USD\/CAD \u00f6nceki g\u00fcn\u00fcn i\u015flem aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na yak\u0131n seyrederken, Kanada dolar\u0131 (CAD) g\u00fcn\u00fcn erken saatlerinde bir miktar g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. Daha zay\u0131f bir ABD dolar\u0131 ve artan risk i\u015ftah\u0131 (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme e\u011filimi) k\u0131sa vadede CAD i\u00e7in s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 da olsa destekleyici g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Scotiabank\u2019in USD\/CAD i\u00e7in \u201cadil de\u011fer\u201d (kurun temel g\u00f6stergelere g\u00f6re olmas\u0131 beklenen seviye) tahmini 1,3424\u2019e geriledi. Banka, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 kendi denge tahmininin 1 standart sapma (normal dalgalanma aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en istatistiksel g\u00f6sterge) \u00fczerinde seyretti\u011fini; bunun da USD\u2019de ek y\u00fckseli\u015fleri s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilece\u011fini ve spot kurda (anl\u0131k kur) hafif a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filimi koruyabilece\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n
Paritenin gece saatlerindeki tepki y\u00fckseli\u015fi 1,3625\/30 civar\u0131nda duraksad\u0131. Bu b\u00f6lge, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n Mart ay\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015finin %76,4 Fibonacci d\u00fczeltmesine (\u00f6nceki hareketin belirli oranlarla geri verilmesine dayal\u0131 teknik seviye) denk gelen ve daha \u00f6nce \u201cdestek\u201d (fiyat\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte tutunma e\u011filiminde oldu\u011fu seviye) olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclen alan \u015feklinde tan\u0131mland\u0131. Teknik g\u00f6stergeler (fiyat\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fc ve g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc izleyen \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcmler) g\u00fcn i\u00e7i, g\u00fcnl\u00fck ve haftal\u0131k \u00f6l\u00e7ekte sat\u0131c\u0131l\u0131 (bearish) g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm verdi.<\/p>\n
D\u00fczeltme deste\u011finin alt\u0131na inilmesiyle odak, 1,3525\u2019teki Mart ba\u015f\u0131 dibine olas\u0131 geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe kayd\u0131. 1,3520\u2019deki \u00f6nceki diplerin k\u00fcmelendi\u011fi b\u00f6lge ve haftal\u0131k trend deste\u011fi (uzun vadeli y\u00f6n\u00fc takip eden destek \u00e7izgisi) 1,35 civar\u0131nda potansiyel destek olarak not edildi.<\/p>\n
Yaz\u0131da, i\u00e7eri\u011fin bir yapay zek\u00e2 arac\u0131yla \u00fcretildi\u011fi ve ard\u0131ndan bir edit\u00f6r taraf\u0131ndan kontrol edildi\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n
Mevcut tabloda, USD\/CAD 1,3630 diren\u00e7 (y\u00fckseli\u015fleri s\u0131n\u0131rlayan seviye) b\u00f6lgesinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131k\u00e7a a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc beklenti s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Temel momentum (fiyat hareketinin devam g\u00fcc\u00fc) ABD dolar\u0131ndaki olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015flerin k\u0131sa \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc kalabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, son Kanada verileriyle de destekleniyor. Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanan istihdam verisi, Nisan\u2019da net 38 bin ki\u015filik art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6stererek beklentileri a\u015ft\u0131. Buna ek olarak WTI ham petrol (ABD referans ham petrol t\u00fcr\u00fc) fiyat\u0131n\u0131n 80 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131, Kanada dolar\u0131n\u0131n temel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc (makro veriler ve emtia fiyatlar\u0131 gibi unsurlara dayal\u0131 de\u011ferlendirme) destekliyor. Bu da adil de\u011fer modelinin 1,3424\u2019e do\u011fru gerilemesinin ana nedenlerinden biri olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
ABD taraf\u0131nda ise ge\u00e7en haftaki enflasyon verileri s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir so\u011fumaya i\u015faret etti. Bu durum, piyasada 2025\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde g\u00f6r\u00fclen agresif Fed (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) politika beklentilerini bir miktar t\u00f6rp\u00fcledi. \u0130ki \u00fclke aras\u0131ndaki veri s\u00fcrprizlerindeki ayr\u0131\u015fma, parite i\u00e7in a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filimi destekliyor. K\u00fcresel risk i\u015ftah\u0131 artarken ABD dolar\u0131 da genel piyasa \u00e7ap\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir destek bulmakta zorlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (dayanak varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n fiyat\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) i\u015flemcileri i\u00e7in bu tablo, Haziran vadeli 1,3500 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 USD\/CAD sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon) al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 bir strateji olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m ise ay\u0131 call spread\u2019i (bear call spread: daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan call sat\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan call alarak y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisine kar\u015f\u0131, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle prim geliri hedefleyen strateji) kurmak; 1,3630 direncinde call sat\u0131p prim (opsiyonun pe\u015fin \u00f6denen fiyat\u0131) toplarken paritenin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcz\u00fclmesini hedeflemek olabilir.<\/p>\n
Vadeli i\u015flem (futures: borsada standart s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) veya forward (tezg\u00e2h \u00fcst\u00fc, taraflar aras\u0131nda yap\u0131lan vadeli anla\u015fma) kullananlar, 1,3630 b\u00f6lgesini zarar-kes (stop-loss: zarar belirli seviyeye ula\u015f\u0131nca otomatik kapatma) i\u00e7in net bir seviye kabul ederek k\u0131sa pozisyon (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen i\u015flem) a\u00e7abilir. \u0130lk k\u00e2r-al (take profit) hedefi 1,3520 civar\u0131ndaki destek b\u00f6lgesi olur. Bu seviyenin net k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, adil de\u011fer tahminine do\u011fru daha belirgin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ihtimalini art\u0131r\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/CAD\u2019de a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc senaryo g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor: Scotiabank adil de\u011feri 1,3424\u2019e indirdi. 1,3630 alt\u0131nda sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131 s\u00fcrerken hedef 1,3520-1,35; g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc Kanada istihdam\u0131 ve petrol CAD\u2019i destekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46196","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46196","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46196"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46196\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46196"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46196"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46196"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}