Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD), Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.500 dolar civar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen be\u015f haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesinin ard\u0131ndan Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc 4.580 dolar d\u00fczeyine y\u00fckseldi. Ancak y\u00fckseli\u015f s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131. Piyasada faizlerin daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu beklenti, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilim ve enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 enflasyon (fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131) endi\u015feleriyle ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131.<\/p>\n
Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc gelen haberlerde K\u00f6rfez b\u00f6lgesinde yeni sald\u0131r\u0131lar oldu\u011fu yaz\u0131ld\u0131. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresinde ABD-\u0130ran ate\u015fkesi (silahl\u0131 \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n ge\u00e7ici olarak durmas\u0131) bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n BAE\u2019de (Birle\u015fik Arap Emirlikleri) petrol altyap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 hedef ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 bildirildi. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump da ABD g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin bo\u011faz yak\u0131nlar\u0131nda yedi k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck \u0130ran botunu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Enerji kaynakl\u0131 riskler enflasyon endi\u015felerini art\u0131rd\u0131. Enflasyon, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 Fed\u2019in y\u00fczde 2 hedefinin \u00fczerinde kalmaya devam ediyor. Daha y\u00fcksek faiz oranlar\u0131 alt\u0131n i\u00e7in olumsuz; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc alt\u0131n faiz getirisi (mevduat veya tahvil gibi d\u00fczenli getiri) sa\u011flamaz.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar, faiz indirimlerinin daha ge\u00e7 gelece\u011fi ve faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalinin y\u00fckseldi\u011fi bir fiyatlamaya kayd\u0131. CME FedWatch arac\u0131 (Fed toplant\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in piyasadaki faiz olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 hesaplayan g\u00f6sterge), Aral\u0131k toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 27\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi; bir hafta \u00f6nce bu oran s\u0131f\u0131ra yak\u0131nd\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD JOLTS A\u00e7\u0131k \u0130\u015f Say\u0131s\u0131 (i\u015fverenlerin doldurmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k pozisyon say\u0131s\u0131) Mart\u2019ta 6,866 milyona geriledi (\u015eubat: 6,922 milyon); beklenti 6,83 milyondu. ISM Hizmet PMI (hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde faaliyet ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks) Nisan\u2019da 54,0\u2019tan 53,6\u2019ya indi; beklenti 53,7 idi.<\/p>\n
Grafiklerde XAU\/USD, 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ve 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019lar\u0131n (basit hareketli ortalama: belirli g\u00fcn say\u0131s\u0131ndaki fiyatlar\u0131n ortalamas\u0131yla trendi g\u00f6steren teknik g\u00f6sterge) alt\u0131nda, ancak 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. Destek 4.500 dolar civar\u0131nda; 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA ise 4.293 dolar yak\u0131n\u0131nda. Diren\u00e7 seviyeleri 4.766, 4.808 ve 5.000 dolar.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in \u015fahin (faizlerin y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ima eden) duru\u015f sinyali vermesiyle alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde k\u0131sa vadede a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. En basit yakla\u015f\u0131m, 4.500 dolar deste\u011finin alt\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 put opsiyonu (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011fer kazanan opsiyon) almak olabilir. B\u00f6ylece faiz beklentileriyle gelebilecek ek d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe pozisyon al\u0131n\u0131rken azami zarar net \u015fekilde s\u0131n\u0131rlan\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda gerilimin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131, fiyat\u0131n aniden s\u0131\u00e7rama ihtimalini art\u0131r\u0131yor; bu da do\u011frudan k\u0131sa pozisyonu (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne oynayan i\u015flem) riskli hale getiriyor. Alt\u0131n Volatilite Endeksi (GVZ: alt\u0131n fiyat\u0131nda beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6steren endeks) son bir haftada y\u00fczde 15\u2019in \u00fczerinde y\u00fckseldi; bu da belirsizli\u011fin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu ortam, uzun strangle (fiyat\u0131n iki y\u00f6ne de sert hareket etmesinden yararlanmak i\u00e7in, paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda bir al\u0131m\/call ve paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda bir sat\u0131m\/put opsiyonu birlikte almak) stratejisine uygun.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo 2023\u2019teki d\u00f6neme benziyor: Kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon Fed\u2019i \u015fahin \u00e7izgide tutmu\u015f, alt\u0131n\u0131n cazibesini s\u0131n\u0131rlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u00c7ekirdek PCE enflasyonu (Fed\u2019in yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fi, g\u0131da ve enerji gibi oynak kalemleri d\u0131\u015far\u0131da b\u0131rakan enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 3,1 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6stererek y\u00fczde 2 hedefinin belirgin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. Bu veri, piyasadaki \u201cFed sert kalacak\u201d endi\u015fesini destekliyor. Bu zemin, alt\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015flerin sat\u0131\u015fla kar\u015f\u0131lanabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
VT Markets canl\u0131 hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Alt\u0131n 4.500 dipten 4.580\u2019e toparland\u0131 ancak Fed\u2019in \u201cfaizler uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek\u201d fiyatlamas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz gerilimi enflasyon kayg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcrken volatilite art\u0131yor; 4.500 destek, 4.766-5.000 diren\u00e7.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46203","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46203","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46203"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46203\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46203"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46203"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46203"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}