Societe Generale, Japon yeninin sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fc paritesi (SGP: \u00fclkelerdeki fiyat d\u00fczeylerini kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rarak \u201cger\u00e7ek\u201d kurun nerede olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini \u00f6l\u00e7en y\u00f6ntem) baz\u0131nda ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011ferinin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Banka, USD\/JPY i\u00e7in adil de\u011feri (teorik denge seviye) 95 civar\u0131nda hesaplad\u0131; bu seviye mevcut fiyatlar\u0131n olduk\u00e7a alt\u0131nda.<\/p>\n
Banka, di\u011fer merkez bankalar\u0131yla faiz fark\u0131 nedeniyle yenin \u201ccarry trade\u201d (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli para biriminden bor\u00e7lan\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek faizli para birimine yat\u0131r\u0131m yaparak faiz fark\u0131ndan getiri hedefleyen i\u015flem) amac\u0131yla kullan\u0131lmaya devam etti\u011fini bildirdi. Kurun a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 gelmesi halinde bu pozisyonlar\u0131n (a\u00e7\u0131k i\u015flemlerin) k\u0131r\u0131lgan olabilece\u011fini ekledi.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY\u2019nin 160\u2019a do\u011fru son iki hamlesinin d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131na m\u00fcdahale (kuru etkilemek i\u00e7in resmi kurumlar\u0131n piyasada al\u0131m-sat\u0131m yapmas\u0131) ile kar\u015f\u0131land\u0131\u011f\u0131, ancak etkinin k\u0131sa s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc belirtildi. Ayr\u0131ca Nikkei\u2019nin y\u00fckseli\u015fine ve piyasadaki mevcut \u201cshort yen\u201d (yenin de\u011fer kaybedece\u011fi beklentisiyle a\u00e7\u0131lan sat\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon) birikimine dikkat \u00e7ekildi.<\/p>\n
Societe Generale, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BOJ) ve Japonya Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n USD\/JPY\u2019yi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc y\u00f6nlendirebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Daha \u00f6nceki geri \u00e7ekilmelerde g\u00f6r\u00fclen 140 yerine, 150\u2019ye do\u011fru bir hareket ihtimalini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131.<\/p>\n
We see the Japanese Yen as deeply undervalued, with its fair value based on purchasing power sitting closer to 95 against the dollar. With the pair currently trading around 158.50, holding short-yen positions becomes increasingly risky. This valuation gap suggests a significant correction could be on the horizon.<\/p>\n
Yen satman\u0131n cazibesi, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) %5,50 faizi ile BOJ\u2019un %0,1 faizi aras\u0131ndaki geni\u015f fark\u0131n besledi\u011fi carry trade rol\u00fcnden geldi. Ancak son veriler, yendeki spek\u00fclatif net-short pozisyonlar\u0131n (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n toplamda sat\u0131\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnde daha fazla pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131) y\u0131llar\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyelerinde oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor; bu da i\u015flemin \u00e7ok kalabal\u0131kla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu t\u00fcr tek y\u00f6ne y\u0131\u011f\u0131lma k\u0131r\u0131lgand\u0131r ve h\u0131zl\u0131 \u201cpozisyon kapatma\u201d (a\u00e7\u0131k i\u015flemleri ters i\u015flemle kapatma) dalgas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n
Nikkei 225\u2019in 42.000\u2019in \u00fczerinde seyretmesi gibi Japon ekonomisinde g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeye i\u015faret eden sinyaller, \u201czay\u0131f yen\u201d anlat\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 zorlayabilir. Nisan 2026 \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon verisi %2,2 ile merkez bankas\u0131 hedefinin \u00fczerinde kalarak para politikas\u0131nda normalle\u015fme (\u00e7ok gev\u015fek politikalardan daha s\u0131k\u0131\/dengeye yak\u0131n politikalara ge\u00e7i\u015f) bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. Bu unsurlar, yetkililere daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir para birimini tercih etmek i\u00e7in gerek\u00e7e verebilir.<\/p>\n
Yetkililerin 2024 ilkbahar\u0131nda oldu\u011fu gibi 160 seviyesine y\u00f6nelen hareketleri daha \u00f6nce m\u00fcdahaleyle durdurdu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc; etkiler k\u0131sa s\u00fcrse de bu kez Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve BOJ\u2019un pariteyi daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nlendirebilece\u011fi beklentisi art\u0131yor. Bu t\u00fcr kontroll\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f (kademeli ve y\u00f6netilen geri \u00e7ekilme) i\u00e7in hedefin 150 oldu\u011fu, bunun \u00f6nceki d\u00fczeltmelerde g\u00f6r\u00fclen 140\u2019a k\u0131yasla daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir seviye oldu\u011fu ifade ediliyor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm alt\u0131nda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n USD\/JPY\u2019de olas\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmeye kar\u015f\u0131 koruyucu ara\u00e7lar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesi gerekti\u011fi belirtiliyor. 1\u20132 ay vadeli, 155 veya 152,50 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 put opsiyonlar\u0131 (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta sa\u011flayan sat\u0131\u015f opsiyonu) etkili olabilir. Ay\u0131 put spreadi (maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in bir put al\u0131p daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 ba\u015fka bir put satmaktan olu\u015fan strateji) de 150\u2019ye do\u011fru hareketi daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetle hedeflemenin bir yolu olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
SocGen\u2019den \u00e7arp\u0131c\u0131 uyar\u0131: Yen SGP\u2019ye g\u00f6re dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda \u201cderin iskontolu\u201d; adil de\u011fer 95, kur 158,5. Kalabal\u0131k short-yen\/carry trade k\u0131r\u0131lgan; BOJ-Maliye m\u00fcdahalesiyle 150\u2019ye d\u00fczeltme riski b\u00fcy\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46298","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46298","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46298"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46298\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46298"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46298"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46298"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}