{"id":46279,"date":"2026-05-06T14:25:35","date_gmt":"2026-05-06T14:25:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/abd-iran-anlasma-gorusmeleri-risk-istahini-artirirken-hurmuz-kisitlamalarinin-gevsemesi-petrol-ve-volatilite-uzerinde-baski-olusturuyor\/"},"modified":"2026-05-06T14:25:35","modified_gmt":"2026-05-06T14:25:35","slug":"abd-iran-anlasma-gorusmeleri-risk-istahini-artirirken-hurmuz-kisitlamalarinin-gevsemesi-petrol-ve-volatilite-uzerinde-baski-olusturuyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/abd-iran-anlasma-gorusmeleri-risk-istahini-artirirken-hurmuz-kisitlamalarinin-gevsemesi-petrol-ve-volatilite-uzerinde-baski-olusturuyor\/","title":{"rendered":"ABD-\u0130ran Anla\u015fma G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri Risk \u0130\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 Art\u0131r\u0131rken, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz K\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131n\u0131n Gev\u015femesi Petrol ve Volatilite \u00dczerinde Bask\u0131 Olu\u015fturuyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

Axios\u2019a g\u00f6re ABD ile \u0130ran, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 bitirecek bir anla\u015fmaya yakla\u015f\u0131yor. \u0130ddiaya g\u00f6re \u015fartlar aras\u0131nda, iki taraf\u0131n da H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7i\u015fe y\u00f6nelik k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131 gev\u015fetmesi var.<\/p>\n

Habere g\u00f6re \u0130ran, n\u00fckleer zenginle\u015ftirmeyi belirli bir s\u00fcre durdurmay\u0131 (moratoryum: ge\u00e7ici durdurma) taahh\u00fct edecek. Ayr\u0131ca ABD\u2019nin yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 kald\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 ve dondurulmu\u015f \u0130ran varl\u0131klar\u0131ndan milyarlarca dolar\u0131 serbest b\u0131rakaca\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n

Anla\u015fman\u0131n Ayr\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131 ve Takvimi<\/h3>\n

ABD\u2019nin, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 48 saat i\u00e7inde birka\u00e7 kritik ba\u015fl\u0131kta yan\u0131t vermesini bekledi\u011fi bildiriliyor. Reuters da bar\u0131\u015f giri\u015fimlerinde yer alan Pakistanl\u0131 bir kayna\u011f\u0131n Axios\u2019un aktard\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frulad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve taraflar\u0131n anla\u015fmay\u0131 sonu\u00e7land\u0131rmaya yak\u0131n oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi\u011fini aktar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Haberin ard\u0131ndan piyasalarda risk i\u015ftah\u0131 artt\u0131 (risk i\u015ftah\u0131: yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha y\u00fcksek riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme e\u011filimi). ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki de\u011ferini g\u00f6steren endeks) %0,6\u2019dan fazla d\u00fc\u015ferek yakla\u015f\u0131k 97,90\u2019a gerilerken, ABD borsa endeksi vadeli i\u015flemleri (vadeli i\u015flem: ileri tarihli al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) %0,65 ile %1,1 aras\u0131nda y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n

Alt\u0131n g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k %3 artarak 4.700 dolar civar\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu hareketler, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n anla\u015fma ihtimaline tepki vermesiyle ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n

ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 haberleriyle birlikte, petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekebilecek \u00f6nemli bir \u201criskin \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesi\u201d s\u00fcreci g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden rahatlamas\u0131 ve \u0130ran petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn geri d\u00f6nmesi, arz fazlas\u0131 (supply glut: talebin \u00fcst\u00fcnde arz birikmesi) yaratabilir. Uluslararas\u0131 Enerji Ajans\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Mart 2026 raporuna g\u00f6re yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, alt\u0131 ay i\u00e7inde k\u00fcresel arza g\u00fcnde 1 milyon varilden fazla ekleme yapabilir; piyasa bu olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ancak \u015fimdi fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

2015\u2019teki ilk n\u00fckleer anla\u015fma sonras\u0131 benzer bir tablo g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f, petrol iki ayda yakla\u015f\u0131k %20 gerilemi\u015fti. \u015eubat 2026\u2019daki tanker gerilimi s\u0131ras\u0131nda fiyatlar varil ba\u015f\u0131na 110 dolar\u0131 g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; buradan 85-90 dolar band\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu nedenle enerjide d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc (bearish: fiyatlar\u0131n gerileyece\u011fi beklentisi) duru\u015fun en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorlar.<\/p>\n

Hisse Senetlerinde Dalgalanma ve Alt\u0131n G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc<\/h3>\n

Jeopolitik gerilimin azalmas\u0131 hisse senetleri i\u00e7in olumlu (bullish: y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisi) g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. S&P 500 \u00fczerinde al\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren opsiyonlarla (call opsiyonu: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) pozisyon art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00f6neriliyor. Dalgalanma aylard\u0131r y\u00fcksekti; VIX (piyasa korku endeksi: S&P 500 beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7er) 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde ortalama 22\u2019nin \u00fczerinde seyretti. Bu belirsizlik kalkarsa VIX\u2019in 15\u2019in alt\u0131na inmesi bekleniyor; bu da s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle y\u00fckseli\u015fi hedefleyen call spread\u2019i (iki call opsiyonunun birlikte kullan\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 strateji) cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Alt\u0131n\u0131n 4.700 dolara h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fi, g\u00fcvenli liman talebinden \u00e7ok dolar\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131na ba\u011flan\u0131yor. Risk i\u015ftah\u0131 geri d\u00f6ner ve dolar dengelenirse bu hareketin geri verilmesi bekleniyor; bu da alt\u0131n vadeli i\u015flemlerinde sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put opsiyonu: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Anla\u015fman\u0131n netle\u015fmesi, alt\u0131ndaki son y\u00fckseli\u015fi destekleyen \u00f6nemli bir unsuru ortadan kald\u0131r\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Piyasalar\u0131n g\u00f6z\u00fc bu anla\u015fmada: Axios\u2019a g\u00f6re ABD-\u0130ran H\u00fcrm\u00fcz k\u0131s\u0131tlar\u0131n\u0131 gev\u015fetip zenginle\u015ftirmeye moratoryumla yakla\u015f\u0131yor. Yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar kalkabilir, milyarlar serbest. Dolar d\u00fc\u015ferken borsalar y\u00fckseldi; petrol arz\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla 85-90 band\u0131 g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46279","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46279","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46279"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46279\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46279"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46279"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46279"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}