ABD Redbook Endeksi (Y\u0131ll\u0131k) May\u0131s\u2019ta %7,8\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. \u00d6nceki veride %7,7 seviyesindeydi.<\/p>\n
Redbook endeksinin %7,8\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, t\u00fcketicinin beklenenden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu durum, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) k\u0131sa vadede faiz indirimi yapaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisini zay\u0131flat\u0131yor. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc harcamalar, enflasyonun (fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n) tahmin edilenden daha kal\u0131c\u0131 olmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir; bu da 2025\u2019in \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde g\u00f6r\u00fclen tabloya benzer. Sonu\u00e7 olarak, yak\u0131nda para politikas\u0131nda gev\u015feme (faiz indirimi) olaca\u011f\u0131na oynayan pozisyonlar\u0131 yeniden de\u011ferlendirmek gerekiyor.<\/p>\n
Bu veriyle birlikte yaz aylar\u0131nda faiz indirimi ihtimalinin belirgin \u015fekilde azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu, birka\u00e7 hafta \u00f6nceki piyasa beklentisinin tersine bir y\u00f6n. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, faiz beklentilerine ba\u011fl\u0131 t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnleri (gelecekteki faiz seviyesine g\u00f6re fiyatlanan s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri) izlemeli. Bunlar aras\u0131nda SOFR vadeli i\u015flemleri (k\u0131sa vadeli ABD faizine dayal\u0131 vadeli kontratlar) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; faiz indirimi beklentisi daha ileri bir tarihe kayd\u0131k\u00e7a bu kontratlar\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015febilir. CME FedWatch Tool (vadeli i\u015flemlerden hareketle Fed\u2019in olas\u0131 kararlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin olas\u0131l\u0131k hesaplayan g\u00f6sterge) verileri de, Temmuz\u2019da faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n son bir haftada %60\u2019tan %45\u2019in alt\u0131na indi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n
S\u00fcregelen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc t\u00fcketici talebi belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131r\u0131yor ve piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselmesi riskini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. VIX (piyasadaki beklenen dalgalanmay\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d) 16 civar\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir bantta seyrederken yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 g\u00f6rebilir; bu da opsiyon primlerini (opsiyonun maliyetini) y\u00fckseltir. Korunma (hedge) amac\u0131yla SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) \u00fczerinde put opsiyonu (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayan opsiyon) almak veya VIX\u2019te al\u0131m opsiyonu (call) kullanmak, \u201cfaizler uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalacak\u201d endi\u015fesiyle olas\u0131 bir d\u00fczeltmeye kar\u015f\u0131 daha cazip hale gelebilir.<\/p>\n
G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc perakende sat\u0131\u015flar normalde zorunlu olmayan t\u00fcketim (consumer discretionary) hisselerini destekleyebilir. Ancak y\u00fcksek faizlerin uzun s\u00fcre devam etmesi, genel piyasa i\u00e7in bask\u0131 yaratabilir. 2025\u2019te, \u00f6zellikle teknoloji ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme hisselerinde, faizlere duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan olumsuz etkilenmenin) g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u015firket performans\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7ebildi\u011fini g\u00f6rd\u00fck. \u0130nternet arama verileri, \u201cresesyon riski\u201d (ekonomik daralma ihtimali) aramalar\u0131n\u0131n son bir ayda %15 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; bu da piyasada, Fed\u2019in t\u00fcketici talebini so\u011futmak i\u00e7in daha da s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya (faiz art\u0131rmaya ya da k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 duru\u015fu s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeye) gidebilece\u011fi endi\u015fesinin y\u00fckseldi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
S\u00fcrpriz veri: ABD Redbook y\u0131ll\u0131k %7,8\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131! G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc t\u00fcketim Fed\u2019in yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirimi ihtimalini zay\u0131flat\u0131yor, enflasyon riskini canl\u0131 tutuyor; SOFR\/VIX\/SPY opsiyonlar\u0131nda pozisyonlar yeniden g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irilmeli.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46178","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46178","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46178"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46178\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46178"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46178"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46178"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}