ADP, ABD\u2019de Nisan ay\u0131 istihdam de\u011fi\u015fiminin 109 bin oldu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Piyasa beklentisi 99 bindi.<\/p>\n
Veri, Nisan rakam\u0131n\u0131n beklentinin 10 bin \u00fczerinde geldi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. A\u00e7\u0131klamada ba\u015fka detay verilmedi.<\/p>\n
Nisan istihdam verisi beklentiden biraz iyi gelse de, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda so\u011fuma e\u011filiminin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc teyit ediyor. Bu yava\u015flama, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) enflasyonun hedefe yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131na daha fazla g\u00fcven duymak i\u00e7in arad\u0131\u011f\u0131 tablo. Bu nedenle, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek bitmeden faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu veri, y\u0131ll\u0131k \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun (g\u0131da ve enerji gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 tutulan enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) %2,8\u2019e geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6steren son T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) raporu gibi di\u011fer g\u00fcncel verilerin \u00fczerine geliyor. \u015eimdi t\u00fcm dikkatler, bu Cuma a\u00e7\u0131klanacak resmi Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerde olu\u015fturulan yeni i\u015f say\u0131s\u0131) verisinde olacak. 150 binin alt\u0131nda bir sonu\u00e7, Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda faiz indirimi beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7mi\u015fe bak\u0131nca, 2025 boyunca beklenenden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalan i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 Fed\u2019i faizleri planlanandan uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutmaya zorlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Mevcut e\u011filim bunun tersine d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ve ekonomik ortamda de\u011fi\u015fim ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, Eyl\u00fcl ve Aral\u0131k Fed toplant\u0131lar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlere talepte belirgin art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. T\u00fcccarlar, SOFR (g\u00fcnl\u00fck teminatl\u0131 finansman faizi; ABD\u2019de k\u0131sa vadeli faizlerin temel g\u00f6stergelerinden biri) opsiyonlar\u0131 ve vadeli i\u015flemleriyle (belirli bir tarihte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m anla\u015fmas\u0131) y\u0131l sonuna kadar en az 25 baz puanl\u0131k (0,25 puan) bir faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re pozisyon al\u0131yor. Daha y\u00fcksek faize kar\u015f\u0131 korunma maliyeti (hedge; olumsuz fiyat hareketine kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta gibi koruma) son 24 saatte belirgin \u015fekilde geriledi.<\/p>\n
Hisse t\u00fcrevleri taraf\u0131nda bu haber, \u201cyumu\u015fak ini\u015f\u201d (ekonominin sert daralma olmadan yava\u015flamas\u0131) anlat\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 destekliyor; bu genelde hisseler i\u00e7in olumlu. VIX (piyasan\u0131n beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks) bu veriyle 14\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131na inerek aylar\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Bu, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha sakin veya y\u00fckselen piyasalardan faydalanan stratejilere y\u00f6nelebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor; \u00f6rne\u011fin put satmak (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta talebi azald\u0131\u011f\u0131nda prim toplamak) veya S&P 500\u2019de call spread almak (y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisiyle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 maliyet ve s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 getiri sa\u011flayan opsiyon kombinasyonu).<\/p>\n
ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131 beklentisi de g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz, para birimini elde tutmay\u0131 daha az cazip hale getirir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda euro ve Japon yeninin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesinden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayacak opsiyonlarda pozisyon biriktirdi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc istihdam verisi de beklentiden zay\u0131f gelirse bu e\u011filim h\u0131zlanabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ADP Nisan istihdam\u0131 109 binle beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131; ancak so\u011fuma s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu, Fed\u2019in 3. \u00e7eyrek bitmeden faiz indirimi ihtimalini art\u0131r\u0131yor. G\u00f6zler Cuma tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131na.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46290","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46290","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46290"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46290\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46290"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46290"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46290"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}