Yeni Zelanda\u2019n\u0131n i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne kat\u0131l\u0131m oran\u0131, ilk \u00e7eyrekte %70,4 oldu. Piyasa beklentisi %70,5\u2019ti.<\/p>\n
Sonu\u00e7, tahminlerin 0,1 puan alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Veri 1\u00c7 d\u00f6nemine ait.<\/p>\n
1\u00c7 kat\u0131l\u0131m oran\u0131ndaki k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck sapma, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda so\u011fuma anlat\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Bu durum, \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n yeniden h\u0131zlanmas\u0131n\u0131n zor oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. B\u00f6ylece Yeni Zelanda Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBNZ) uzun s\u00fcre \u201cs\u0131k\u0131\u201d politika s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi i\u00e7in gerek\u00e7e azal\u0131yor. Burada \u201cs\u0131k\u0131 politika\u201d, faizlerin y\u00fcksek tutularak talebin ve enflasyonun frenlenmesi demek. Bu nedenle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda merkez bankas\u0131ndan daha \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d bir ton beklenebilir; \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d yakla\u015f\u0131m, daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizlere daha a\u00e7\u0131k tutum anlam\u0131na gelir.<\/p>\n
%70,4 seviyesi, 2024\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fclen yakla\u015f\u0131k %72\u2019lik rekor zirvelerden belirgin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendini s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu da 2025\u2019teki s\u0131k\u0131 i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n geride kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 teyit ediyor. Son verinin, i\u015fsizli\u011fin %4,5\u2019e y\u00fckselmesiyle birlikte, piyasada \u201cgev\u015feme\u201d olu\u015ftu\u011funa i\u015faret etti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Buradaki \u201cgev\u015feme\u201d, i\u015fverenlerin eleman bulmas\u0131n\u0131n kolayla\u015fmas\u0131 ve \u00fccret pazarl\u0131k g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn zay\u0131flamas\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelir. Bu e\u011filim, faiz beklentileri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli.<\/p>\n
Piyasan\u0131n, y\u0131l bitmeden RBNZ\u2019nin faiz indirimi ihtimalini yeterince fiyatlamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcndeyiz. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, k\u0131sa vadeli faizlerin d\u00fc\u015fmesinden fayda sa\u011flayan i\u015flemleri de\u011ferlendirebilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin \u201c2 y\u0131ll\u0131k swapta sabit faiz almak\u201d (receiving fixed), sabit faiz al\u0131p de\u011fi\u015fken faiz \u00f6deyerek faizler d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen bir pozisyondur. Resmi Nakit Oran\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (OCR) \u015fu anki %5,50 seviyesinin 3\u00c7\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirgin bi\u00e7imde artt\u0131. OCR, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n bankac\u0131l\u0131k sistemi i\u00e7in belirledi\u011fi ana politika faizidir.<\/p>\n
Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak Yeni Zelanda dolar\u0131n\u0131n bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor. RBNZ\u2019nin daha g\u00fcvercin olmas\u0131, di\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankalar\u0131 temkinli kal\u0131rken, para birimi i\u00e7in olumsuz bir tablo yarat\u0131r. NZD\/USD paritesinde 3 ay vadeli \u201cput\u201d opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131 f\u0131rsat olu\u015fturabilir. \u201cPut opsiyonu\u201d, belirli bir vadede fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen opsiyon t\u00fcr\u00fcd\u00fcr; vade ise s\u00f6zle\u015fmenin biti\u015f tarihidir. Bu \u015fekilde \u00f6nemli destek seviyelerinin alt\u0131na olas\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmeye kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon al\u0131nabilir.<\/p>\n
S\u00fcrpriz veri: Yeni Zelanda i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne kat\u0131l\u0131m 1\u00c7\u2019te %70,4\u2019te kald\u0131 (beklenti %70,5). So\u011fuma sinyali RBNZ\u2019nin g\u00fcvercinle\u015fme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131rken, faiz indirimi ve NZD\u2019de bask\u0131 beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46230","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46230","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46230"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46230\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46230"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46230"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46230"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}