EUR\/USD, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde risk i\u015ftah\u0131ndaki (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme iste\u011fi) iyile\u015fmenin deste\u011fiyle 1,1720\u2019ye do\u011fru y\u00fckseldi. Piyasalar, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc ilerleyen saatlerde a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD ADP \u0130stihdam De\u011fi\u015fimi raporunu (ADP\u2019nin \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam\u0131ndaki ayl\u0131k de\u011fi\u015fimi \u00f6l\u00e7en \u00f6nc\u00fc veri) bekledi.<\/p>\n
Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc The Guardian, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n Project Freedom ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan (k\u00fcresel petrol sevkiyat\u0131 i\u00e7in kritik ge\u00e7i\u015f noktas\u0131) gemi hareketlerinin duraklat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi\u011fini aktard\u0131. Trump, ABD ablukas\u0131n\u0131n \u201ctam g\u00fc\u00e7le y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fckte kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u201d s\u00f6yledi ve bu duraklaman\u0131n olas\u0131 bir ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n tamamlan\u0131p imzalanmas\u0131na zaman tan\u0131mak i\u00e7in yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ekledi.<\/p>\n
ABD Savunma Bakan\u0131 Pete Hegseth, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki sald\u0131r\u0131lara ra\u011fmen ABD-\u0130ran ate\u015fkesinin (\u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n durmas\u0131) y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fckte oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar ate\u015fkese ve Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki daha geni\u015f gerilime ili\u015fkin haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 izlemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Avrupa\u2019da Avrupa Komisyonu, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc AB\u2019nin ticaretten sorumlu yetkilisinin ABD\u2019ye, ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki AB-ABD ticaret anla\u015fmas\u0131nda yer alan tarifeleri (ithal \u00fcr\u00fcnlere uygulanan vergi) h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde yeniden devreye almas\u0131 \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131 yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Komisyon, anla\u015fman\u0131n temeldeki h\u00fck\u00fcmlerinin Temmuz sonundaki bir y\u0131ll\u0131k d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131ndan \u00f6nce netle\u015fmesinin s\u00fcrece katk\u0131 sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n
Reuters\u2019a g\u00f6re Maros Sefcovic, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Paris\u2019te ABD Ticaret Temsilcisi Jamieson Greer ile g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. AB\u2019nin endi\u015feleri aras\u0131nda, Trump\u2019\u0131n AB men\u015feli otomobil ve kamyonlara uygulanan tarifeleri %25\u2019e \u00e7\u0131karma tehdidi de yer al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik riskteki de\u011fi\u015fimler, \u00f6rne\u011fin 2025\u2019te g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz Project Freedom duraklamas\u0131 gibi geli\u015fmeler, risk alma iste\u011fini art\u0131rarak EUR\/USD\u2019yi yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu t\u00fcr \u00f6rnekler mevcut ortam\u0131 anlamak i\u00e7in yol g\u00f6sterici. Gerginli\u011fin azalmas\u0131na dair her i\u015faret, dolar\u0131n \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (belirsizlikte s\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131lan para birimi) cazibesini zay\u0131flatma e\u011filiminde.<\/p>\n
Benzer bir tablo \u015fu anda Tayvan Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda deniz unsurlar\u0131n\u0131n geri \u00e7ekilmesiyle (askeri varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n azalt\u0131lmas\u0131) g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; bu ad\u0131m piyasa endi\u015felerini belirgin bi\u00e7imde rahatlatt\u0131. CBOE Volatilite Endeksi (VIX) (piyasan\u0131n oynakl\u0131k beklentisini \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) bunu yans\u0131tarak son iki haftada yakla\u015f\u0131k %10 geriledi ve 14\u2019\u00fcn hemen \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Bu, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oynakl\u0131ktan faydalanan ve dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda daha riskli para birimlerinde kademeli y\u00fckseli\u015fi hedefleyen stratejileri de\u011ferlendirebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in bu ortam, prim satmay\u0131 (opsiyon satarak gelir elde etmeyi) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. EUR\/USD\u2019de \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d (\u015fu anki fiyattan uzak, kullan\u0131lma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck) put opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131larak gelir elde edilirken paritenin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fi hedeflenebilir. Alternatif olarak, y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc \u201ccall spread\u201d (yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc beklentiyle iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan al\u0131m opsiyonu kombinasyonu) riski ba\u015ftan s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131r ve hedeflenen bir y\u00fckseli\u015f seviyesine odaklan\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Ancak ABD ile G\u00fcney Amerika ticaret blo\u011fu Mercosur (G\u00fcney Amerika ortak pazar\u0131) aras\u0131ndaki elektrikli ara\u00e7 te\u015fvikleri (devlet destekleri) kaynakl\u0131 ticaret s\u00fcrt\u00fc\u015fmesi de hesaba kat\u0131lmal\u0131. Bu durum, ge\u00e7mi\u015fte AB ile ya\u015fanan tarife belirsizli\u011fine benziyor. \u00c7\u00f6z\u00fclmemi\u015f ticaret ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131, yak\u0131n vadede euronun g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu ticaret gerilimi, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc korumay\u0131 (olas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta) elde tutmay\u0131 gerekli k\u0131l\u0131yor. Basit bir korunma y\u00f6ntemi, daha ucuz olan ve daha da \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d EUR\/USD put opsiyonlar\u0131 almakt\u0131r. Bu, ticaret g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri beklenmedik \u015fekilde bozulursa portf\u00f6y\u00fc ani bir geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 koruyabilir.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcm bunlar\u0131n \u00fczerinde Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (NFP) raporu (ABD\u2019de tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerde istihdam de\u011fi\u015fimi; piyasada en \u00e7ok izlenen veri) var ve jeopolitik havay\u0131 kolayca ikinci plana itebilir. Nisan\u2019daki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc veride 265 bin ki\u015filik istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; bir ba\u015fka g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sonu\u00e7, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faizleri daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutmas\u0131 ihtimalini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirir. Piyasa beklentisi \u015fu an yakla\u015f\u0131k 210 bin seviyesinde; b\u00fcy\u00fck bir sapma oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle euroda y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar, bu kritik veri riskine g\u00f6re kurgulanmal\u0131. Veri a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda kald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131 vadeli i\u015flemler (k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck teminatla b\u00fcy\u00fck pozisyon; riski b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcr) ta\u015f\u0131maktansa, riski s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 opsiyon spread\u2019leri daha g\u00fcvenlidir. B\u00f6ylece gerilimin azalmas\u0131ndan gelen yukar\u0131 potansiyele kat\u0131l\u0131rken, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ABD istihdam verisinin do\u011furabilece\u011fi kay\u0131plar s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz rahatlama r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131! Risk i\u015ftah\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla EUR\/USD 1,1720\u2019ye t\u0131rman\u0131yor; H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\/ate\u015fkes ve AB-ABD tarife ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131 izleniyor. G\u00f6zler ADP-NFP\u2019de, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck VIX opsiyon stratejilerini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46241","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46241","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46241"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46241\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46241"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46241"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46241"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}