AUD\/USD Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc %0,25 y\u00fckselerek 0,7185 civar\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Avrupa seans\u0131nda 0,7150 yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki destek seviyesini korudu. Son i\u015flemler dar bir bantta kald\u0131; k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck mumlar, Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (RBA) karar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan y\u00f6n\u00fcn netle\u015fmedi\u011fine i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
RBA Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc politika faizini (cash rate: Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli ana faiz oran\u0131) 25 baz puan (0,25 puan) art\u0131rarak %4,10\u2019dan %4,35\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. A\u00e7\u0131klamada kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131, \u00f6zel talepte daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve kapasite bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n yeniden artmas\u0131 vurguland\u0131. Ayr\u0131ca, bundan sonraki ad\u0131mlar\u0131n veriye ba\u011fl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131 belirtildi.<\/p>\n
Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f ticaret verileri Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. \u00c7in\u2019in d\u0131\u015f ticaret rakamlar\u0131 ise hafta sonu gelecek. Bu veriler, d\u0131\u015f talebin (yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 talebin) seyrini g\u00f6stermesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan s\u0131radaki \u00f6nemli g\u00f6stergeler.<\/p>\n
ABD taraf\u0131nda, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kapanmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc aya girmesi ve g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerden ate\u015fkes takviminin \u00e7\u0131kmamas\u0131 nedeniyle petrol fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fcksek kald\u0131. ISM Hizmet PMI (Sat\u0131n Alma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi: 50\u2019nin \u00fczeri b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye i\u015faret eden anket bazl\u0131 g\u00f6sterge) 53,6 oldu. JOLTS a\u00e7\u0131k i\u015f say\u0131s\u0131 (i\u015fverenlerin doldurmak istedi\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131k pozisyonlar) 6,87 milyon olarak a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar ayr\u0131ca Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam verisini (Nonfarm Payrolls: tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerde ayl\u0131k istihdam de\u011fi\u015fimi) bekliyor. Beklenti 60 bin, \u00f6nceki veri 178 bindi. 15 dakikal\u0131k grafikte AUD\/USD 0,7184 seviyesinde; g\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131 olan 0,7169\u2019un \u00fczerinde. Stokastik RSI (a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\/a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m b\u00f6lgelerini g\u00f6stermeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan teknik g\u00f6sterge) 9,49 seviyesinde.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcnl\u00fck grafikte AUD\/USD 0,7184\u2019te; 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n (\u00dcssel Hareketli Ortalama: son fiyatlara daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k veren ortalama) 0,7066 ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n 0,6823 \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. G\u00fcnl\u00fck Stokastik RSI 50,8 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131.<\/p>\n
2025 sonundaki tabloya bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, RBA\u2019n\u0131n politika faizini %4,35\u2019e y\u00fckseltmesi AUD\/USD i\u00e7in olumlu bir hava olu\u015fturmu\u015ftu. Parite 0,7185 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor, \u00f6nemli hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kal\u0131yordu; bu da altta yatan y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimine i\u015faret ediyordu. Bu d\u00f6nemde yeni verilerle y\u00f6n\u00fcn teyidi beklendi\u011fi i\u00e7in karars\u0131z bir g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fc vard\u0131.<\/p>\n
O tarihten sonra Avustralya ile ABD aras\u0131ndaki para politikas\u0131 fark\u0131 daha belirginle\u015fti ve pariteyi yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Avustralya\u2019da enflasyon inat\u00e7\u0131 seyretti; 2026 1. \u00e7eyrek T\u00dcFE (CPI: T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi) %3,8 ile RBA\u2019n\u0131n hedef band\u0131n\u0131n belirgin \u00fczerinde geldi. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k RBA iki kez daha faiz art\u0131rd\u0131 ve politika faizi %4,85\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131 kald\u0131; i\u015fsizlik %4,1 seviyesinde.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131n ABD dolar\u0131 zay\u0131flad\u0131; ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir faiz indirim s\u00fcrecine ba\u015flad\u0131. Bu ad\u0131m, 2025 sonundaki zay\u0131f istihdam verilerinin i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklentiyle uyumluydu. ABD\u2019de enflasyon daha net geriledi; Nisan 2026 i\u00e7in son okuma %2,5 oldu. Bu, Fed\u2019e para politikas\u0131n\u0131 gev\u015fetmek i\u00e7in alan verdi. Avustralya dolar\u0131 lehine b\u00fcy\u00fcyen faiz fark\u0131, paritedeki g\u00fcc\u00fcn ana itici unsuru oldu.<\/p>\n
Bu kal\u0131c\u0131 e\u011filim dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda riski s\u0131n\u0131rlarken yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyeli korumak i\u00e7in opsiyonlar\u0131 (belirli bir tarihe kadar, belirli bir fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. AUD\/USD al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisiyle al\u0131nan opsiyon) almak veya \u201cbull call spread\u201d (iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla call al\u0131p-sat\u0131larak maliyetin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015f stratejisi) uygulamak, politika fark\u0131 devam ederse ek y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalanmak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131labilir. Benzer bir durum 2009-2011 d\u00f6neminde de g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; RBA\u2019n\u0131n daha s\u0131k\u0131 (\u015fahin) duru\u015fu ve Fed\u2019in daha gev\u015fek (g\u00fcvercin) duru\u015fu AUD\/USD\u2019yi tarihi zirvelere ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu, makro e\u011filimlerin ne kadar etkili olabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Yak\u0131n vadede Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n bir sonraki ayl\u0131k enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi ile ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam raporu yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli. Beklenenden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir Avustralya enflasyonu veya \u00e7ok g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ABD istihdam verisi mevcut piyasa beklentisini zorlayabilir. Bu nedenle, bu \u00f6nemli veri a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n sonras\u0131na ta\u015fan vadelerle (expiry: opsiyonun vade sonu) i\u015flem kurgulamak, olas\u0131 oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6netmek a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Kritik e\u015fikte AUD\/USD 0,7185\u2019e t\u0131rmand\u0131; RBA faizi %4,35\u2019e y\u00fckseltti. Piyasa karars\u0131z. G\u00f6zler Avustralya-\u00c7in ticaret verileri ve ABD tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam\u0131nda; petrol ve faiz fark\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc belirleyecek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46221","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46221","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46221"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46221\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46221"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46221"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46221"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}