EUR\/JPY \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc 185,00 seviyesinin hemen alt\u0131ndan 182,05\u2019e geriledi, ard\u0131ndan 183,40\u2019a toparland\u0131. Di\u011fer Yen paritelerinde de benzer hareketler g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi, Japonya Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131na m\u00fcdahale edebilen kurum) devreye girmi\u015f olabilece\u011fi \u015f\u00fcphesini art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Japonya d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahaleleri hakk\u0131nda yorum yapm\u0131yor. Ancak Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BOJ) taraf\u0131ndan ge\u00e7en hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanan veriler, bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n ge\u00e7en Per\u015fembe Yen\u2019i desteklemek i\u00e7in 5,48 trilyon Yen (35 milyar dolar) kullanm\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret etti. Eski bir Japon yetkili, Golden Week tatili s\u0131ras\u0131nda (Japonya\u2019da piyasalar\u0131n daha s\u0131\u011f kald\u0131\u011f\u0131, dalgalanman\u0131n artabildi\u011fi d\u00f6nem) ek ad\u0131m gelebilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda da bulundu.<\/p>\n
Maliye Bakan\u0131 Satsuki Katayama, Tokyo\u2019nun Yen\u2019de spek\u00fclatif sat\u0131\u015flara (k\u0131sa vadeli, fiyat\u0131 zorlayan i\u015flemler) kar\u015f\u0131 harekete ge\u00e7ece\u011fini bu hafta yineledi. Katayama, \u00d6zbekistan\u2019daki Asya Kalk\u0131nma Bankas\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131nda, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l ABD ile imzalanan ortak a\u00e7\u0131klamayla uyumlu \u015fekilde \u201ckararl\u0131 \u00f6nlemler\u201d al\u0131naca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Odak \u015fimdi Euro B\u00f6lgesi verilerine \u00e7evrildi. G\u00fcndemde Almanya ve Euro B\u00f6lgesi Nisan ay\u0131 nihai HCOB Hizmet PMI verileri ile Mart \u00dcFE (\u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi: \u00fcretici fiyatlar\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fimi g\u00f6sterir) bulunuyor. Japonya\u2019da ise Per\u015fembe Asya seans\u0131nda \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc Nakit Kazan\u00e7lar\u0131 (\u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 izleyen veri) ve BOJ\u2019un son politika toplant\u0131s\u0131na ait tutanaklar (kararlar\u0131n arka plan\u0131n\u0131 veren metin) a\u00e7\u0131klanacak.<\/p>\n
EUR\/JPY\u2019nin 195,50 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde, Japon yetkililerden m\u00fcdahale riski yeniden tan\u0131d\u0131k hale geliyor. May\u0131s 2025\u2019teki d\u00f6nemde, m\u00fcdahale \u015f\u00fcphesi pariteyi birka\u00e7 saat i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k 300 pip (d\u00f6vizde k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck fiyat ad\u0131m\u0131; b\u00fcy\u00fck paritelerde genelde 0,01) a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmi\u015fti. Mevcut y\u00fcksek seviyeler, benzer \u015fekilde sert ve ani bir hareket ihtimalini art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019teki m\u00fcdahale verilerine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kuru savunmak i\u00e7in yakla\u015f\u0131k 5,48 trilyon Yen kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor. Bu ad\u0131m, Yen aleyhine \u201cspek\u00fclatif\u201d hareketleri s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in ciddi kaynak kullan\u0131labilece\u011fini ortaya koymu\u015ftu. Bu ge\u00e7mi\u015f \u00f6rnek, \u015fu an piyasan\u0131n en yak\u0131ndan izlemesi gereken unsur.<\/p>\n
Temel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm ise Yen\u2019in zay\u0131f kalmas\u0131n\u0131 destekliyor ve bu da gerilimi art\u0131r\u0131yor. Faiz fark\u0131 (iki \u00fclkenin faizleri aras\u0131ndaki fark) y\u00fcksek: ECB politika faizi %3,0 iken BOJ faizi %0,5 seviyesinde. Bu durum, ta\u015f\u0131ma i\u015flemlerini (carry trade: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli para biriminden bor\u00e7lan\u0131p y\u00fcksek faizli para birimine ge\u00e7erek faiz fark\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen strateji) te\u015fvik ederek JPY sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Euro B\u00f6lgesi \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonunun %2,7\u2019de diren\u00e7li kalmas\u0131 da ECB\u2019nin faiz indirimlerinde yava\u015f davranabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor; bu da bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesine neden oluyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn piyasas\u0131nda i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in bu tablo, Yen paritelerinde ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lan, piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011fi dalgalanma) belirgin \u015fekilde artabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. 2025\u2019teki m\u00fcdahale d\u00f6neminde USD\/JPY\u2019de 1 ayl\u0131k ima edilen oynakl\u0131k yakla\u015f\u0131k %8\u2019den %12\u2019nin \u00fczerine y\u00fckselmi\u015f, opsiyonlar\u0131 ciddi bi\u00e7imde pahal\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Benzer bir s\u0131\u00e7rama olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek.<\/p>\n
Bu ortamda, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc korunma almak (downside protection: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta) daha mant\u0131kl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin EUR\/JPY sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131, kurda m\u00fcdahale kaynakl\u0131 ani bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fanmas\u0131 halinde de\u011fer kazan\u0131r. M\u00fcdahale endi\u015fesi b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fck\u00e7e bu opsiyonlar\u0131n primi (maliyeti) artabilece\u011finden, erken pozisyon alanlar avantaj sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz sat\u0131\u015f kap\u0131da: EUR\/JPY 185\u2019ten 182\u2019ye sarkt\u0131, 183,40\u2019a d\u00f6nd\u00fc; MOF\u2019un 5,48 trilyon Yen\u2019lik m\u00fcdahalesi ve Golden Week riski yeniden fiyatlan\u0131yor. ECB-BOJ faiz fark\u0131 carry\u2019yi canl\u0131 tutarken, opsiyon oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131\u00e7rayabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46250","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46250","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46250"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46250\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46250"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46250"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46250"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}