Yapay zek\u00e2 (AI) temal\u0131 bilan\u00e7o sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k geldi. AMD en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc rakamlar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klarken, SMCI ciroda (gelir) beklentiyi ka\u00e7\u0131rd\u0131 ancak iyimser \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fc (guidance: \u015firketin ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck tahmini) verdi. Navitas ise s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6sterdi. Piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 \u015fimdi Nasdaq-100\u2019\u00fcn yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc fiyat bo\u015flu\u011funu (gap up: a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131n bir \u00f6nceki kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n belirgin \u00fczerinde olmas\u0131) koruyup koruyamayaca\u011f\u0131na, yoksa a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f sonras\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fin s\u00f6n\u00fcmlenip s\u00f6n\u00fcmlenmeyece\u011fine (fade: y\u00fckseli\u015fin geri verilmesi) kay\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
AMD yakla\u015f\u0131k 10,3 milyar dolar gelir ve hisse ba\u015f\u0131na d\u00fczeltilmi\u015f k\u00e2r (non-GAAP EPS: muhasebe standartlar\u0131na g\u00f6re de\u011fil, tek seferlik kalemler ay\u0131klanarak hesaplanan k\u00e2r) olarak 1,37 dolar a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. 2. \u00e7eyrek i\u00e7in geliri yakla\u015f\u0131k 11,2 milyar dolar \u00b1 300 milyon dolar aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc ve d\u00fczeltilmi\u015f br\u00fct k\u00e2r marj\u0131n\u0131 (non-GAAP gross margin: gelirden \u00fcr\u00fcn\/hizmet maliyeti \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131ktan sonra kalan oran; d\u00fczeltilmi\u015f) yakla\u015f\u0131k %56 olarak verdi. Veri merkezi (data centre) geliri y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %57 artt\u0131.<\/p>\n
SMCI, hisse ba\u015f\u0131na k\u00e2rda beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131 ancak gelirde beklentinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. 4. \u00e7eyrek i\u00e7in geliri 11,0\u201312,5 milyar dolar aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, d\u00fczeltilmi\u015f EPS\u2019yi 0,65\u20130,79 dolar aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Navitas, gelirin bir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyre\u011fe g\u00f6re (sequentially: \u00e7eyrekten \u00e7eyre\u011fe) %18 artarak 8,6 milyon dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. 2. \u00e7eyrek geliri i\u00e7in yakla\u015f\u0131k 10,0 milyon dolar \u00b1 0,5 milyon dolar \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Nasdaq-100 28.015 seviyesinde kapand\u0131. Takip edilen teknik seviyeler 28.200, 27.700, 27.592\u201327.822 ve daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da 27,3 bin, 27 bin ve 26,4 bin civar\u0131 destekler olarak belirtildi. \u0130ki \u201cyorulma\u201d sinyali olarak 28.200 civar\u0131ndaki trend \u00e7izgisi ve saatlik g\u00f6stergelerde (oscillator: fiyat\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131\/ivmesini \u00f6l\u00e7en teknik indikat\u00f6r) a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc uyumsuzluk (bearish divergence: fiyat y\u00fckselirken g\u00f6stergenin g\u00fc\u00e7 kaybetmesi) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; buna Stochastic RSI da dahil (Stochastic RSI: RSI\u2019nin a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\/a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m durumlar\u0131n\u0131 daha hassas g\u00f6stermeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan indikat\u00f6r).<\/p>\n
SMCI taraf\u0131nda tablo, temelden (fundamentals: \u015firketin gelir\/k\u00e2r gibi finansal ger\u00e7ekleri) \u00e7ok momentumla (momentum: fiyat\u0131n ivmesi) ilgili g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor; g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fc, zay\u0131f gelir raporunun \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7ti. Opsiyon piyasas\u0131 da bunu yans\u0131t\u0131yor: haftal\u0131k opsiyonlarda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) y\u00fcksek kal\u0131yor. Bu, 30,50 dolar seviyesi \u00e7evresinde sert hareket beklendi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu destek, cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc vade bitimine (expiration: opsiyonun son i\u015flem\/vade g\u00fcn\u00fc) kadar korunursa, \u201cgamma squeeze\u201d (opsiyon sat\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n risklerini dengelemek i\u00e7in hisse almak zorunda kal\u0131p y\u00fckseli\u015fi h\u0131zland\u0131rmas\u0131) fiyat\u0131 yukar\u0131 itebilir.<\/p>\n
SMCI k\u0131sa vadeli ivme hik\u00e2yesiyken, Navitas h\u00e2l\u00e2 bant i\u00e7inde kalan bir \u201chik\u00e2ye hissesi\u201d (story stock: beklentiyle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan, finansallar\u0131 hen\u00fcz bunu tam desteklemeyen hisse). Bu nedenle, bant stratejileri i\u00e7in daha uygun: \u00f6rne\u011fin 14\u201320 dolar kanal\u0131n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131na kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131 (strike: opsiyonda al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131n\u0131n fiyat\u0131) koyarak \u201ciron condor\u201d satmak (iron condor: belirli bir bantta kalma beklentisiyle kurulan, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskli opsiyon stratejisi). Y\u00fcksek g\u00fc\u00e7 uygulamalar\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fcme olumlu; ancak fiyat, hacimle (volume: i\u015flem miktar\u0131) net bir k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m (breakout: band\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131na g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f) teyit etmeden y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyondan ka\u00e7\u0131nmak gerekir.<\/p>\n
Nasdaq-100 kritik bir s\u0131navdan ge\u00e7iyor; yorulma i\u015faretleri artm\u0131\u015f durumda. CBOE Volatilite Endeksi (VIX: S&P 500 i\u00e7in beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6steren \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d) 13 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; bu seviye en son 2025 sonundaki h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f d\u00f6nemlerinde g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu, piyasada rehavetin y\u00fckseldi\u011fine i\u015faret eder ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc al\u0131c\u0131lar gelmezse \u201cgap up\u201d sonras\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmeye a\u00e7\u0131k bir zemin olu\u015fturur.<\/p>\n
Odak, Nasdaq-100 vadeli i\u015flemlerinde 28.200 orta \u00e7izgi seviyesinde olmal\u0131. Nakit piyasas\u0131 (cash market: spot\/borsa a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131) a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131ktan sonra bu b\u00f6lge korunamazsa, k\u0131sa vadeli sat\u0131m opsiyonu (short-dated puts: yak\u0131n vadeli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 koruma ama\u00e7l\u0131 opsiyon) almak veya al\u0131m opsiyonu spread\u2019i satmak (call spread: ayn\u0131 vadede farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131yla kurulan s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 getirili\/riski kontrol edilen strateji) korunma (hedge: riski azaltma) i\u00e7in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. Tersi durumda, erken sat\u0131\u015flar emilir ve bu seviyenin \u00fczerinde destek olu\u015fursa, AI kaynakl\u0131 rallinin devam edebilece\u011fini teyit eder.<\/p>\n
Y\u00fckselen kanal deste\u011finin (rising channel support: y\u00fckselen trend i\u00e7inde alt bant\/destek) 27.700 civar\u0131nda net k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, genel piyasa i\u00e7in ilk b\u00fcy\u00fck uyar\u0131 olur. Bu, AI sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnden \u00e7ok g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc haberlerin bile zaten fiyatlara girdi\u011fi anlam\u0131na gelebilir. B\u00f6yle bir senaryoda bir sonraki kritik alan, al\u0131c\u0131-sat\u0131c\u0131 m\u00fccadelesi i\u00e7in 27.300 civar\u0131ndaki daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck destekler olur.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
AI bilan\u00e7o sezonu kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k: AMD g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sonu\u00e7 ve 11,2 milyar $ ciro \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcyle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; SMCI gelirde ka\u00e7\u0131rsa da iyimser guidance verdi. G\u00f6zler Nasdaq-100\u2019de: 28.200 tutulacak m\u0131, gap up fade\u2019e d\u00f6necek mi?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46282","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46282","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46282"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46282\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46282"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46282"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46282"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}