Yeni Zelanda\u2019n\u0131n \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc Maliyet Endeksi (Labour Cost Index \u2013 \u00fccret ve i\u015fverenin \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan i\u00e7in katland\u0131\u011f\u0131 toplam maliyetleri \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) ilk \u00e7eyrekte y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %2 artt\u0131. Bu oran, piyasadaki %2 beklentisiyle ayn\u0131.<\/p>\n
Veri, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc maliyetlerinin beklenen h\u0131zda y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. A\u00e7\u0131klamada ba\u015fka ayr\u0131nt\u0131 payla\u015f\u0131lmad\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u0130lk \u00e7eyrekte \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc Maliyet Endeksi\u2019nin beklendi\u011fi gibi %2 gelmesi, \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n belirgin \u015fekilde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011funu do\u011fruluyor. Bu tablo, 2024\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fclen %4\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerindeki sert \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131ndan olduk\u00e7a farkl\u0131. O d\u00f6nemde \u00fccretler h\u0131zla artarken enflasyon da (fiyat art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131) y\u00fcksek kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Verinin beklentiyi a\u015fmamas\u0131, piyasada \u201cenflasyonla m\u00fccadele b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde bitti\u201d g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Bu rapor, Yeni Zelanda Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBNZ) y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde faiz indirimlerine ba\u015flamas\u0131 ihtimalini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Politika faizi (Official Cash Rate \u2013 bankan\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli faiz i\u00e7in belirledi\u011fi temel oran) \u015fu anda %5,50 seviyesinde. \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 so\u011furken (i\u015fe al\u0131mlar\u0131n yava\u015flamas\u0131 ve \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131), bankan\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131 (faizleri y\u00fcksek tutarak ekonomiyi yava\u015flatma yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131) s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi i\u00e7in bir gerek\u00e7e daha azal\u0131yor. Piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131, kas\u0131ma kadar en az bir faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %70\u2019in \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6viz i\u015flemi yapanlar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu durum Yeni Zelanda dolar\u0131nda (NZD) a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc beklentiyi g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Faizlerin d\u00fc\u015fme ihtimali netle\u015ftik\u00e7e, NZD\u2019nin getirisi (faiz avantaj\u0131) daha dayan\u0131kl\u0131 merkez bankas\u0131 duru\u015funa sahip para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 zay\u0131flayabilir. Biz, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte vadesi dolan NZD\/USD sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n (belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) ge\u00e7en y\u0131l g\u00f6r\u00fclen 0,5800 seviyesine do\u011fru olas\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmeye kar\u015f\u0131 konum almak i\u00e7in etkili oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Veri tam beklentiye uydu\u011fu i\u00e7in, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda NZD\u2019de beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (implied volatility \u2013 opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan piyasan\u0131n gelecekteki dalgalanma beklentisi) d\u00fc\u015fmesi beklenebilir. Bu \u00f6nemli veri riskinin ortadan kalkmas\u0131, piyasadaki belirsizli\u011fi azalt\u0131yor. Bu da NZD\u2019de opsiyon strangle (ayn\u0131 vadede biri al\u0131m\/call di\u011feri sat\u0131m\/put iki opsiyonla, kurun belirli bir aral\u0131kta kalaca\u011f\u0131na oynanan strateji) satarak, bir sonraki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc tetikleyiciye kadar kurun bant i\u00e7inde hareket edece\u011fine pozisyon alma f\u0131rsat\u0131 yaratabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Yeni Zelanda i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc maliyeti s\u00fcrpriz yapmad\u0131: LCI Q1 y\u0131ll\u0131k %2 ile beklentiye paralel. \u00dccret bask\u0131s\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131; RBNZ\u2019nin %5,50\u2019den faiz indirimi olas\u0131, NZD\u2019de a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 risk.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46227","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46227","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46227"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46227\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46227"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46227"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46227"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}