USD\/CAD \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc y\u00f6n bulmakta zorland\u0131; 1,3578 g\u00fcn i\u00e7i dip seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra %0,08 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 1,3608 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131 umudu ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 bask\u0131larken, d\u00fc\u015fen Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 Kanada Dolar\u0131 \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Axios, Washington ile Tahran\u2019\u0131n sava\u015f\u0131 bitirmek ve n\u00fckleer g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin \u00e7er\u00e7evesini belirlemek i\u00e7in tek sayfal\u0131k bir mutabakat metnine (taraflar\u0131n genel niyetini yaz\u0131l\u0131 olarak ortaya koyan k\u0131sa anla\u015fma) yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yazd\u0131. Teklife g\u00f6re \u0130ran n\u00fckleer zenginle\u015ftirmeyi (uranyumun enerji\/askeri kullan\u0131m i\u00e7in safla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131) durduracak; ABD yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 kald\u0131racak ve dondurulmu\u015f \u0130ran fonlar\u0131ndaki milyarlarca dolar\u0131 serbest b\u0131rakacak. Ayr\u0131ca H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresindeki ablukalar\u0131n sona ermesi g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n
Haber sonras\u0131 ABD Dolar\u0131 ve Petrol geriledi; WTI ham petrol (ABD referans ham petrol\u00fc) bir ara %10\u2019dan fazla d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fckten sonra kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 azaltt\u0131. Kanada Dolar\u0131 \u00e7o\u011fu zaman Petrol ile birlikte hareket eder; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc Kanada \u00f6nemli bir ham petrol ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n
\u00d6nceki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin sonu\u00e7suz kalmas\u0131 nedeniyle belirsizlik y\u00fcksek kald\u0131. Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump, anla\u015fma olmazsa askeri operasyonlar\u0131n \u201c\u00e7ok daha y\u00fcksek seviye ve yo\u011funlukta\u201d yeniden ba\u015flayabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Ayr\u0131ca anla\u015fma sa\u011flan\u0131rsa H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u0130ran dahil t\u00fcm gemi trafi\u011fine a\u00e7\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerinden olu\u015fan sepete kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steren endeks) 97,62 dip seviyesinden sonra 97,90 civar\u0131nda dengelendi; ancak g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,60 eksideydi. ADP verisi (\u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam tahmini) Nisan\u2019da \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam\u0131n\u0131n 109 bin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi; beklenti 99 bindi (\u00f6nceki 61 bin).<\/p>\n
Odak, ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri ve ABD seans\u0131n\u0131n ilerleyen saatlerinde a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Kanada PMI verisinde (Sat\u0131n Alma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi: \u015firket anketleriyle ekonomik faaliyetin h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6sterge).<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131 ihtimali iki y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir \u00e7eki\u015fme yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in USD\/CAD\u2019in 1,3600 \u00e7evresinde y\u00f6n bulmakta zorlanmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Bar\u0131\u015f beklentisiyle zay\u0131flayan ABD Dolar\u0131, Petrol d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn Kanada Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 zay\u0131flatmas\u0131yla dengeleniyor. Bu tablo, tek bir y\u00f6ne bahis yerine sert bir hareket olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na (oynakl\u0131\u011fa) odaklanmay\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Ana mesaj, piyasan\u0131n anla\u015fma man\u015fetlerine \u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 tepki verdi\u011fi \u201ciki sonu\u00e7lu\u201d (ya anla\u015fma ya da \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f) bir ortam i\u00e7in haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmak. Bu nedenle opsiyonlarla (belirli tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) oynakl\u0131k almak, \u00f6rne\u011fin straddle (ayn\u0131 vade ve kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu alarak yukar\u0131\/a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck harekete oynama) mant\u0131kl\u0131 olabilir. Anla\u015fman\u0131n netle\u015fmesi ya da g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin tamamen da\u011f\u0131lmas\u0131 paritede birka\u00e7 sentlik hareket yaratabilir.<\/p>\n
Kanada Dolar\u0131 i\u00e7in en kritik unsur WTI\u2019daki sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f; fiyat\u0131n varil ba\u015f\u0131na 75 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde tutunmakta zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. 2015\u2019te ilk JCPOA n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda benzer bir s\u00fcre\u00e7 ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015f ve Petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda kal\u0131c\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Tarih benzer \u015fekilde i\u015flerse, olas\u0131 bir anla\u015fma CAD \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ve uzun s\u00fcreli bask\u0131 kurabilir; bu bask\u0131, daha yumu\u015fak ABD Dolar\u0131 etkisinden a\u011f\u0131r basabilir.<\/p>\n
Dolar bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda olsa da, temel ekonomik dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131k ve kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon destek sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Nisan T\u00dcFE (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi: t\u00fcketici sepetindeki fiyat de\u011fi\u015fimini \u00f6l\u00e7en enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) %3,6 ile beklentinin biraz \u00fczerinde geldi. Bu durum, Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) para politikas\u0131n\u0131 gev\u015fetme alan\u0131n\u0131 daralt\u0131yor. Bu temel g\u00fc\u00e7, dolardan h\u0131zl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131n k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli kalabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor; \u00f6zellikle m\u00fczakereler bozulursa.<\/p>\n
Bu z\u0131t etkenler nedeniyle spot piyasada (anl\u0131k kur \u00fczerinden i\u015flem) basit bir uzun\/k\u0131sa pozisyon yerine, opsiyonlarla \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda banttan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015fa (range k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m\u0131na) oynayan daha sab\u0131rl\u0131 bir yakla\u015f\u0131m \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Piyasa siyasi bir tetikleyici bekliyor; t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn pozisyonlar\u0131 (de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) bu belirsizli\u011fi yans\u0131tmal\u0131.<\/p>\n
VT Markets canl\u0131 hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" USD\/CAD 1,3600\u2019de kilitlendi: ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fma umudu dolar\u0131 bask\u0131larken, WTI\u2019daki sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f CAD\u2019i zay\u0131flat\u0131yor. Piyasa man\u015fetlere duyarl\u0131; y\u00f6n yerine opsiyonla volatilite (straddle) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46295","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46295","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46295"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46295\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46295"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46295"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46295"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}