USD\/CAD sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc 1,3630 yak\u0131n\u0131nda tutunamay\u0131nca 1,3615\u2019e geriledi, ancak 1,3600 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc 1,3550 dip seviyesinden toparland\u0131 ve son iki seansta elde etti\u011fi kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 korudu.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na talep, ABD-\u0130ran geriliminin y\u00fckselmesiyle ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 hafif \u201criskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u201d (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha g\u00fcvenli g\u00f6r\u00fclen varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesi) ortam\u0131yla desteklendi. Haberlerde, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7en iki ABD bayrakl\u0131 y\u00fck gemisi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karken, ba\u015fka gemilerde patlama veya yang\u0131n bildirimleri ve BAE\u2019deki (Birle\u015fik Arap Emirlikleri) bir petrol liman\u0131na y\u00f6nelik \u0130ran sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 yer ald\u0131. S\u00f6z konusu liman\u0131n yak\u0131n\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck bir ABD askeri \u00fcss\u00fc bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fcksek seyrini korudu. WTI (ABD tipi ham petrol g\u00f6stergesi) 101 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kal\u0131rken 100 dolar e\u015fi\u011finin de alt\u0131na inmedi. Ham petrol Kanada\u2019n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ihracat kalemi oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in, y\u00fcksek fiyatlar Kanada Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 destekledi.<\/p>\n
Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak kritik ABD verileri aras\u0131nda Nisan ay\u0131 ISM Hizmetler PMI (sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksi; hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki faaliyet ve e\u011filimi g\u00f6steren anket verisi) ve Mart ay\u0131 JOLTS A\u00e7\u0131k \u0130\u015f Say\u0131s\u0131 (i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131ndaki a\u00e7\u0131k pozisyonlar\u0131 g\u00f6steren rapor) bulunuyor. Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ise ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (ayl\u0131k istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131; tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki istihdam\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7er) verisi ile Kanada\u2019n\u0131n Nisan istihdam verileri ayn\u0131 anda a\u00e7\u0131klanacak.<\/p>\n
CAD\u2019i etkileyen ba\u015fl\u0131ca unsurlar: Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoC) politika faizi ve enflasyon hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 (%1\u2013%3), petrol fiyatlar\u0131, i\u00e7 b\u00fcy\u00fcme, enflasyon, d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesi (ihracat-ithalat fark\u0131) ve piyasalardaki risk i\u015ftah\u0131. Kanada ile ticaret ba\u011flar\u0131 nedeniyle ABD ekonomisi de CAD \u00fczerinde etkili.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019te USD\/CAD\u2019in 1,3600 \u00fczerindeki toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131n zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemi hat\u0131rl\u0131yoruz; o zaman g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc petrol fiyatlar\u0131 Kanada Dolar\u0131\u2019na (loonie; Kanada Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n piyasa jargonundaki ad\u0131) belirgin destek veriyordu. Bug\u00fcn, 5 May\u0131s 2026 itibar\u0131yla g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm farkl\u0131: Parite 1,3750 civar\u0131nda daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrediyor. Kanada Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ana deste\u011fi zay\u0131flad\u0131; WTI petrol 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinden daha istikrarl\u0131 say\u0131labilecek 82 dolar\/varil band\u0131na geriledi.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 jeopolitikten, BoC ile ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) aras\u0131ndaki artan \u201cpolitika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na\u201d (faiz politikalar\u0131n\u0131n farkl\u0131 y\u00f6nlere gitmesine) kayd\u0131. Kanada\u2019da enflasyon %2,2\u2019ye geriledi. Bu, BoC\u2019nin ge\u00e7en ay \u201cfaiz indirim d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc\u201d (birden fazla toplant\u0131ya yay\u0131labilen faiz indirim s\u00fcreci) ba\u015flatmas\u0131na zemin haz\u0131rlad\u0131; y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcme %1 civar\u0131nda zorlanan ekonomiyi destekleme hedefi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ABD\u2019de daha \u201cyap\u0131\u015fkan\u201d enflasyon (d\u00fc\u015fmesi zor, kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon), son olarak %2,9 seviyesinde raporland\u0131 ve Fed\u2019in faizi sabit tutmas\u0131na neden oldu. Bu durum, faiz avantaj\u0131n\u0131 ABD Dolar\u0131 lehine a\u00e7t\u0131.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki ABD-\u0130ran geriliminin belirli ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131 yat\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f olsa da, k\u00fcresel piyasalardaki genel riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f e\u011filimi \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (belirsizlikte tercih edilen para\/varl\u0131k) olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclen ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 destekliyor. Bu da USD\/CAD i\u00e7in a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlayan bir zemin olu\u015fturuyor ve k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck geri \u00e7ekilmeleri yumu\u015fat\u0131yor. Piyasa, k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalardan \u00e7ok ABD ekonomisinin temel g\u00fcc\u00fcne odaklan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu ortamda, 4\u20136 hafta vadeli 1,3800 ve 1,3850 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (strike; opsiyonun al\u0131m-sat\u0131m hakk\u0131n\u0131n do\u011fdu\u011fu fiyat) USD\/CAD \u201cal\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131\u201d (call option; belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon) de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Bu strateji, faiz farklar\u0131n\u0131n (iki \u00fclke faizi aras\u0131ndaki fark) destekledi\u011fi y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filiminden yararlanmay\u0131 hedeflerken riski \u00f6denen primle (opsiyonun pe\u015fin maliyeti) s\u0131n\u0131rlar. Mevcut \u201c\u00f6rt\u00fck volatilite\u201d (implied volatility; opsiyon fiyat\u0131n\u0131n ima etti\u011fi beklenen oynakl\u0131k) orta seviyede oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in giri\u015f maliyeti g\u00f6rece cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/CAD 1,3615\u2019e sarksa da 1,3600 \u00fcst\u00fcnde tutunuyor. Jeopolitik riskler Dolar\u2019\u0131 desteklerken, zay\u0131flayan petrol ve BoC\u2019nin faiz indirimleri Fed\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 ayr\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor; 1,38\u20131,3850 call \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46176","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46176","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46176"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46176\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46176"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46176"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46176"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}