Rabobank\u2019un d\u00f6viz (FX) strateji ekibi, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin zay\u0131flamas\u0131 ve i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n gev\u015femesi (i\u015f bulman\u0131n kolayla\u015fmas\u0131, \u00fccret bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131) nedeniyle, piyasalar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki bir y\u0131l i\u00e7inde \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) \u00fc\u00e7 defaya kadar faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yapmas\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fcksek buluyor. Rabobank, bu y\u0131l sadece bir BoE faiz ad\u0131m\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131 ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, piyasa beklentisi bu y\u0131l BoE\u2019nin faiz indiriminden, d\u00f6rt faize kadar art\u0131r\u0131m fiyatlamas\u0131na kayd\u0131. Piyasa h\u00e2l\u00e2 bir y\u0131ll\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde \u00fc\u00e7 faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 riskini fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 bu y\u0131l gev\u015fedi. Bu, ekonomide daha fazla \u201cat\u0131l kapasite\u201d (\u00fcretimde ve istihdamda kullan\u0131lmayan bo\u015fluk) oldu\u011fu ve enflasyonun \u201cikinci tur etkileri\u201d (ilk fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fccretlere, \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n da yeniden fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na d\u00f6nmesi) riskinin azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. BoE\u2019den tek ad\u0131m beklentisine do\u011fru \u201cyeniden fiyatlama\u201d (piyasan\u0131n faiz beklentisini revize edip fiyatlara yans\u0131tmas\u0131) sterlini daha zay\u0131f b\u0131rak\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Rabobank\u2019un ana senaryosu, EUR\/GBP\u2019nin (euro\/sterlin paritesi) 9\u201312 ay ufkunda kademeli y\u00fckselmesi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019e bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan piyasan\u0131n BoE\u2019den gere\u011finden fazla faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 bekledi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Bu beklenti a\u015f\u0131r\u0131yd\u0131 ve piyasa sonras\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc d\u00fczeltti. Beklenen yeniden fiyatlama b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti ve sterlin zay\u0131flad\u0131.<\/p>\n
2026 boyunca Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 gev\u015femeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Ulusal \u0130statistik Ofisi\u2019nin (ONS) ilk \u00e7eyrek verileri, i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n %4,5\u2019e y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Bu, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l ba\u015flayan at\u0131l kapasite art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 do\u011fruluyor. B\u00f6ylece BoE\u2019nin daha fazla \u201cs\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma\u201d (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ve para politikas\u0131n\u0131 daha k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 h\u00e2le getirme) ihtiyac\u0131 azal\u0131yor. Man\u015fet T\u00dcFE (CPI, t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi) de %2,8\u2019e geriledi.<\/p>\n
Bu ekonomik tablo, euronun sterline kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesini destekledi. Son dokuz ayda EUR\/GBP, 2025 ortas\u0131ndaki 0,8600 seviyelerinden bug\u00fcn 0,8850 civar\u0131na y\u00fckseldi. BoE, nisan toplant\u0131s\u0131nda politika faizini %5,50\u2019de \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc kez sabit tutarak bu e\u011filimi peki\u015ftirdi.<\/p>\n
Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. \u0130lk \u00e7eyrek GSYH (GDP, gayrisafi yurt i\u00e7i has\u0131la) \u00f6nc\u00fc verisi %0,1 daralmaya i\u015faret ediyor. Bu nedenle EUR\/GBP\u2019de daha olas\u0131 y\u00f6n yukar\u0131. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, 3\u20136 ay vadeli EUR\/GBP \u201cal\u0131m opsiyonu\u201d (call option: belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle (zarar\u0131n \u00f6denen primle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011fu) sterlin zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan faydalanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunar.<\/p>\n
Sterlin bazl\u0131 varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 \u201chedge\u201d etmek (kur riskini azaltmak) isteyenler i\u00e7in, \u201cvadeli d\u00f6viz s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri\u201d (forward: bug\u00fcnden anla\u015f\u0131lan kurla ileride i\u015flem yapma) kullanarak GBP\u2019yi EUR\u2019ya ileride satma kurunu bug\u00fcnden sabitlemek daha temkinli bir ad\u0131m olabilir. Bu, sterlinin beklenen yava\u015f de\u011fer kayb\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flar. Euro lehine temel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm \u015fimdilik korunuyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Sterlinde oyun de\u011fi\u015fiyor: Rabobank, zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve gev\u015feyen istihdamla BoE\u2019de \u00fc\u00e7 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131 abart\u0131l\u0131 buluyor, tek ad\u0131m bekliyor; EUR\/GBP\u2019nin 9\u201312 ayda y\u00fckseli\u015fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46276","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46276","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46276"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46276\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46276"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46276"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46276"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}