{"id":46288,"date":"2026-05-06T16:27:27","date_gmt":"2026-05-06T16:27:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/trump-piyasalar-risk-istahini-korurken-ve-dolar-gerilerken-iran-anlasmasinin-hurmuz-bogazina-erisime-bagli-oldugu-uyarisinda-bulundu\/"},"modified":"2026-05-06T16:27:27","modified_gmt":"2026-05-06T16:27:27","slug":"trump-piyasalar-risk-istahini-korurken-ve-dolar-gerilerken-iran-anlasmasinin-hurmuz-bogazina-erisime-bagli-oldugu-uyarisinda-bulundu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/trump-piyasalar-risk-istahini-korurken-ve-dolar-gerilerken-iran-anlasmasinin-hurmuz-bogazina-erisime-bagli-oldugu-uyarisinda-bulundu\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump, piyasalar risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 korurken ve dolar gerilerken \u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na eri\u015fime ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011fu uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu"},"content":{"rendered":"

ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc Truth Social\u2019da yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 payla\u015f\u0131mda, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde anla\u015f\u0131lan \u015fartlara uyarsa \u201cEpic Fury\u201d (T\u00fcrk\u00e7esi \u201cEfsane \u00d6fke\u201d gibi \u00e7evrilebilir) operasyonunun sona erece\u011fini ve ablukayla ilgili d\u00fczenlemenin H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 \u0130ran dahil herkese a\u00e7\u0131k hale getirece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n

Trump, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n kabul etmemesi halinde bombard\u0131man\u0131n yeniden ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bunun \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemden daha y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeyde ve daha \u015fiddetli olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ekledi.<\/p>\n

Markets And Dollar Reaction<\/h3>\n

Piyasalar, a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme e\u011filimi) korudu. Haber yaz\u0131m s\u0131ras\u0131nda ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki de\u011ferini g\u00f6steren endeks) g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %0,7 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 97,80 seviyesindeydi.<\/p>\n

Piyasa \u015fu anda bar\u0131\u015fa oynuyor. Ancak biz bunu, sonucu iki uca gidebilen (ya anla\u015fma ya \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma) bir \u201cikili senaryo\u201d olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Dolar\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla g\u00f6r\u00fclen risk alma havas\u0131, \u0130ran\u2019la anla\u015fman\u0131n ba\u015far\u0131yla sonu\u00e7lanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor. Bu da, anla\u015fma beklentisinin fazla iyimser oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnen yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Oda\u011f\u0131m\u0131z ham petrol opsiyonlar\u0131 (opsiyon: belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn) olmal\u0131. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en kritik \u201cdar ge\u00e7idi\u201d (chokepoint: ticaretin yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131, aksama olursa k\u00fcresel ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 bozan bo\u011faz\/kanal) konumunda. K\u00fcresel petrol t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %21\u2019i buradan ge\u00e7iyor; bu nedenle herhangi bir aksama b\u00fcy\u00fck etki yarat\u0131r. 2019\u2019da Suudi tesislerine y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan West Texas Intermediate (WTI) vadeli kontratlar\u0131n\u0131n (futures: gelecekte teslim\/uzla\u015fma i\u00e7in bug\u00fcnden fiyat\u0131 belirlenen s\u00f6zle\u015fme) bir g\u00fcnde yakla\u015f\u0131k %15 s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fck. \u015eu an tam \u00f6l\u00e7ekli bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma, varil ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 85 dolar seviyesindeki WTI\u2019\u0131 rahatl\u0131kla \u00fc\u00e7 haneli fiyatlara ta\u015f\u0131yabilir.<\/p>\n

Bu tablo, CBOE Volatilite Endeksi (VIX: piyasadaki beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131\/gerginli\u011fi \u00f6l\u00e7en \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d) \u00fczerinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck primli, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut seviyenin \u00fczerinde olan opsiyonlar\u0131 cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Bug\u00fcn VIX sakin ve 14 civar\u0131nda. Ancak 2025\u2019te bankac\u0131l\u0131k kaynakl\u0131 dalgalanmada 30\u2019un \u00fczerine ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rl\u0131yoruz. G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olmas\u0131 ve ard\u0131ndan askeri ad\u0131mlar, piyasaya sert bir belirsizlik sokarak VIX al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f senaryosuna kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir koruma arac\u0131 haline getirebilir.<\/p>\n

Dollar Reversal Risk<\/h3>\n

ABD dolar\u0131 da olas\u0131 bir i\u015flem f\u0131rsat\u0131 i\u00e7in sinyal veriyor. DXY\u2019nin 97,80\u2019deki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131, anla\u015fma beklentisinin do\u011frudan sonucu. G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler \u00e7\u00f6kerse, h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d hareketi (kriz an\u0131nda dolara\/tahvile y\u00f6nelim) beklenebilir. Bu durumda dolar endeksi, k\u00fcresel paran\u0131n g\u00fcvenli varl\u0131k aray\u0131\u015f\u0131yla tekrar 100\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kabilir; ge\u00e7mi\u015f jeopolitik krizlerde bu \u00f6rne\u011fi s\u0131k g\u00f6rd\u00fck.<\/p>\n

Anla\u015fman\u0131n ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olaca\u011f\u0131na g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc inanc\u0131 olanlar i\u00e7in RTX ve LMT gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck savunma \u015firketlerinde al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 da izlenebilir. Gerilim, askeri harcamalar\u0131n artmas\u0131 ve m\u00fchimmat stoklar\u0131n\u0131n yenilenmesi anlam\u0131na gelir. \u00d6nceki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda bu hisselerde g\u00f6r\u00fclen hareketler, bu t\u00fcr d\u00f6nemlerde h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f i\u00e7in tarihsel bir \u00f6rnek sunuyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Trump: \u0130ran \u015fartlar\u0131 kabul ederse \u201cEpic Fury\u201d biter, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131r; reddederse daha sert bombard\u0131man. Piyasalar bar\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor: DXY %0,7 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Ancak ikili senaryo; petrol, VIX, dolar ve savunma opsiyonlar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46288","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46288","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46288"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46288\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46288"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46288"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46288"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}