{"id":46299,"date":"2026-05-06T19:25:26","date_gmt":"2026-05-06T19:25:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/usd-cad-daha-zayif-petrolun-risk-istahini-dengelemesiyle-yatay-seyrediyor-odakta-boc-sunumu-ve-135-destegi\/"},"modified":"2026-05-06T19:25:26","modified_gmt":"2026-05-06T19:25:26","slug":"usd-cad-daha-zayif-petrolun-risk-istahini-dengelemesiyle-yatay-seyrediyor-odakta-boc-sunumu-ve-135-destegi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/usd-cad-daha-zayif-petrolun-risk-istahini-dengelemesiyle-yatay-seyrediyor-odakta-boc-sunumu-ve-135-destegi\/","title":{"rendered":"USD\/CAD, Daha Zay\u0131f Petrol\u00fcn Risk \u0130\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 Dengelemesiyle Yatay Seyrediyor; Odakta BoC Sunumu ve 1,35 Deste\u011fi"},"content":{"rendered":"

USD\/CAD \u00e7ok az de\u011fi\u015fti; daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck petrol fiyatlar\u0131, risk i\u015ftah\u0131ndaki (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme e\u011filimi) art\u0131\u015f\u0131 dengeledi. Kanada Dolar\u0131 (CAD), ABD\/\u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda petroldeki \u00f6nceki y\u00fckseli\u015ften s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 destek ald\u0131.<\/p>\n

Enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f kal\u0131c\u0131 olursa CAD \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratabilir. Petrolde s\u00fcren bir gerileme, enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131 y\u00fcksek kalsa bile Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoC) y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemlerinde para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ve\/veya daha k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 duru\u015f) beklentilerini zay\u0131flatabilir.<\/p>\n

Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131 Senato Sunumu<\/h3>\n

BoC Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Macklem ve K\u0131demli Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Rogers\u2019\u0131n, ekonomiyi ve g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc Senato Bankac\u0131l\u0131k Komitesi\u2019ne aktarmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Mesajlar\u0131n\u0131n, hafta ba\u015f\u0131nda Temsilciler Meclisi maliye komitesinde yapt\u0131klar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalarla uyumlu olmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

K\u0131sa vadeli teknik g\u00f6stergeler (fiyat grafi\u011finden t\u00fcretilen sinyaller), USD\/CAD\u2019de yak\u0131n vadeli spot (anl\u0131k piyasa) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendinin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret ediyor. Diren\u00e7 (yukar\u0131 hareketin zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviye) 1.3625\/30 ve 1.3720 b\u00f6lgelerinde; a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nde hedef ise 1.35\u2019in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerindeki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc destek (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc durdurma e\u011filimindeki seviye) alan\u0131.<\/p>\n

ABD dolar\u0131 zay\u0131f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor; k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck y\u00fckseli\u015fleri sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. USD\/CAD\u2019de 1.3625 civar\u0131ndaki direncin \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, k\u0131sa vadede dolar i\u00e7in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Odak, paritenin (iki para biriminin oran\u0131) 1.35\u2019in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerine do\u011fru gerilemesi.<\/p>\n

Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, enerji fiyatlar\u0131 daha yumu\u015fak olsa da ge\u00e7erli. WTI ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri (gelecek tarihli al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri) varil ba\u015f\u0131na 78 dolar civar\u0131na geriledi; ge\u00e7en ay 85 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerindeydi. Bunun CAD \u00fczerinde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olumsuz etki yaratmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz; \u00f6zellikle de Kanada\u2019n\u0131n son enflasyon verisi %2,8 geldi\u011fi i\u00e7in. Kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon, BoC\u2019nin politikay\u0131 gev\u015fetmesini (faiz indirimi ve\/veya daha destekleyici duru\u015f) zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor ve CAD\u2019e bir miktar temel destek sa\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Petrol, Enflasyon ve ABD Dolar\u0131 Oda\u011f\u0131<\/h3>\n

2025 sonundaki ABD\/\u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda piyasalarda g\u00f6r\u00fclen oynakl\u0131\u011fa (fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert dalgalanmas\u0131) bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, petrolde belirgin s\u0131\u00e7rama olsa bile CAD\u2019e g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ve kal\u0131c\u0131 bir destek gelmedi\u011fini g\u00f6rd\u00fck. Bu ge\u00e7mi\u015f performans, CAD\u2019in mevcut seviyesini orta \u00f6l\u00e7ekli petrol dalgalanmalar\u0131ndan ziyade genel ABD dolar\u0131 trendlerinin daha fazla belirledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu nedenle, \u201cgreenback\u201d (ABD dolar\u0131) taraf\u0131ndaki zay\u0131fl\u0131k bizim i\u00e7in daha kritik.<\/p>\n

Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm alt\u0131nda, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda vadesi dolacak, 1.3550 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131na (strike: opsiyonun al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131n\u0131 verdi\u011fi seviye) yak\u0131n USD\/CAD sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (belirli vadeye kadar belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) de\u011ferlendirebilir. Daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m, ay\u0131 call spread (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisiyle kurulan prim stratejisi) olabilir: 1.3625 direncinde call (al\u0131m) opsiyonu sat\u0131p, dolar\u0131n bu seviyenin \u00fczerine kal\u0131c\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f yapamayaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisinden faydalanmak. Bu pozisyonlar, paritede en olas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyle uyumlu olur.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

USD\/CAD yatay: petrol geriliyor, risk i\u015ftah\u0131 art\u0131yor. Piyasada g\u00f6zler BoC Senato sunumunda. Teknikte d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendi s\u00fcr\u00fcyor; 1.3625 diren\u00e7, hedef 1.35 alt\u0131. Zay\u0131f dolar belirleyici.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46299","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46299","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46299"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46299\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46299"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46299"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46299"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}