Rabobank\u2019tan Jane Foley, ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin (DXY) 98,479 ve 98,568 seviyelerindeki 100 ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalamalar\u0131na (fiyat\u0131n belirli g\u00fcn say\u0131s\u0131ndaki ortalamas\u0131) yak\u0131n i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6yledi. Foley\u2019ye g\u00f6re bu seviyeler diren\u00e7 (fiyat\u0131n y\u00fckselmekte zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 b\u00f6lge) g\u00f6revi g\u00f6r\u00fcyor ve Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da artan gerilime ra\u011fmen piyasalar \u201cuzun\u201d ABD dolar\u0131 pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (dolar y\u00fckselir beklentisiyle al\u0131nan pozisyon) art\u0131rmakta temkinli.<\/p>\n
Foley, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda dolar\u0131n y\u00fckselme riski oldu\u011funu, ancak son kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n da h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde geri verilebilece\u011fini belirtti. Dolar\u0131n \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (risk artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n y\u00f6neldi\u011fi varl\u0131k) rol\u00fcn\u00fc, y\u00fcksek likiditeye (kolay al\u0131n\u0131p sat\u0131labilme, i\u015flem derinli\u011fi) ve k\u00fcresel i\u015flemlerde yayg\u0131n kullan\u0131m\u0131na ba\u011flad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Rabobank, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) bu y\u0131l faiz indirimlerine devam etmesini bekliyor. Banka, bunun 3 ila 6 ayl\u0131k d\u00f6nemde dolar\u0131n euro kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde zay\u0131flamas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Rabobank, \u201cuzun euro\u201d pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n (euronun y\u00fckselece\u011fi beklentisi) ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki seviyelere d\u00f6nmesini beklemedi\u011fini belirtti. Ayr\u0131ca y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda EUR\/USD\u2019de (euro\/dolar paritesi) olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015flerin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir inanca dayanmayabilece\u011fini ifade etti.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) i\u015flemi yapanlar i\u00e7in bu, dolar \u00fczerinde \u201cal\u0131m opsiyonu\u201d (call; belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) almak ya da EUR\/USD gibi paritelerde \u201csat\u0131m opsiyonu\u201d (put; belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) almak gibi stratejilerin h\u00e2l\u00e2 uygulanabilir oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Fed\u2019in faizde \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek\u201d duru\u015fu (faizlerin uzun s\u00fcre d\u00fc\u015fmeyebilece\u011fi mesaj\u0131) vermesiyle, d\u00f6viz opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility; opsiyon fiyat\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) 3 ayl\u0131k s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerde yakla\u015f\u0131k %7,5\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Bu ortam, dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131ndan veya euronun daha da zay\u0131flamas\u0131ndan fayda sa\u011flayan stratejileri destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Euroda \u201cuzun\u201d pozisyon biriktirmek i\u00e7in s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. EUR\/USD\u2019nin 1,0550 \u00fczerinde tutunmakta zorlanmas\u0131 nedeniyle y\u00fckseli\u015flerin k\u0131sa \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc kalmas\u0131 muhtemel. Bu nedenle euro cinsinden alacaklar\u0131n \u201cforward\u201d s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleriyle (ileride belirli kurdan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m anla\u015fmas\u0131) kur riskine kar\u015f\u0131 korunmas\u0131 veya EUR\/USD\u2019de \u201ck\u0131sa\u201d vadeli i\u015flem pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n (fiyat d\u00fc\u015fer beklentisi) korunmas\u0131 daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olabilir.<\/p>\n
Dolar\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman rol\u00fc, s\u00fcren ticaret anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar\u0131 ve b\u00f6lgesel istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k ortam\u0131nda \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Bu durum, ba\u015fka hi\u00e7bir para biriminin eri\u015femedi\u011fi i\u015flem derinli\u011fi ve kolay al\u0131n\u0131p sat\u0131labilirli\u011fiyle destekleniyor. Bu temel avantaj, dolar i\u00e7in bir taban (a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlayan etki) olu\u015fturuyor; Fed ileride y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015ftirse bile sert de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Dolar endeksi 100-200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalamalarda dirence tak\u0131ld\u0131: Rabobank, jeopolitik gerilime ra\u011fmen long USD i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n temkinli kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, Fed indirimleriyle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 zay\u0131flama ve opsiyon\/hedge f\u0131rsatlar\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc vurguluyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46200","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46200","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46200"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46200\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46200"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46200"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46200"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}