beklentisinin d\u00fc\u015fmesine oynayarak prim geliri hedeflemek) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karabilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d (kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut fiyattan daha uzak, ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 satmak veya 1,0950 diren\u00e7 seviyesinin (yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketi zorla\u015ft\u0131ran seviye) \u00fczerinde \u201cbear call spread\u201d (ayn\u0131 vadede daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan al\u0131m opsiyonu sat\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan al\u0131m opsiyonu alarak risk s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131ran strateji) kurmak, iyimserli\u011fin zay\u0131flamas\u0131ndan opsiyon primi (opsiyon s\u00f6zle\u015fmesinin fiyat\u0131) toplamay\u0131 hedefler. VIX (ABD borsas\u0131nda beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6steren endeks) \u015fu s\u0131ralar 14,5 civar\u0131nda; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck say\u0131l\u0131r ancak haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131yla h\u0131zla y\u00fckselebilir ve volatilite sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in daha iyi seviyeler olu\u015fabilir.<\/p>\n<p><b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login\">start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>S\u00fcrpriz \u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131 sinyali piyasalar\u0131 sallad\u0131: Dolar zay\u0131flad\u0131, EUR\/USD 1,1796\u2019y\u0131 test edip 1,1750\u2019ye \u00e7ekildi. Petrol ve tahvil faizleri gerilerken Fed indirimi beklentileri canland\u0131, veri ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 izleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46312","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46312","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46312"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46312\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46312"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46312"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46312"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}