\u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc \u00c7in Merkez Bankas\u0131 (PBOC), bir sonraki i\u015flem seans\u0131 i\u00e7in USD\/CNY (ABD dolar\u0131\/\u00c7in yuan\u0131) orta nokta kurunu 6,8562 olarak belirledi.<\/p>\n
Bu seviye, ge\u00e7en cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc resmi sabitleme (fix: Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fcn ba\u015f\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nlendirici kur) olan 6,8628\u2019e k\u0131yasla daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc; Reuters tahmini olan 6,8160\u2019in ise \u00fczerinde kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u00c7in Merkez Bankas\u0131, yuan\u0131n (CNY) de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131n\u0131 (de\u011ferlenme: yerel paran\u0131n di\u011fer para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi) serbest b\u0131rakmak yerine kontrol etmeyi hedefledi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Orta nokta kur ge\u00e7en haftaya g\u00f6re daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc belirlendi; ancak piyasa beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Bu, de\u011ferlenme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 bilin\u00e7li \u015fekilde yava\u015flatma mesaj\u0131 veriyor. Yani y\u00f6n daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc yuan olabilir; fakat s\u00fcre\u00e7 s\u0131k\u0131 \u015fekilde y\u00f6netilecek.<\/p>\n
Bu ad\u0131m, \u00c7in\u2019in 2026 ilk \u00e7eyrek GSYH (GDP: gayrisafi yurt i\u00e7i has\u0131la, ekonominin toplam \u00fcretimi) b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin %4,8 ile g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelmesinin ard\u0131ndan geldi. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, bu hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanan nisan ihracat verisi y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda (y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re) %1,2 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6stererek s\u00fcrpriz yapt\u0131. Zay\u0131f d\u0131\u015f ticaret, ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131 daha da zorlayaca\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011ferlenen bir para birimine izin verme konusundaki isteksizli\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yor. Merkez bankas\u0131, istikrar ihtiyac\u0131 ile d\u0131\u015f talepteki zay\u0131fl\u0131k aras\u0131nda denge kuruyor.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019ten geriye bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, 2024 boyunca belirgin dalgalanmalar (volatilite: fiyatlar\u0131n k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede sert ini\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f yapmas\u0131) g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. USD\/CNY paritesi (parite: iki para birimi aras\u0131ndaki kur) s\u0131k s\u0131k 7,30 seviyesini test etmi\u015f, bu da sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 (capital outflow: yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00fclkeden para \u00e7\u0131karmas\u0131) endi\u015felerini art\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Merkez bankas\u0131, o d\u00f6nemin dersleriyle keskin ve spek\u00fclatif (k\u0131sa vadeli fiyat hareketinden kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen) hareketleri s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in devreye giriyor. Ama\u00e7, iki y\u0131l \u00f6nceki t\u00fcrden oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6nlemek.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev (derivative: de\u011feri d\u00f6viz kuru gibi bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 olan s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) i\u015flemleri yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu tablo, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda k\u0131sa vadeli oynakl\u0131k sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in uygun bir zemin yarat\u0131yor. PBOC\u2019nin ad\u0131m\u0131, USD\/CNY\u2019nin ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015febilece\u011fine fiilen bir s\u0131n\u0131r koyuyor. Bu nedenle k\u0131sa vadeli strangle sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 (strangle: farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131ndan ayn\u0131 vadede al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu; satmak, oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesi\/az kalmas\u0131 beklentisiyle prim toplamakt\u0131r) gibi stratejiler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Kurun dar bir bantta tutulmas\u0131 hedefleniyor.<\/p>\n
Daha y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir yakla\u015f\u0131m ise USD\/CNY\u2019de kademeli ve kontroll\u00fc bir gerilemeye (yani yuan\u0131n yava\u015f de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131na) opsiyonlarla (option: belirli bir fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) pozisyon almak olabilir. Do\u011frudan vadeli i\u015flem (futures: ileri tarihte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) yerine risk-reversal (risk reversal: genelde bir al\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131p bir sat\u0131m opsiyonu satmak; kurun belirli y\u00f6nde hareketine oynarken maliyeti azaltmay\u0131 ama\u00e7lar) kurulabilir. Bu yap\u0131, CNH call (CNH al\u0131m opsiyonu: \u00c7in\u2019in offshore yuan\u0131 olan CNH\u2019nin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesinden kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen opsiyon) al\u0131p CNH put (CNH sat\u0131m opsiyonu: CNH\u2019nin zay\u0131flamas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayan opsiyon) satmay\u0131 i\u00e7erir. B\u00f6ylece yava\u015f de\u011ferlenmeden kazan\u00e7 hedeflenirken, PBOC\u2019nin yuan\u0131 beklenmedik \u015fekilde zay\u0131flatmas\u0131 halinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n riski s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131l\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Gelecek hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanacak nisan sanayi \u00fcretimi (industrial production: fabrikalar ve \u00fcretim sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131s\u0131) ve perakende sat\u0131\u015f (retail sales: t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6stergesi) verileri, i\u00e7 talebin g\u00fcc\u00fc hakk\u0131nda sinyal verecek. ABD taraf\u0131nda ise yakla\u015fan T\u00dcFE (CPI: t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi, enflasyonun temel g\u00f6stergesi) verisi kritik olacak; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc Fed\u2019in (Federal Reserve: ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) politika beklentisini ve dolardaki g\u00fc\u00e7lenme\/zay\u0131flama e\u011filimini do\u011frudan etkiler. Bu veriler, PBOC\u2019nin kontroll\u00fc de\u011ferlenme \u00e7izgisini s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcp s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeyece\u011fini belirleyecek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
PBOC, USD\/CNY fix\u2019ini 6,8562\u2019ye \u00e7ekerek yuanda kontroll\u00fc de\u011ferlenme sinyali verdi. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye kar\u015f\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fen ihracat h\u0131z kesiyor; volatilite bask\u0131lan\u0131yor. Opsiyonda strangle sat\u0131\u015f\u0131, risk-reversal \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46239","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46239","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46239"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46239\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46239"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46239"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46239"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}