USD\/CHF ikinci g\u00fcnde de geriledi ve \u00c7ar\u015famba Asya seans\u0131nda 0,7800 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Hareketin arkas\u0131nda, ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131 umuduna ba\u011fl\u0131 \u201crisk i\u015ftah\u0131 y\u00fcksek\u201d (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6neldi\u011fi) hava nedeniyle ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131 vard\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD Savunma Bakan\u0131 Pete Hegseth\u2019e g\u00f6re yakla\u015f\u0131k bir ay \u00f6nce ba\u015flayan ate\u015fkes (\u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n durmas\u0131) y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fckte. ABD D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Marco Rubio, sald\u0131r\u0131 operasyonlar\u0131n\u0131n bitti\u011fini, oda\u011f\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki (petrol ve ticaret ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in kritik deniz ge\u00e7idi) deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 rotalar\u0131n\u0131 korumaya kayd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, ABD\u2019nin H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda mahsur kalan gemilerin b\u00f6lgeden ayr\u0131lmas\u0131na yard\u0131m \u00e7abalar\u0131n\u0131 ge\u00e7ici olarak durduraca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na giden ve \u0130ran limanlar\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kan gemilere y\u00f6nelik abluka (giri\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131n k\u0131s\u0131tlanmas\u0131) ise devam edecek.<\/p>\n
Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f de ABD Dolar\u0131 \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131; bu durum enflasyon (genel fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131) endi\u015felerini azaltt\u0131. B\u00f6ylece ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 kontrol i\u00e7in faiz art\u0131rma ihtiyac\u0131 duyaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi zay\u0131flad\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019de man\u015fet enflasyon (genel enflasyon) Nisan\u2019da y\u0131ll\u0131k %0,6\u2019ya y\u00fckseldi; Mart\u2019taki %0,3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fcst\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve SNB\u2019nin (\u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131) bu y\u0131l i\u00e7in %0,5 ortalama tahminini a\u015ft\u0131. \u00c7ekirdek enflasyon (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7) %0,4\u2019ten %0,3\u2019e geriledi; bu, Temmuz 2021\u2019den beri en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviye.<\/p>\n
SNB\u2019nin Haziran\u2019da faizi %0\u2019da tutmas\u0131 ve muhtemelen \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 12 ay boyunca bu seviyeyi korumas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019e d\u00f6n\u00fcp bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, \u0130ran\u2019la anla\u015fma umutlar\u0131n\u0131n dolar\u0131n belirgin \u015fekilde zay\u0131flamas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve USD\/CHF paritesini 0,7800\u2019e do\u011fru itti\u011fini hat\u0131rl\u0131yoruz. Bu \u201crisk i\u015ftah\u0131 y\u00fcksek\u201d hava, daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ve daha az \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faiz art\u0131rmaya daha istekli) bir Fed beklentisiyle g\u00fc\u00e7lenmi\u015fti. Piyasan\u0131n ana dinami\u011fi, jeopolitik gerilimin azalmas\u0131yd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcn 6 May\u0131s 2026\u2019da tablo belirgin bi\u00e7imde farkl\u0131 ve USD\/CHF 0,9450 civar\u0131nda. Ana itici g\u00fc\u00e7 art\u0131k ABD ile \u0130svi\u00e7re aras\u0131ndaki net faiz fark\u0131. Fed politika faizi %4,0\u2019ta kal\u0131rken SNB politika faizi %0,75 seviyesinde; dolardaki getiri avantaj\u0131 (faiz geliri \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc) g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Bu \u201cpolitika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131\u201d (merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n farkl\u0131 y\u00f6nde hareket etmesi), piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 haline gelen farkl\u0131 enflasyon verilerine dayan\u0131yor. ABD\u2019de \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun %2,8\u2019in alt\u0131na inmekte zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019de ise Nisan 2026 T\u00dcFE\u2019nin (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi) y\u0131ll\u0131k %1,4 gibi sakin bir seviyede geldi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu, SNB\u2019ye daha fazla faiz indirimi alan\u0131 verirken Fed\u2019i temkinli tutuyor.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019teki iyimserli\u011fin aksine, ba\u015fka b\u00f6lgelerde jeopolitik gerilim yeniden artt\u0131 ve WTI ham petrol\u00fc (ABD tipi ham petrol fiyat g\u00f6stergesi) varil ba\u015f\u0131na 85 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde tutuyor. Bu, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki geri \u00e7ekilmenin tersine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar art\u0131k bu belirsizlikte daha \u00e7ok \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f d\u00f6neminde tercih edilen) olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (fiyat\u0131 ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in bu, USD\/CHF \u201ccall opsiyonu\u201d (belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 0,9500 ve 0,9600 \u201ckullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131\u201d (strike) civar\u0131nda de\u011ferlendirme fikrini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Ayr\u0131ca \u201cout-of-the-money put\u201d (kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut seviyenin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in \u015fu an k\u00e2rs\u0131z olan satma hakk\u0131) sat\u0131p \u201cprim\u201d (opsiyon geliri) toplamak da faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n pariteye g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir taban sa\u011flamas\u0131 nedeniyle cazip olabilir. 2025\u2019in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeleri art\u0131k uzak g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Paritede \u201cz\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k\u201d (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) faiz fark\u0131 hik\u00e2yesi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kald\u0131k\u00e7a d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filiminde. Bu, oynakl\u0131k al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 (dalgalanma \u00fczerine pozisyon) pahal\u0131 hale getirebilir; ancak gelir ama\u00e7l\u0131 stratejiler i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat yaratabilir. Yine de merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00f6nlendirmesinde (faiz ve politika sinyalleri) ani de\u011fi\u015fimler olursa fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131 geri gelebilece\u011fi i\u00e7in yak\u0131ndan izlemek gerekir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/CHF\u2019te sert d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f: 2025\u2019te \u0130ran ate\u015fkesi ve d\u00fc\u015fen petrol dolar\u0131 0,7800\u2019e iterken, 6 May\u0131s 2026\u2019da 0,9450\u2019de belirleyici Fed-SNB faiz fark\u0131, g\u00fcvenli liman talebi ve opsiyon stratejileri.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46247","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46247","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46247"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46247\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46247"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46247"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46247"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}