USD\/JPY, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131na m\u00fcdahalesiyle (yetkililerin kuru etkilemek i\u00e7in piyasada **dolar sat\u0131p yen almas\u0131**) geriledikten sonra yeniden y\u00fckseli\u015fe ge\u00e7ti. Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) ge\u00e7en per\u015fembe **30 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde** sat\u0131\u015f yapm\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fi, sonraki iki i\u015flem g\u00fcn\u00fcnde ise daha k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli i\u015flemler ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmi\u015f olabilece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor.<\/p>\n
Takip m\u00fcdahalesi olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin olas\u0131 teyidin, BoJ\u2019un **cari hesap bakiyesi** (bankalar\u0131n BoJ nezdindeki hesaplar\u0131nda tuttu\u011fu toplam para; piyasaya verilen\/\u00e7ekilen likiditeyi g\u00f6steren veri) g\u00fcncellemesini yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 per\u015fembe gecesi Japonya\u2019da gelmesi bekleniyor. Piyasa bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n yeniden g\u00fc\u00e7 kazanmas\u0131yla bu hamlenin etkisini kaybetti\u011fi ifade ediliyor.<\/p>\n
Y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131 ve ABD tahvil faizlerindeki y\u00fckseli\u015f yenin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. BoJ\u2019un **g\u00fcvercin** duru\u015fu (faiz art\u0131rmaya isteksiz, ekonomiyi destekleyici para politikas\u0131) da yen \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY\u2019nin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda yeniden 160\u2019a do\u011fru kademeli \u015fekilde y\u00f6nelmesi bekleniyor. Farkl\u0131 bir senaryo ise K\u00f6rfez\u2019de bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinde net ilerlemeye ba\u011flan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Japonya\u2019n\u0131n d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalesinin etkisinin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Yetkililerin muhtemelen dolar satarak kuru a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmesinin ard\u0131ndan USD\/JPY\u2019deki son d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f h\u0131zla geri al\u0131n\u0131yor; bu da temel piyasa dinamiklerinin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Paritenin yeniden 172,00\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u00e7abas\u0131na ra\u011fmen temel bask\u0131lar\u0131n a\u011f\u0131r bast\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
**Faiz fark\u0131** yen i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir olumsuzluk. ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvili getirisinin (piyasan\u0131n uzun vadeli dolar faizini yans\u0131tan g\u00f6sterge) yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,85 civar\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 ve BoJ politika faizinin sadece %0,25 olmas\u0131, dolar tutmay\u0131 daha cazip hale getiriyor. Bu **getiri fark\u0131**, **carry trade** i\u015flemlerini (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli para biriminden bor\u00e7lan\u0131p y\u00fcksek faizli para birimine ge\u00e7erek faiz fark\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7 arama) destekleyerek yen sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca y\u00fcksek enerji maliyetleri Japonya\u2019n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesini zorluyor. WTI petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar civar\u0131nda kalmas\u0131, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n ithalat faturas\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fcksek tutuyor. Enerji \u00f6demeleri genellikle **dolar cinsinden** oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in piyasada d\u00fczenli yen sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 gerekiyor; bu da para birimi \u00fczerinde s\u00fcrekli a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
2024 ve 2025\u2019te de benzer bir tablo g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. 2024 ilkbahar\u0131nda rekor 9,79 trilyon yenlik m\u00fcdahaleye ra\u011fmen, temel dinamikler de\u011fi\u015fmeyince USD\/JPY daha sonra yeniden y\u00fckseli\u015fine d\u00f6nm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Mevcut durum da, m\u00fcdahalenin yaln\u0131zca ge\u00e7ici bir geri \u00e7ekilme yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 o d\u00f6nemi and\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
**T\u00fcrev** (de\u011feri d\u00f6viz kuru gibi bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal \u00fcr\u00fcn) i\u015flemleri yapanlar i\u00e7in bu t\u00fcr h\u00fck\u00fcmet kaynakl\u0131 hareketler f\u0131rsat do\u011furabilir. M\u00fcdahale sonras\u0131 sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerin ard\u0131ndan k\u0131sa vadeli USD\/JPY **call opsiyonu** (belirli tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131; y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisiyle kullan\u0131l\u0131r) almak, 175 veya daha y\u00fcksek seviyelere olas\u0131 toparlanmaya kat\u0131lmay\u0131 sa\u011flarken riski \u00f6denen **prim**le (opsiyonun pe\u015fin maliyeti) s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fe y\u00f6nelik ana risk, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) beklenmedik \u015fekilde yeniden g\u00fcvercinle\u015fmesi olur; ancak son enflasyon verileri bunun yak\u0131n vadede olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131yor. Bu nedenle yendeki olas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenme, y\u00fckseli\u015f trendine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f beklentisiyle pozisyon aramak i\u00e7in bir f\u0131rsat olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" M\u00fcdahale sonras\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f bitti mi? USD\/JPY yeniden t\u0131rman\u0131yor: BoJ\u2019un 30+ milyar $ sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 ge\u00e7ici kald\u0131. Faiz fark\u0131, carry trade ve enerji ithalat\u0131 yen\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131yor; hedef 160-172+.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46179","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46179","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46179"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46179\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46179"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46179"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46179"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}