Piyasalar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131nda, petrol arz\u0131 riskinin bir g\u00f6stergesi olarak H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7en gemi hareketleri yer almay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. \u0130ran ile ABD\u2019nin kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ve BAE\u2019nin f\u00fcze sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131yla hedef al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ate\u015fkesin gelece\u011fine dair belirsizlik, fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fcksek tutuyor. Bug\u00fcn ise ilave bir t\u0131rmanma bildirilmedi.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de Senato\u2019daki Cumhuriyet\u00e7iler, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n yeniden ba\u015flamas\u0131 halinde \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik yeni sald\u0131r\u0131lara izin verebilecek bir asker\u00ee yetkilendirme metni haz\u0131rl\u0131yor. Sava\u015f Yetkileri Yasas\u0131 kapsam\u0131nda (Ba\u015fkan\u2019\u0131n asker\u00ee g\u00fc\u00e7 kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n Kongre taraf\u0131ndan denetlenmesini ama\u00e7layan d\u00fczenleme), \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n yeniden ba\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131 izleyen ilk 30 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde Senato\u2019da h\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f \u015fekilde ele al\u0131nabilir.<\/p>\n
Taslak plan\u0131n kara birliklerinin kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamas\u0131 ve her t\u00fcrl\u00fc operasyon i\u00e7in net bir s\u00fcre belirlemesi bekleniyor. Bu ad\u0131m, Ba\u015fkan Trump\u2019\u0131n \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n ilk a\u015famas\u0131n\u0131n bitti\u011fine dair a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kontrol\u00fcne y\u00f6nelik gerilimin yeniden y\u00fckseldi\u011fi bir d\u00f6neme denk geliyor.<\/p>\n
Bu risklere ra\u011fmen Brent ve WTI d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Umman ve Dubai petrol g\u00f6stergeleri y\u00fckseliyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n ge\u00e7i\u015f hacimlerini yak\u0131ndan izlemesi gerekiyor; hacimler istikrar kazanm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de k\u0131r\u0131lgan. ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi\u2019nin (EIA \u2013 ABD\u2019nin resm\u00ee enerji veri kurumu) verilerine g\u00f6re, Bo\u011faz\u2019dan ge\u00e7en petrol tanker trafi\u011fi \u015fu anda g\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 19 milyon varil seviyesinde. Bu rakam 2025 \u00f6ncesi 20 milyon varilin \u00fczerindeki ortalaman\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 alt\u0131nda. Bu kal\u0131c\u0131 eksik, piyasan\u0131n b\u00f6lgeden kaynaklanan arz riskini tamamen fiyatlamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
CBOE Ham Petrol Volatilite Endeksi (OVX \u2013 petrol opsiyonlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen, fiyat oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 beklentisini g\u00f6steren endeks) \u015fu s\u0131ralar 35 civar\u0131nda. Bu seviye, ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki gerilim d\u00f6nemindeki zirvelerin alt\u0131nda olsa da uzun vadeli ortalama olan 20\u2019li seviyelerin belirgin \u00fczerinde. Bu da panik azalsa bile opsiyon maliyetlerinin h\u00e2l\u00e2 y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. (Opsiyon: Belirli bir tarihe kadar, belirli bir fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme.) Buna g\u00f6re, prim toplama ama\u00e7l\u0131 stratejiler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir; \u00f6rne\u011fin geri \u00e7ekilmelerde \u201cput\u201d sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta niteli\u011findeki s\u00f6zle\u015fmeyi satmak) veya eldeki uzun pozisyonlara kar\u015f\u0131 \u201ccovered call\u201d yazmak (eldeki varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 teminat g\u00f6stererek al\u0131m opsiyonu satmak).<\/p>\n
Brent ile Dubai petrol g\u00f6stergeleri aras\u0131ndaki fark (spread: iki fiyat aras\u0131ndaki makas) da izlenmeli. Bu makas 2025\u2019teki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma korkusu s\u0131ras\u0131nda h\u0131zla a\u00e7\u0131lm\u0131\u015f, sonras\u0131nda daralarak Orta Do\u011fu\u2019ya \u00f6zg\u00fc riskin bir miktar azald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etmi\u015fti. Ancak h\u00e2l\u00e2 tarihsel normal seviyelere d\u00f6nm\u00fc\u015f de\u011fil. Diplomatik kanallarda ilerleme g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrse, makas\u0131n daha da daralmas\u0131na oynayan pozisyonlar k\u00e2rl\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n
Siyasi risk belirsizli\u011fini koruyor; \u00f6zellikle 2025\u2019te g\u00fcndeme gelen Senato asker\u00ee yetkilendirme tasla\u011f\u0131, h\u0131zl\u0131 karar alma i\u00e7in bir \u00e7er\u00e7eve fikri ortaya koymu\u015ftu. Bu taslak yasala\u015fmam\u0131\u015f olsa da, yeni bir gerilimde s\u00fcrecin ge\u00e7mi\u015fe g\u00f6re daha h\u0131zl\u0131 t\u0131rmanabilece\u011fi alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Bu nedenle Washington veya Tahran\u2019dan gelebilecek daha sert a\u00e7\u0131klamalar (hawkish s\u00f6ylem: daha sald\u0131rgan\/sert tutum mesaj\u0131) fiyatlarda ani hareketin ana tetikleyicisi olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
G\u00f6zler H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019de: tanker trafi\u011fi g\u00fcnl\u00fck 19 milyon varilde, eski ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131nda. Ate\u015fkes belirsizli\u011fi s\u00fcrerken Brent\/WTI geriliyor, OVX 35\u2019te. Senato\u2019nun \u0130ran yetkilendirme tasla\u011f\u0131 risk primini canl\u0131 tutuyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46183","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46183","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46183"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46183\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46183"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46183"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46183"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}