Euro, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,8 y\u00fckseldi ve 1,1800 seviyesinin hemen alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Hareket, ABD-\u0130ran aras\u0131nda \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 bitirmeye ve daha sonra yap\u0131lacak n\u00fckleer g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler i\u00e7in bir \u00e7er\u00e7eve \u00e7izmeye y\u00f6nelik bir mutabakat metni (taraflar\u0131n genel ilkelerde anla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren ba\u011flay\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 anla\u015fma tasla\u011f\u0131) konusunda ilerleme haberlerinin ard\u0131ndan geldi. Buna ek olarak H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda gemi refakati (ticari gemilere asker\u00ee\/deniz g\u00fcvenli\u011fi e\u015fli\u011finde ge\u00e7i\u015f sa\u011flanmas\u0131) operasyonlar\u0131nda duraklama ve \u201ctaarruz a\u015famas\u0131n\u0131n\u201d bitti\u011fine y\u00f6nelik a\u00e7\u0131klama fiyatlamay\u0131 destekledi.<\/p>\n
Eurostat verileri, Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde \u00fcretici fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n (fabrika \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f fiyatlar\u0131; \u00fcreticilerin sat\u0131\u015f fiyatlar\u0131) Mart ay\u0131nda y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %2,1 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. \u015eubat\u2019taki %-3 seviyesinden toparlanan veri, %1,8 beklentisinin de \u00fczerinde geldi. Ayl\u0131k bazda \u00fcretici fiyatlar\u0131 %3,4 y\u00fckseldi; \u00f6nceki %-0,6\u2019n\u0131n ve %3,3 beklentisinin \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Nihai HCOB Hizmetler PMI (Sat\u0131n Alma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi; \u015firket anketlerinden t\u00fcretilen ve 50\u2019nin alt\u0131n\u0131n daralmaya i\u015faret etti\u011fi g\u00f6sterge) verileri, Euro B\u00f6lgesi hizmetler faaliyetinin 47,6 ile daralma b\u00f6lgesinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Bu, 47,4\u2019l\u00fck \u00f6nc\u00fc okumaya g\u00f6re s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir yukar\u0131 revizyon. Almanya 46,9 ile de\u011fi\u015fmedi; Fransa ve \u0130talya da daralma b\u00f6lgesinde kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Dikkat daha sonra ABD ADP \u0130stihdam De\u011fi\u015fimi raporuna (\u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r bordro verilerinden t\u00fcretilen istihdam g\u00f6stergesi) \u00e7evrildi. Nisan i\u00e7in beklenti 99 bin, Mart ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi 62 bin d\u00fczeyinde. EUR\/USD seviyelerinde diren\u00e7 (yukar\u0131 hareketin zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviye) 1,1790 civar\u0131nda. Yukar\u0131da 1,1850 ve 1,1930 hedefleri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karken, destek (a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 hareketin zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviye) 1,1690 ile 1,1645\u20131,1675 band\u0131nda izleniyor.<\/p>\n
May\u0131s 2025\u2019te ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131 beklentileri k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme e\u011filimi) art\u0131rm\u0131\u015f, EUR\/USD paritesini 1,1800 direncini test etmeye ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. O y\u00fckseli\u015f, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u00fcretici fiyat verileriyle de desteklenmi\u015f ve o d\u00f6nemde Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan (ECB) yak\u0131n zamanda faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 gelebilece\u011fi beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmi\u015fti. O g\u00fcnlerdeki piyasa havas\u0131, bug\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fclen temkinli tondan belirgin bi\u00e7imde farkl\u0131yd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131la g\u00f6re tablo belirgin \u015fekilde de\u011fi\u015fti; g\u00fcndem art\u0131k faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 de\u011fil, olas\u0131 faiz indirimleri. Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde enflasyon so\u011fudu. Nisan 2026 i\u00e7in a\u00e7\u0131klanan Uyumla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (HICP; \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131labilir enflasyon \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fc) y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,4 geldi. Bu, 2025\u2019te endi\u015fe yaratan enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131yla k\u0131yasland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda belirgin bir fark. Fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki bu yava\u015flama, ECB\u2019nin bu yaz ilk faiz indirimine kap\u0131 aralayabilece\u011fi sinyalini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu durum Euro i\u00e7in yeni bir denge olu\u015fturuyor. Euro\u2019nun 1,0850 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesi, 2025 zirvelerinin olduk\u00e7a alt\u0131nda kal\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Piyasalar 2026 sonuna kadar ECB\u2019den toplam yakla\u015f\u0131k 75 baz puan (bp; 1 baz puan = %0,01) faiz indirimi fiyatl\u0131yor. Bu nedenle Euro\u2019nun dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda daha zay\u0131f bir e\u011filime girmesi olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) ise indirim konusunda daha temkinli; bu da ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli bar\u0131\u015f beklentisi rallisinde g\u00f6r\u00fclmeyen bir \u015fekilde dolara temel (makro) destek veriyor.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik tablo da ders niteli\u011finde: Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l olas\u0131 bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131na dair iyimserlik kal\u0131c\u0131 olmad\u0131. Deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki aksamalar ve Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilimin s\u00fcrmesi, dolar\u0131n \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (risk artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda tercih edilen para birimi) \u00f6zelli\u011finin h\u0131zla geri d\u00f6nebilece\u011fini hat\u0131rlatt\u0131. Bu, 2025 ilkbahar\u0131ndaki \u201crisk alma\u201d havas\u0131nda dolar\u0131n bask\u0131land\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemin tam tersi.<\/p>\n
Bu ortamda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n opsiyonlarla (belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn) riski netle\u015ftirmesi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki belirgin y\u00fckseli\u015f trendi art\u0131k yok. EUR\/USD\u2019de sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put; fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan veya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayan opsiyon) almak, merkez bankas\u0131 politikalar\u0131ndaki ayr\u0131\u015fman\u0131n (ECB-Fed y\u00f6n fark\u0131) yarataca\u011f\u0131 olas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunma ya da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe oynama i\u00e7in daha do\u011frudan bir y\u00f6ntem olabilir. Alternatif olarak oynakl\u0131ktan (volatilite; fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc) faydalanan stratejiler, \u00f6rne\u011fin yakla\u015fan ECB ve Fed toplant\u0131lar\u0131 \u00e7evresinde straddle (ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu alarak b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketten yararlanma stratejisi) daha belirsiz piyasada etkili olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
EUR\/USD bar\u0131\u015f umutlar\u0131yla %0,8 s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131, 1,18 alt\u0131na yerle\u015fti. Euro B\u00f6lgesi \u00dcFE s\u00fcrprizi destek verirken, PMI daralmas\u0131 ve ADP bekleniyor. ECB indirim fiyatlamas\u0131 dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46284","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46284","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46284"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46284\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46284"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46284"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46284"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}