AUD\/USD, ABD ile \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 bitirmeyi hedefleyen bir anla\u015fmaya yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair haberin ard\u0131ndan 0,7240 seviyesine do\u011fru y\u00fckseldi. Parite, 0,7239\u2019da g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken 0,7277\u2019ye kadar \u00e7\u0131karak Haziran 2022\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeyi test etti.<\/p>\n
K\u00fcresel enerji ak\u0131\u015f\u0131nda uzun s\u00fcreli kesinti ya\u015fanaca\u011f\u0131 endi\u015felerinin azalmas\u0131, Avustralya Dolar\u0131 dahil risk i\u015ftah\u0131na duyarl\u0131 para birimlerine talebi art\u0131rd\u0131. ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na y\u00f6nelik \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (risk art\u0131nca tercih edilen korunakl\u0131 para birimi) talebinin zay\u0131flamas\u0131 da y\u00fckseli\u015fi destekledi.<\/p>\n
Kazan\u00e7lar, ABD\u2019de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelen \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam verisi sonras\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131. ADP, Nisan ay\u0131nda 109 bin istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bildirerek 99 bin beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131; Mart verisi de 61 bine revize edildi.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6rt saatlik grafikte AUD\/USD, 20 periyotluk SMA\u2019n\u0131n (Basit Hareketli Ortalama: belirli say\u0131da mumun ortalamas\u0131yla trendi g\u00f6steren g\u00f6sterge) 0,7197 ve 100 periyotluk SMA\u2019n\u0131n 0,7166 \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. RSI (G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi: fiyat\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\/a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m durumunu \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) 63 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Diren\u00e7 seviyeleri 0,7242 ve 0,7251 olarak izlenirken, destek 0,7232 ve 0,7229\u2019da; daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da 0,7197 ve 0,7166 seviyeleri takip edildi.<\/p>\n
Mevcut g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131 umudunun Avustralya Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli destekledi\u011fi d\u00f6neme benziyor. Jeopolitik risk alg\u0131s\u0131 ile ABD ekonomisinin temel g\u00fcc\u00fc aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7eki\u015fme piyasada gerilim yarat\u0131yor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n sadece man\u015fetlere dayanarak hareketi kovalamamas\u0131 gerekir.<\/p>\n
ABD i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor ve bu durum Dolar\u2019\u0131n cazibesini art\u0131r\u0131yor. Ge\u00e7en hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanan Nisan 2026 Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (tar\u0131m sekt\u00f6r\u00fc hari\u00e7 istihdam de\u011fi\u015fimini g\u00f6steren veri) raporunda istihdam 240 bin artt\u0131; 180 binlik beklenti belirgin \u015fekilde a\u015f\u0131ld\u0131 ve \u00fccret enflasyonu \u00fczerinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 olu\u015fturdu. Bu tablo, uzun s\u00fcreli olarak ABD Dolar\u0131 aleyhine pozisyon almay\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Di\u011fer yandan OPEC+ \u00fcretim seviyelerine dair belirsizlik emtia piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 gergin tutarak Avustralya Dolar\u0131 gibi para birimlerine destek veriyor. Bu z\u0131t etkiler, paritenin yak\u0131n vadede net bir y\u00f6n bulmas\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n
Bize g\u00f6re, Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBA) bu haftaki toplant\u0131s\u0131nda temkinli duru\u015f sergilemesi de Avustralya Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. Banka, ge\u00e7mi\u015f faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n enflasyona etkisini g\u00f6rmek i\u00e7in \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d sinyali verdi. Enflasyon y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,4 seviyesinde; zirveden gerilese de hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n \u00fczerinde. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faizleri y\u00fcksek tutmaya yatk\u0131n) duru\u015funu korumas\u0131, iki \u00fclke politikalar\u0131 aras\u0131nda ayr\u0131\u015fma yarat\u0131yor ve bu fark ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 destekliyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerle i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in (t\u00fcrevi: de\u011feri kur\/fiyat gibi bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) bu ortam, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda oynakl\u0131k satmay\u0131 (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131 beklentisine kar\u015f\u0131 prim toplayan strateji) daha uygun k\u0131labilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin AUD\/USD\u2019de iron condor (belirli bir bantta kal\u0131rsa kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen, hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131ndan olu\u015fan strateji) parite g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD verileri ile emtia deste\u011fi aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131rsa getiri sa\u011flayabilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, yatay bantta i\u015flem g\u00f6rme beklentisine dayan\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Alternatif olarak, uzun vadeli straddle veya strangle almak (her iki y\u00f6nde sert hareketten kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen opsiyon stratejileri; straddle\u2019da ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131, strangle\u2019da farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131 kullan\u0131l\u0131r) olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lma i\u00e7in pozisyon almak anlam\u0131na gelebilir. ABD ekonomisinde beklenmedik zay\u0131flama ya da risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 belirgin bi\u00e7imde de\u011fi\u015ftiren b\u00fcy\u00fck bir jeopolitik geli\u015fme, oynakl\u0131kta ani art\u0131\u015f yaratabilir. Bu strateji, mevcut s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde olu\u015fabilecek sert harekete haz\u0131rl\u0131k sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u0131cak man\u015fet AUD\/USD\u2019yi u\u00e7urdu: ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131 iyimserli\u011fiyle 0,7277 zirvesi test edildi. Risk i\u015ftah\u0131 artarken g\u00fcvenli liman Dolar zay\u0131flad\u0131; g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD verisi ve RBA temkini y\u00fckseli\u015fi t\u00f6rp\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46311","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46311","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46311"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46311\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46311"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46311"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46311"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}