Avrupa do\u011fal gaz\u0131 i\u00e7in g\u00f6sterge kabul edilen TTF, Basra K\u00f6rfezi\u2019nde yeniden t\u0131rmanan gerilimlerin ard\u0131ndan y\u00fckseldi ve nisan ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. (TTF: Hollanda merkezli, Avrupa\u2019da gaz fiyatlamas\u0131nda referans al\u0131nan sanal ticaret noktas\u0131.) TTF, g\u00fcn\u00fc %5,7 art\u0131\u015fla tamamlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
AB\u2019nin nisan ay\u0131ndaki LNG ithalat\u0131 marttaki rekor seviyelerden geriledi, ancak LNG\u2019nin \u015febekeye verme miktar\u0131 mevsim normallerinin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. (LNG: S\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f do\u011fal gaz; \u015febekeye verme: terminallerden boru hatt\u0131 sistemine verilen gaz miktar\u0131.) Bu durum AB gaz depolar\u0131n\u0131n doluluk oran\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131; depolar yakla\u015f\u0131k %34 seviyesine yakla\u015f\u0131rken 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalama bu d\u00f6nemde neredeyse %46. (Gaz depolar\u0131: arz g\u00fcvenli\u011fi i\u00e7in yer alt\u0131 depolama tesisleri.)<\/p>\n
Rapora g\u00f6re Avrupa gaz\u0131 ve Asya LNG piyasalar\u0131, Basra K\u00f6rfezi kaynakl\u0131 arz kesintisi riskini oldu\u011fundan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatl\u0131yor. Ayr\u0131ca k\u00fcresel piyasada, b\u00f6lgeden gelebilecek LNG kayb\u0131n\u0131 telafi edecek se\u00e7eneklerin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011fu belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
Raporda, piyasan\u0131n yeniden dengeye gelmesinin b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla daha y\u00fcksek fiyatlar\u0131n talebi azaltmas\u0131yla m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olaca\u011f\u0131 ifade ediliyor. (Talep azalt\u0131m\u0131: Fiyat y\u00fckselince sanayi ve elektrik \u00fcretiminde t\u00fcketimin k\u0131s\u0131lmas\u0131.)<\/p>\n
Avrupa gaz fiyatlar\u0131 nisan ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131karken, en yak\u0131n vadeli TTF vadeli i\u015flemleri \u20ac40\/MWh seviyesinin \u00fczerine ge\u00e7ti. (Vadeli i\u015flem: Belirli bir tarihte teslim edilmek \u00fczere bug\u00fcnden fiyat\u0131 sabitlenen s\u00f6zle\u015fme; MWh: Enerji birimi.) Ancak piyasa, Basra K\u00f6rfezi\u2019ndeki yeni gerilimlerin yaratabilece\u011fi ciddi arz riskini tam yans\u0131tm\u0131yor; mevcut fiyat olas\u0131 kesintileri yeterince i\u00e7ermiyor.<\/p>\n
Depolama seviyeleri yakla\u015f\u0131k %34 ile k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor. Bu oran, y\u0131l\u0131n bu d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re yakla\u015f\u0131k %46 olan be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalaman\u0131n belirgin \u015fekilde alt\u0131nda. Bu a\u00e7\u0131k, arz \u015foklar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 al\u0131\u015f\u0131lan \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde bir \u201ctampon\u201d b\u0131rakm\u0131yor. (Tampon: Kesinti oldu\u011funda k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli ihtiyac\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131layacak g\u00fcvenlik pay\u0131.)<\/p>\n
K\u00fcresel piyasada arz s\u0131k\u0131 ve 2025\u2019teki tedarik de\u011fi\u015fimleri sonras\u0131 LNG\u2019ye ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n artmas\u0131, Katar gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00fcreticilere y\u00f6nelik her tehdidi kritik hale getiriyor. (Arz s\u0131k\u0131: Piyasada fazla kaynak\/vak\u0131f kapasite az.) 2025\u2019teki fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131nda, stoklar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fckken k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck kesintilerin bile sert fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. (Stok: Depodaki gaz; dalgalanma: h\u0131zl\u0131 fiyat oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131.)<\/p>\n
Basra K\u00f6rfezi\u2019nden kaybedilecek hacimleri kar\u015f\u0131layacak k\u00fcresel gaz sisteminde \u00e7ok az yedek kapasite bulunuyor. (Yedek kapasite: H\u0131zla devreye al\u0131nabilecek ek \u00fcretim\/tedarik imk\u00e2n\u0131.) Bu nedenle piyasay\u0131 dengelemenin ana yolu talebin fiyat etkisiyle d\u00fc\u015fmesi olabilir. Bunun ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi i\u00e7in fiyatlar\u0131n, sanayi ve elektrik \u00fcretiminde t\u00fcketimi azaltacak kadar daha da y\u00fckselmesi gerekecek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
K\u00f6rfez gerilimi TTF\u2019yi s\u0131\u00e7ratt\u0131: %5,7 art\u0131\u015fla \u20ac40\/MWh \u00fcst\u00fc. AB LNG ithalat\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fse de depolar %34\u2019te, ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131nda. Piyasa arz kesintisi riskini fiyatlam\u0131yor; denge talep k\u0131s\u0131m\u0131yla sa\u011flanabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46205","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46205","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46205"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46205\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46205"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46205"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46205"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}