NZD\/USD, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla yeniden 0,6000 seviyesine do\u011fru y\u00fckseldi ve sava\u015fla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 kay\u0131plar\u0131n \u00e7o\u011funu geri ald\u0131. Yeni Zelanda\u2019n\u0131n 1. \u00e7eyrek i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc verileri kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k geldi; istihdam zay\u0131flarken \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 (maa\u015flar\u0131n art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131) ise istikrarl\u0131 kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
RBNZ\u2019nin (Yeni Zelanda Merkez Bankas\u0131) sekt\u00f6rel fakt\u00f6r enflasyon modeli (farkl\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerin fiyat etkilerini toplayarak enflasyonu \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) 1. \u00e7eyrekte y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,7\u2019ye geriledi; 4. \u00e7eyrekte %2,8\u2019di. RBNZ, 2026\u2019da -%0,9\u2019luk negatif \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 (ekonominin kapasitesinin alt\u0131nda \u00fcretim yapmas\u0131; talebin zay\u0131f olmas\u0131) \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Swap fiyatlamas\u0131 (faiz beklentilerini yans\u0131tan t\u00fcrev piyasa fiyatlar\u0131), 8 Temmuz toplant\u0131s\u0131nda RBNZ\u2019den 25 baz puanl\u0131k (0,25 puan) tam bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bekliyor. Piyasalar ayr\u0131ca \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 12 ayda toplam 125 baz puanl\u0131k (1,25 puan) s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma (faizleri art\u0131rma) fiyatl\u0131yor; bu da politika faizini %3,50\u2019ye ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
RBNZ, swaplar\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011finden daha az faiz art\u0131r\u0131rsa, bu durum Yeni Zelanda Dolar\u0131 \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratabilir. Haber metni bir yapay zek\u00e2 arac\u0131yla \u00fcretildi ve bir edit\u00f6r taraf\u0131ndan kontrol edildi.<\/p>\n
Bu ortamda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, Yeni Zelanda Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivme (y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc) kazanmakta zorlanmas\u0131ndan faydalanan stratejileri de\u011ferlendirebilir. \u201cOut-of-the-money\u201d (k\u00e2rda olmayan; mevcut kurun \u00fczerinde kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131) NZD\/USD al\u0131m opsiyonu (call; kur y\u00fckselirse kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan s\u00f6zle\u015fme) satmak, \u201cprim\u201d geliri (opsiyon sat\u0131c\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fccret) elde etmek i\u00e7in uygulanabilir bir y\u00f6ntem olabilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, RBNZ\u2019nin faizi sabit tutaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne dayan\u0131r. Ayr\u0131ca paritenin \u201cimplied volatility\u201dsi (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan hesaplanan beklenen oynakl\u0131k) ge\u00e7mi\u015f faiz d\u00f6ng\u00fclerindeki tarihsel ortalamalara g\u00f6re d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kal\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7mi\u015fte piyasan\u0131n RBNZ politikas\u0131 konusunda erken ve abart\u0131l\u0131 beklentiye girdi\u011fi d\u00f6nemler g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc; \u00f6rne\u011fin son 10 y\u0131lda beklenen faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n daha sonra geri \u00e7ekildi\u011fi zamanlar oldu. Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc (ay\u0131 piyasas\u0131) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnen ancak riskini s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131rmak isteyen yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in NZD\/USD \u201cput spread\u201d (sat\u0131m opsiyonu ile kur d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne oynayan, farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131yla risk\/geliri s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131ran kombinasyon) almak mant\u0131kl\u0131 olabilir. Bu pozisyon, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019nda yeniden g\u00fc\u00e7lenme olursa veya RBNZ ileride faiz indirimi sinyali verirse paritenin d\u00fc\u015fmesinden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
NZD\/USD, dolar zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131yla 0,6000\u2019e toparland\u0131. NZ i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc karma; \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 sa\u011flam. Enflasyon %2,7\u2019ye indi. Piyasa 125 bp s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma fiyatl\u0131yor; RBNZ daha az art\u0131r\u0131rsa NZD bask\u0131lan\u0131r. OTM call sat\u0131\u015f\u0131\/put spread \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46293","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46293","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46293"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46293\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46293"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46293"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46293"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}