Euro Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda y\u00fckseldi. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 gerileme, ABD Hazine tahvili faizlerini (devlet tahvillerinin getirisi) a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti. EUR\/USD g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde 1,1676 ile dip g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 1,1701 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Ancak Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n yeniden alevlenmesiyle risk i\u015ftah\u0131 (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme iste\u011fi) zay\u0131f kald\u0131 ve EUR\/USD\u2019de y\u00fckseli\u015f s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu. ABD Dolar Endeksi 98,40 civar\u0131nda, g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,07 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fteydi.<\/p>\n
Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc K\u00f6rfez\u2019deki yeni sald\u0131r\u0131lar, ate\u015fkesin ne kadar s\u00fcrece\u011fine dair soru i\u015faretlerini art\u0131rd\u0131. ABD Savunma Bakan\u0131 Pete Hegseth, \u0130ran ile ate\u015fkesin \u201cbitmedi\u011fini\u201d s\u00f6yledi ve son gerilimin ate\u015fkesi bozup bozmayaca\u011f\u0131na Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n karar verece\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n
Bu a\u00e7\u0131klamalar, yak\u0131n vadede sava\u015f\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi (ani t\u0131rmanma) riskini bir miktar azaltt\u0131 ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n gerilemesine yard\u0131mc\u0131 oldu. WTI ham petrol (ABD tipi ham petrol g\u00f6stergesi) yakla\u015f\u0131k %3 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Buna ra\u011fmen petrol fiyatlar\u0131 genel olarak y\u00fcksek seviyede kald\u0131. Bu durum enflasyon riskini (fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 olmas\u0131) g\u00fcndemde tutuyor ve faiz beklentilerini etkiliyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar bu y\u0131l Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan (ECB) en az iki faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yordu. Ancak Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nin enerji \u015foklar\u0131na (enerji fiyatlar\u0131nda ani s\u0131\u00e7rama) a\u00e7\u0131k olmas\u0131 nedeniyle belirsizlik s\u00fcr\u00fcyordu. ECB \u00fcyesi Fran\u00e7ois Villeroy de Galhau, hen\u00fcz \u201cfaiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in yeterli i\u015faret\u201d g\u00f6rmedi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Bununla birlikte, ikinci tur etkiler (ilk fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fccretlere ve di\u011fer fiyatlara yay\u0131lmas\u0131) olu\u015fursa faizlerin y\u00fckselebilece\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n
ABD taraf\u0131nda FedWatch, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde faizi sabit tutma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi. Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimali ise bir hafta \u00f6nce neredeyse s\u0131f\u0131rken yakla\u015f\u0131k %27\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. JOLTS a\u00e7\u0131k i\u015f say\u0131s\u0131 (ABD\u2019de ilan edilmi\u015f a\u00e7\u0131k pozisyon say\u0131s\u0131) martta 6,922 milyondan 6,866 milyona geriledi. ISM Hizmetler PMI (hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi \u00f6l\u00e7en anket endeksi) nisanda 54\u2019ten 53,6\u2019ya d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n
EUR\/USD\u2019nin 1,0850 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu, 2025\u2019te jeopolitik gerilim d\u00f6nemlerinde hat\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z 1,1700 seviyelerinden belirgin \u015fekilde farkl\u0131. O d\u00f6nemde petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki ge\u00e7ici geri \u00e7ekilme piyasaya k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli rahatlama sa\u011flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bug\u00fcn ise dolar\u0131n g\u00fcc\u00fc daha kal\u0131c\u0131; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc faiz avantaj\u0131 daha net.<\/p>\n
WTI ham petrolde fiyatlar varil ba\u015f\u0131na 85 dolar civar\u0131nda kal\u0131c\u0131 seyrediyor. Bu da Atlantik\u2019in iki yakas\u0131nda enflasyonu \u201cyap\u0131\u015fkan\u201d (kolay d\u00fc\u015fmeyen ve kal\u0131c\u0131) tutuyor. Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde nisan ay\u0131na ait uyumla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi (HICP: \u00fclkeler aras\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131labilir enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) enflasyonun %2,6 ile inat\u00e7\u0131 \u015fekilde ECB hedefinin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Bu, \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d ortam\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor ve euronun y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle ECB\u2019nin ana mevduat faizini (bankalar\u0131n ECB\u2019de tuttuklar\u0131 paraya uygulanan politika faizi) yaz boyunca %3,75\u2019te korumas\u0131 bekleniyor; bu beklenti EURIBOR vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda (Euro B\u00f6lgesi k\u0131sa vadeli faiz beklentisini yans\u0131tan t\u00fcrev s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. 2025\u2019te piyasa iki faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 belirsizlikle fiyatlarken, \u015fimdi opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 (belirli bir fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerle i\u015flem yapanlar) faiz indiriminin zaman\u0131na odaklan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de tablo benzer ama daha belirgin. Son T\u00dcFE (CPI: t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi) verisi enflasyonu %3,1 g\u00f6steriyor. Fed hedef faizi %4,50\u2019de tutuyor. Bu da \u00f6nemli bir getiri avantaj\u0131 (tahvil faizleri \u00fczerinden olu\u015fan \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fck) yaratarak sermayeyi dolara \u00e7ekmeye devam ediyor. Bu faiz fark\u0131, EUR\/USD\u2019de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir y\u00fckseli\u015fin \u00f6n\u00fcndeki temel engel.<\/p>\n
Bu ko\u015fullarda paritenin bant i\u00e7inde (belirli bir aral\u0131kta) dalgalanmas\u0131 ve oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131n) y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131 beklenir; bu da opsiyon stratejilerini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131r. VSTOXX (Euro B\u00f6lgesi hisse senedi oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks) son d\u00f6nemde 18\u2019e y\u00fckseldi; bu da yakla\u015fan enflasyon verilerine dair tedirginli\u011fin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda a\u00e7\u0131klanacak kritik enflasyon ve istihdam verileri sonras\u0131nda her iki y\u00f6ne sert hareketlerden yararlanmak i\u00e7in straddle (ayn\u0131 vadede e\u015f zamanl\u0131 al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu) veya strangle (farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131yla al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu) almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131larken euro dolara kar\u015f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 toparland\u0131: EUR\/USD 1,1676\u2019dan 1,1701\u2019e. Petrol d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc tahvil faizlerini \u00e7ekti; ancak kal\u0131c\u0131 faiz fark\u0131 dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc tutuyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46211","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46211","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46211"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46211\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46211"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46211"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46211"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}