{"id":46231,"date":"2026-05-06T04:57:29","date_gmt":"2026-05-06T04:57:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/nbc-stratejistleri-marion-ve-dahms-yuanin-guclenmesinin-enerji-akislarini-ve-cinde-imalat-ile-ufe-verilerindeki-iyilesmeyi-yansittigini-soyluyor\/"},"modified":"2026-05-06T04:57:29","modified_gmt":"2026-05-06T04:57:29","slug":"nbc-stratejistleri-marion-ve-dahms-yuanin-guclenmesinin-enerji-akislarini-ve-cinde-imalat-ile-ufe-verilerindeki-iyilesmeyi-yansittigini-soyluyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/nbc-stratejistleri-marion-ve-dahms-yuanin-guclenmesinin-enerji-akislarini-ve-cinde-imalat-ile-ufe-verilerindeki-iyilesmeyi-yansittigini-soyluyor\/","title":{"rendered":"NBC stratejistleri Marion ve Dahms, yuan\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesinin enerji ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 ve \u00c7in\u2019de imalat ile \u00dcFE verilerindeki iyile\u015fmeyi yans\u0131tt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u00c7in yuan\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendi; \u00e7eyreklik ortalama bazda USD\/CNY \u00e7ok y\u0131ll\u0131 dip seviyelere yak\u0131n. Bu hareket yaln\u0131zca ABD dolar\u0131ndaki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa de\u011fil, enerji \u00f6demelerinden (enerji ticaretinin bedelini \u00f6deme ama\u00e7l\u0131 para transferleri) kaynaklanan artan d\u00f6viz giri\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131na da ba\u011fl\u0131.<\/p>\n

\u00c7in\u2019de imalat (sanayi \u00fcretimine dayal\u0131 sekt\u00f6r) faaliyeti toparland\u0131 ve \u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi (\u00dcFE\/PPI: \u00fcreticilerin satt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin fabrika \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f fiyatlar\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fim) verisi g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. Bu durum, agresif politika gev\u015fetmesi (faiz indirimi ve benzeri destek ad\u0131mlar\u0131) bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Y\u00f6netilen Yuan De\u011ferlenmesi G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc<\/h3>\n

Yuanda ek de\u011fer kazan\u0131m\u0131 bekleniyor; ancak \u00c7in Halk Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (PBoC: \u00fclkenin merkez bankas\u0131) s\u0131k\u0131 kontrol\u00fc alt\u0131nda. Ama\u00e7, \u00f6zellikle enerji taraf\u0131nda ithal enflasyonu (ithal \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin pahalanmas\u0131n\u0131n fiyatlara yans\u0131mas\u0131) s\u0131n\u0131rlamak ve g\u00fcveni desteklemek.<\/p>\n

Politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n, ihracat\u00e7\u0131lara zarar verebilecek veya spek\u00fclatif pozisyonlanmay\u0131 (k\u0131sa vadeli fiyat hareketi beklentisiyle yap\u0131lan i\u015flemler) te\u015fvik edebilecek tek y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir hareketi engellemesi bekleniyor. Ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme sert bi\u00e7imde yava\u015flamad\u0131k\u00e7a, e\u011filim daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ama y\u00f6netilen bir yuandan yana.<\/p>\n

Yuan\u0131n kontroll\u00fc de\u011fer kazan\u0131m\u0131 beklentisiyle, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n USD\/CNY kurunda yava\u015f ve istikrarl\u0131 bir gerilemeden (yani dolar\u0131n yuan kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zay\u0131flamas\u0131ndan) fayda sa\u011flayan stratejileri de\u011ferlendirmesi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Yuan, yaln\u0131zca ABD dolar\u0131 zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in de\u011fil, daha geni\u015f nedenlerle g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor; bu e\u011filimin s\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz. Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n kur art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 dikkatle y\u00f6netmesi nedeniyle y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131k (k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede sert fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) hedefleyen i\u015flemlerin cayd\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 muhtemel.<\/p>\n

Enerji \u00d6demeleri Deste\u011fi<\/h3>\n

Enerji ticaretinde yuan kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131, para birimi i\u00e7in yap\u0131sal bir destek unsuru. 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fi boyunca \u015eanghay Uluslararas\u0131 Enerji Borsas\u0131\u2019nda yuan cinsinden (CNY ile fiyatlanan) petrol vadeli i\u015flem ticaretinde (gelecekte teslimat i\u00e7in bug\u00fcnden yap\u0131lan kontratlar) belirgin art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6zleniyor. Bu, spek\u00fclatif ak\u0131mlardan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z \u015fekilde CNY\u2019ye y\u00f6nelik d\u00fczenli ticari talebe (\u015firketlerin \u00f6deme ihtiyac\u0131na) i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n

\u00c7in Halk Bankas\u0131, ithal enflasyonu dengelemek i\u00e7in bu kademeli de\u011fer kazan\u0131m\u0131na muhtemelen izin verecek; ancak d\u00fczensiz bir ralliye (kontrolden \u00e7\u0131kan h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fe) de engel olacakt\u0131r. 2025\u2019in ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda, banka g\u00fcnl\u00fck referans kuru (fixing: merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck y\u00f6nlendirme kuru) beklenenden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc belirleyerek yuan\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nlendirmi\u015f, ayn\u0131 zamanda devlet bankalar\u0131 \u00fczerinden dolar al\u0131mlar\u0131yla (piyasadaki dalgalanmay\u0131 yumu\u015fatmak i\u00e7in) y\u00fckseli\u015fi daha kontroll\u00fc hale getirmi\u015fti. Bu tempo, otoritelerin ihracat\u00e7\u0131lara zarar verebilecek \u201ctek y\u00f6nl\u00fc bahis\u201d alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nlemek istedi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa\/kur seviyesine ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) i\u015flemleri yapanlar i\u00e7in bu ortam, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oynakl\u0131ktan ve kademeli y\u00f6n hareketinden faydalanan stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. CNH (offshore yuan: \u00c7in d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki piyasalarda i\u015flem g\u00f6ren yuan) \u00fczerinden, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut seviyenin \u00fczerinde olan USD al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (out-of-the-money USD call: dolar\u0131n belirli bir fiyattan al\u0131nma hakk\u0131 veren, \u015fu an i\u00e7in k\u00e2rs\u0131z opsiyon) satmak, prim (opsiyon sat\u0131c\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n pe\u015fin ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fccret) toplamak i\u00e7in uygun olabilir; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc ani ve sert bir de\u011ferlenme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ancak s\u0131k\u0131 bi\u00e7imde y\u00f6netilen bir yuan beklentisiyle uyumlu.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Yuan s\u00fcrpriz g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor: USD\/CNY \u00e7ok y\u0131ll\u0131 dipte. Enerji \u00f6demeleri ve \u00fcretimde toparlanma ak\u0131m\u0131 destekliyor. PBoC, ithal enflasyonu s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in kontroll\u00fc de\u011ferlenmeye izin verirken tek y\u00f6nl\u00fc ralliye fren.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46231","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46231","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46231"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46231\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46231"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46231"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46231"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}