EUR\/JPY \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc 183,50 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve %0,61 geriledi. Yen\u2019e talep, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131na (FX: yabanc\u0131 para al\u0131m-sat\u0131m piyasas\u0131) m\u00fcdahale edebilece\u011fi endi\u015fesiyle artt\u0131. Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) verileri, USD\/JPY 160,00 \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131ktan sonra Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (MoF) Yen\u2019i desteklemek i\u00e7in yakla\u015f\u0131k 5,48 trilyon Yen (yakla\u015f\u0131k 35 milyar dolar) harcam\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
Baz\u0131 analistler, USD\/JPY\u2019deki son d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc duyurulmam\u0131\u015f olas\u0131 bir ba\u015fka m\u00fcdahaleye de ba\u011flad\u0131. Japonya Maliye Bakan\u0131 Satsuki Katayama, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l ABD ile imzalanan anla\u015fma kapsam\u0131nda, spek\u00fclatif kur hareketlerine kar\u015f\u0131 \u201ckararl\u0131 ad\u0131mlar\u201d atmaya haz\u0131r olduklar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Eski bir Japon yetkili, Golden Week tatili s\u0131ras\u0131nda ek ad\u0131mlar gelebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Piyasada yak\u0131n d\u00f6nem m\u00fcdahalelere dair resm\u00ee do\u011frulama h\u00e2l\u00e2 gelmedi\u011fi i\u00e7in Yen al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcc\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde Eurostat, Mart ay\u0131nda \u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi (\u00dcFE\/PPI: \u00fcreticilerin sat\u0131\u015f fiyatlar\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fimi \u00f6l\u00e7en enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) enflasyonunu y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,1 olarak a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Bu, \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemdeki %3\u2019l\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe k\u0131yasla daha y\u00fcksek ve beklentilerin \u00fczerinde. Ayl\u0131k \u00dcFE %3,4 artt\u0131; bu yakla\u015f\u0131k d\u00f6rt y\u0131l\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck y\u00fckseli\u015fi.<\/p>\n
Nihai HCOB Hizmet PMI (Sat\u0131n Alma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi: anket verisiyle ekonomik faaliyetin y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6sterir) Nisan\u2019da 47,6\u2019ya (47,4\u2019ten) revize edildi. Bile\u015fik PMI (hizmet + imalat toplam g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm) 48,8 oldu; her ikisi de 50\u2019nin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Bundesbank Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Joachim Nagel, enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde iyile\u015fmezse Haziran\u2019da faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ihtimalinin devam etti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Bu ortam, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n EUR\/JPY\u2019de olas\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesine i\u015faret ediyor. Paritede bir ayl\u0131k ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen beklenen dalgalanma) %11,8\u2019e y\u00fckseldi; bu, Tokyo\u2019dan gelebilecek resm\u00ee ad\u0131mlara dair kayg\u0131y\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131yor. JPY al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) ya da do\u011frudan EUR\/JPY sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) almak, olas\u0131 sert hareketlere kar\u015f\u0131 daha temkinli bir pozisyon olabilir.<\/p>\n
Euro taraf\u0131nda ise ikilem s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde enflasyon Nisan 2026 verisi %2,4 ile Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) hedefinin \u00fczerinde kalarak faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndemde tutuyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n b\u00f6lgenin son bile\u015fik PMI verisi 49,2 ile zay\u0131f; bu da ekonomik yava\u015flaman\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Y\u00fcksek seyreden enflasyon ile zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcme aras\u0131ndaki bu gerilim, euronun y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. ECB, zay\u0131flayan bir ekonomide para politikas\u0131n\u0131 (faiz ve likidite ad\u0131mlar\u0131) sert bi\u00e7imde s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmakta isteksiz kalabilir. Bu nedenle, \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d (out-of-the-money: \u015fu anki fiyat\u0131n \u00fcst\u00fcnde kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131) EUR\/JPY al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 satmak, prim (premium: opsiyon sat\u0131c\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fccret) toplamak i\u00e7in bir y\u00f6ntem olabilir; strateji, paritenin y\u00fckseli\u015finin hem Euro B\u00f6lgesi riskleri hem de Japonya m\u00fcdahale tehdidiyle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131na dayan\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
M\u00fcdahale korkusu geri d\u00f6nd\u00fc: EUR\/JPY 183,50\u2019de %0,61 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. BoJ verileriyle 35 milyar $\u2019l\u0131k MoF hamlesi konu\u015fuluyor. Euro\u2019da \u00dcFE s\u00fcrprizi, PMI zay\u0131f; opsiyonlarda oynakl\u0131k %11,8.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46307","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46307","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46307"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46307\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46307"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46307"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46307"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}