\u00c7ar\u015famba, 6 May\u0131s\u2019ta piyasalar; Orta Do\u011fu haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve Japon Yeni\u2019nde \u015f\u00fcpheli d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalesi (merkez bankas\u0131 ya da kamu kurumlar\u0131n\u0131n kurdaki a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 hareketi s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in piyasaya al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m yapmas\u0131) sonras\u0131 hareketleri izlerken dalgalanma artt\u0131. ABD g\u00fcndeminde daha sonra, nisan ay\u0131na ait \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam verisi (resmi tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdamdan ayr\u0131, \u00f6zel \u015firketlerden derlenen i\u015fe al\u0131m g\u00f6stergesi) yer al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, \u0130ran\u2019la kal\u0131c\u0131 bir bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131na do\u011fru \u201cb\u00fcy\u00fck ilerleme\u201d kaydedildi\u011fini s\u00f6yleyerek \u201cProject Freedom\u201du durdurdu. \u0130ran Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Mesud Peze\u015fkiyan ise ABD\u2019nin \u201cazami bask\u0131 politikas\u0131\u201d izledi\u011fini ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n tek tarafl\u0131 ABD taleplerine boyun e\u011fmesinin \u201cimk\u00e2ns\u0131z\u201d oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
WTI ham petrol\u00fc (ABD tipi ham petrol g\u00f6stergesi) 96 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k %4 geriledi. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY \u2013 dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7en sepet endeks) %0,5 d\u00fc\u015ferek 98,00 seviyesine yak\u0131nlad\u0131. ABD hisse endeksi vadeli i\u015flemleri (future \u2013 ileri tarihli al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) Avrupa seans\u0131nda %0,3 ile %0,8 aras\u0131 y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY, bir saatten k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede 158,00 civar\u0131ndan 155,00\u2019e geriledi; ard\u0131ndan 156,20 seviyesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %1,1 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f kaydetti. EUR\/USD yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,4 art\u0131\u015fla 1,1730\u2019a yakla\u015ft\u0131; GBP\/USD 1,3600 civar\u0131na y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
AUD\/USD %0,7\u2019nin \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselerek 0,7230\u2019un \u00fcst\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu seviye Haziran 2022\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fckse\u011fi. Alt\u0131n %2,5\u2019ten fazla artarak 4.700 dolara do\u011fru y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
\u0130stihdam ko\u015fullar\u0131 para birimlerini; harcama, b\u00fcy\u00fcme, enflasyon ve merkez bankas\u0131 politikas\u0131 \u00fczerinden etkiler. \u00dccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 (wage growth \u2013 maa\u015flar\u0131n art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131), kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyonun kayna\u011f\u0131 olabildi\u011fi i\u00e7in yak\u0131ndan izlenir. Fed (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) ve ECB (Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131) dahil merkez bankalar\u0131, politika kararlar\u0131nda i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc verilerini dikkate al\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Japon Yeni\u2019ndeki \u015f\u00fcpheli m\u00fcdahaleye yak\u0131ndan bakmak gerekir; bu, karar al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n belirli bir seviyeyi savunmaya istekli oldu\u011funa i\u015faret eder. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fte 2024\u2019te benzer sert hareketler g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f, Japon yetkililer para birimini desteklemek i\u00e7in yakla\u015f\u0131k 60 milyar dolar harcam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu ge\u00e7mi\u015f, yen opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (implied volatility \u2013 opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ima etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) artabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcr. Bu durumda, b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketlerinden kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen \u201cuzun straddle\u201d gibi stratejiler (long straddle \u2013 ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonunu birlikte almak; sert yukar\u0131\/a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 hareketten yararlanmak) opsiyon satmaya g\u00f6re daha \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir.<\/p>\n
ABD dolar\u0131ndaki zay\u0131fl\u0131k, a\u00e7\u0131klanacak \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam raporuna ba\u011fl\u0131; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc bu veri Fed\u2019in bir sonraki ad\u0131m\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentileri \u015fekillendirir. Beklentilerin alt\u0131nda bir sonu\u00e7, 2023 sonundaki yava\u015flamalara benzer \u015fekilde daha erken faiz indirimi fiyatlanmas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirip dolar\u0131 daha da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekebilir. T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (derivative \u2013 de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fme) i\u015flemcileri bu nedenle DXY\u2019de a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n riskine g\u00f6re konum alabilir; korunma ya da beklenti ama\u00e7l\u0131 sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (put option \u2013 belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) kullan\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n
WTI\u2019da g\u00f6r\u00fclen %4\u2019l\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, jeopolitik risk priminin (risk premium \u2013 belirsizlik nedeniyle fiyata eklenen ekstra pay) ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 silinebilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da tansiyonun d\u00fc\u015fmesi, petrol oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 azaltabilir. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fte OVX\u2019in (oil volatility index \u2013 petrol piyasas\u0131ndaki beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks) gerilimin azalmas\u0131 sonras\u0131 bir haftada \u00e7ift haneli oranlarda d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc d\u00f6nemler g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Bu durum, olas\u0131 ek d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flere kar\u015f\u0131 sat\u0131m opsiyonu alarak korunmay\u0131 mant\u0131kl\u0131 k\u0131lar; ancak oynakl\u0131k daha \u00f6nce y\u00fckseldiyse maliyet artm\u0131\u015f olabilir.<\/p>\n
Piyasa havas\u0131ndaki olumlu de\u011fi\u015fimle, ABD\u2019nin b\u00fcy\u00fck hisse endekslerinde al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call option \u2013 belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) daha cazip hale gelebilir. VIX\u2019in (S&P 500 i\u00e7in beklenen oynakl\u0131k endeksi) son zirvelerden geri \u00e7ekilmesi beklenebilir; 2024 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki risk i\u015ftah\u0131 art\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda benzer \u015fekilde 15\u2019in alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck VIX, bu al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n maliyetini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrerek y\u00fckseli\u015fe daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetle kat\u0131lma imk\u00e2n\u0131 verebilir.<\/p>\n
Avustralya Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 2022 ortas\u0131ndan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeye t\u0131rmanmas\u0131, risk i\u015ftah\u0131 ve ABD dolar\u0131ndaki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n etkili oldu\u011fu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir hareket. 0,7230 \u00fczerindeki k\u0131r\u0131lma (breakout \u2013 belirgin direncin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131), y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filiminin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret edebilir. Bu momentumdan yararlan\u0131rken riski s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in \u201ccall spread\u201d (iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131p satarak maliyeti ve riski s\u0131n\u0131rlayan strateji) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n, esas olarak dolar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden destek buluyor; bu sayede risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu ortamda bile y\u00fckselebiliyor. Son y\u0131llarda alt\u0131n ile Dolar Endeksi aras\u0131ndaki negatif ili\u015fki (negative correlation \u2013 biri y\u00fckselirken di\u011ferinin d\u00fc\u015fme e\u011filimi) -0,5\u2019ten daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretti; bu da alt\u0131n\u0131 dolar hareketlerine kar\u015f\u0131 bir ara\u00e7 haline getiriyor. Bu nedenle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ABD dolar\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisini ifade etmek i\u00e7in alt\u0131n vadeli i\u015flemleri veya opsiyonlar\u0131 (futures\/options \u2013 ileri tarihli s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler ve al\u0131m-sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) kullan\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Orta Do\u011fu man\u015fetleri ve olas\u0131 Yen m\u00fcdahalesi piyasay\u0131 sallad\u0131: USD\/JPY sert d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc, DXY geriledi. WTI %4 \u00e7\u00f6kt\u00fc, alt\u0131n s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131, AUD zirvede. G\u00f6zler ABD \u00f6zel istihdam verisinde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46274","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46274","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46274"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46274\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46274"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46274"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46274"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}