ABD i\u00e7in RealClearMarkets\/TIPP Ekonomik \u0130yimserlik Endeksi may\u0131sta 42,6\u2019ya y\u00fckseldi. Bu seviye 42 olan beklentinin \u00fczerinde.<\/p>\n
Endeks 50\u2019nin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. 50 seviyesi, iyimserlik ile k\u00f6t\u00fcmserli\u011fi ay\u0131ran e\u015fik kabul edilir. May\u0131s verisi, art\u0131\u015fa ra\u011fmen alg\u0131n\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 olumsuz b\u00f6lgede oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
May\u0131s ekonomik iyimserlik endeksi 42,6 ile beklentiyi az farkla a\u015ft\u0131, ancak t\u00fcketicilerde belirgin k\u00f6t\u00fcmserli\u011fe i\u015faret ediyor. Bu, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm sinyali de\u011fil; daha \u00e7ok \u015fartlar\u0131n beklenenden h\u0131zl\u0131 bozulmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren \u201cdaha az k\u00f6t\u00fc\u201d bir veri. Bu nedenle veri, piyasadaki son d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f korkular\u0131n\u0131 bir miktar s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu veri, k\u0131sa vadeli oynakl\u0131kta (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) sat\u0131\u015f d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesini g\u00fcndeme getirebilir. VIX (S&P 500 i\u00e7in beklenen dalgalanmay\u0131 g\u00f6steren \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d) 18 civar\u0131ndayken, ana endekslerde \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d put (kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut fiyat\u0131n alt\u0131nda olan, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayan sat\u0131\u015f opsiyonu) satmak, k\u0131sa vadede sert \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f ihtimalinin daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011fu varsay\u0131m\u0131yla prim (opsiyon geliri) toplamay\u0131 hedefler. 2025 sonundaki resesyon (ekonomik daralma) endi\u015fesi ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmeyince oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fck; bu tablo daha k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekte benzer bir f\u0131rsat yaratabilir.<\/p>\n
Tek ba\u015f\u0131na bu veri, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) duru\u015funu de\u011fi\u015ftirmez. Nisan istihdam raporu i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 s\u0131k\u0131 oldu\u011funu ve 190 bin yeni istihdam yarat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Ancak veri, piyasan\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek i\u00e7in fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 sert faiz indirimlerinin olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bir miktar azalt\u0131r. Buna g\u00f6re faiz oran\u0131 t\u00fcrev (faiz hareketlerine ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) pozisyonlar\u0131, Fed\u2019in biraz daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faizde s\u0131k\u0131 kalma e\u011filimi) kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisine g\u00f6re g\u00fcncellenebilir.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en ay \u00e7ekirdek PCE enflasyonu (Fed\u2019in yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fi, g\u0131da ve enerji hari\u00e7 ki\u015fisel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 enflasyonu) %2,9\u2019da inat\u00e7\u0131 kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu duyarl\u0131l\u0131k verisiyle birlikte tablo, yava\u015f ama dayan\u0131kl\u0131 bir ekonomiyi destekliyor. B\u00f6yle bir ortam, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir y\u00f6n yerine yatay bantta (belirli aral\u0131kta) hareket eden piyasaya uygun stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131r. \u00d6rne\u011fin SPX (S&P 500 endeksi) \u00fczerinde iron condor (fiyat\u0131n belirli aral\u0131kta kalmas\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen, ayn\u0131 vadede d\u00f6rt opsiyonla kurulan s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskli strateji) gibi opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz ama temkin: ABD RealClearMarkets\/TIPP iyimserlik endeksi may\u0131sta 42,6\u2019ya \u00e7\u0131karak beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131; ancak 50 e\u015fi\u011finin alt\u0131nda. \u201cDaha az k\u00f6t\u00fc\u201d veri, sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f korkusunu azalt\u0131p opsiyon stratejilerini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46195","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46195","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46195"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46195\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46195"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46195"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46195"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}