ABD\u2019de yeni konut sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 martta ayl\u0131k bazda 682 bine y\u00fckseldi. <\/p>\n
Bu seviye, 668 binlik beklentinin \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Mart ay\u0131 yeni konut sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n 682 bin ile beklentinin \u00fczerinde gelmesi, ekonominin beklenenden daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ilerledi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Dayan\u0131kl\u0131 t\u00fcketici talebi, altta yatan g\u00fcc\u00fcn s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6sterirken ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) temkinli kalmas\u0131na neden olabilir. Bu durum, yaz aylar\u0131nda faiz indirimi ihtimalini azalt\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Son veriler de bu temkinli duru\u015fu destekliyor. Nisan ay\u0131 T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE: t\u00fcketicinin sat\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcn ve hizmetlerin fiyatlar\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fimi \u00f6l\u00e7en enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) enflasyonun %3,6 ile y\u00fcksek kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve tahminlerin \u00fczerinde oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi. Ge\u00e7en haftaki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc istihdam raporu da (tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam: tar\u0131m hari\u00e7 sekt\u00f6rlerdeki i\u015fe al\u0131m say\u0131s\u0131) 215 bin yeni istihdama i\u015faret etti. Bu tablo, Fed\u2019in faizleri sabit tutma ihtimalini belirgin bi\u00e7imde g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Bu, 2025 sonunda piyasan\u0131n faiz indirimi beklentisi ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcme k\u0131yasla \u00f6nemli bir de\u011fi\u015fim.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda, yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirimi olmayaca\u011f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik i\u015flemlerde t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde (t\u00fcrev: de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar eyl\u00fcl vadeli SOFR vadeli i\u015flemlerinde sat\u0131\u015f d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir (SOFR: ABD\u2019de gecelik teminatl\u0131 bor\u00e7lanma faiz oran\u0131) veya TLT gibi ABD Hazine tahvili ETF\u2019lerinde sat\u0131m opsiyonu alabilir (opsiyon: belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131; sat\u0131m opsiyonu fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon). \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc tahvil getirileri (getiri: tahvil faiz oran\u0131) yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket edebilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, piyasan\u0131n faiz indirimini daha ileri tarihe \u00f6telemesi senaryosuna g\u00f6re konumlan\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Bu dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131k, 2023\u2019te g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc verilerin Fed\u2019in y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015ftirmesine (pivot: para politikas\u0131nda belirgin d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131) y\u00f6nelik beklentileri s\u0131k s\u0131k bo\u015fa \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemi hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Faiz piyasalar\u0131nda dalgalanman\u0131n (volatilite: fiyat oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131) art\u0131p artmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 izliyoruz. VIX al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (VIX: piyasa beklentisine dayal\u0131 oynakl\u0131k endeksi; al\u0131m opsiyonu y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisi) Fed\u2019in bir sonraki toplant\u0131da daha \u015fahin (\u015fahin: enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131 savunan) bir ton vermesi halinde, olas\u0131 bir piyasa s\u00fcrprizine kar\u015f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir korunma arac\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n
S\u00fcrpriz konut sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 Fed\u2019i k\u00f6\u015feye s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131! ABD\u2019de yeni konut sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 martta 682 bine \u00e7\u0131karak 668 bin beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131; enflasyon ve istihdamla birlikte yaz indirimi zay\u0131fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46189","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46189","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46189"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46189\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46189"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46189"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46189"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}