Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da yeniden t\u0131rmanan gerilim ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na ili\u015fkin endi\u015felerle petrol fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fckselirken Asya para birimleri zay\u0131flad\u0131. Haberlerde \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n BAE\u2019ye f\u00fcze ve insans\u0131z hava arac\u0131 (drone: uzaktan kontrol edilen hava arac\u0131) sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 ile bo\u011faz yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki olaylar aktar\u0131l\u0131rken, ate\u015fkesin kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair kayg\u0131lar artt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f, enerji ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 \u00fclkelerde maliyetleri y\u00fckselterek enflasyon (genel fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131) riskini art\u0131rabilir. Bu hareket, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi, ABD Hazine tahvili getirilerinin (faiz) y\u00fckselmesi ve risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme iste\u011fi) zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla ayn\u0131 d\u00f6neme denk geldi; bu da Asya d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131layabilir.<\/p>\n
Filipin pesosu (PHP), Hindistan rupisi (INR) ve Tayland baht\u0131n\u0131n (THB) petrol hareketine daha a\u00e7\u0131k oldu\u011fu belirtildi. Singapur dolar\u0131 (SGD) benzer para birimlerine g\u00f6re daha dayan\u0131kl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclse de, yeniden y\u00fckselen petrol ve ABD dolar\u0131 bask\u0131s\u0131na a\u00e7\u0131k olmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
Notta, nisan sonu\u2013may\u0131s ba\u015f\u0131nda Asya para birimlerinde g\u00f6r\u00fclen toparlanman\u0131n k\u0131sa s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ifade edildi.<\/p>\n
Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki s\u0131\u00e7rama \u015fu anda en kritik unsur. Brent petrol bu hafta varil ba\u015f\u0131na 98 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bunun temel nedeni, k\u00fcresel enerji arz\u0131 i\u00e7in kritik bir ge\u00e7i\u015f noktas\u0131 olan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresinde bildirilen yeni \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar. Piyasa tedirgin; bu ani \u015fok k\u0131sa vadeli i\u015flem oda\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirliyor.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, enerji ithalat\u0131na b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 Asya ekonomileri i\u00e7in olumsuz bir zemin olu\u015fturuyor. ABD dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken risk i\u015ftah\u0131 azal\u0131yor, b\u00f6lgede enflasyon endi\u015feleri art\u0131yor. \u00d6rne\u011fin Hindistan\u2019da son enflasyon verisi %4,8 iken, enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki bu art\u0131\u015f enflasyonu yeniden %6\u2019ya yakla\u015ft\u0131rabilir ve merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131 (para politikas\u0131n\u0131 belirleyen kurum) faiz konusunda daha s\u0131k\u0131 bir duru\u015fa itebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu r\u00fczg\u00e2rlar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda, petrol fiyatlar\u0131na daha duyarl\u0131 para birimlerine odaklanmak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor: Filipin pesosu, Hindistan rupisi ve Tayland baht\u0131. USD\/PHP paritesi (iki para biriminin birbirine kar\u015f\u0131 fiyat\u0131) 59,00 seviyesini test ediyor. Daha fazla zay\u0131flamadan faydalanmay\u0131 hedefleyen stratejiler, \u00f6rne\u011fin USD\/INR i\u00e7in al\u0131m opsiyonu (call option: belirli bir fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) almak, cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Petrol y\u00fcksek kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece bu para birimleri \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 s\u00fcrebilir.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Singapur dolar\u0131 daha dayan\u0131kl\u0131. USD\/SGD 1,355 civar\u0131nda g\u00f6rece yatay seyrediyor. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc temelleri (ekonomik ve finansal sa\u011flaml\u0131k g\u00f6stergeleri) b\u00f6lgesel zay\u0131flamaya kar\u015f\u0131 dengeleyici bir unsur olabilir. Bu g\u00f6rece g\u00fc\u00e7, onu \u201ca\u00e7\u0131\u011fa sat\u0131\u015f\u201d (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen pozisyon) i\u00e7in daha az cazip k\u0131larken, b\u00f6lgesel performans i\u00e7in bir referans olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu sert hareket, 2024 sonundaki dalgalanmay\u0131 (volatilite: fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert de\u011fi\u015fmesi) hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Bu da \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda d\u00f6viz opsiyonlar\u0131nda z\u0131mni volatilitenin (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyat\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen oynakl\u0131k) artabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu nedenle opsiyon fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlemek \u00f6nemli; kur dalgalanmalar\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesine y\u00f6nelik pozisyon almak k\u00e2rl\u0131 olabilir. Piyasa dinamikleri (fiyata y\u00f6n veren ko\u015fullar) belirgin bi\u00e7imde de\u011fi\u015fmi\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz pani\u011fi piyasalar\u0131 sarst\u0131: Brent 98 dolar\u0131 a\u015f\u0131nca Asya FX zay\u0131flad\u0131. Dolar ve ABD tahvil faizleri y\u00fckselirken risk i\u015ftah\u0131 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; PHP, INR, THB bask\u0131da, SGD g\u00f6rece diren\u00e7te. Opsiyon volatilitesi artabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46212","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46212","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46212"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46212\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46212"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46212"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46212"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}