AUD\/USD, Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBA) politika faiz hedefini (nakit faiz hedefi) 25 baz puan art\u0131rarak %4,35\u2019e \u00e7\u0131karmas\u0131 ve ard\u0131ndan \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d (faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na ara verme) sinyali vermesi sonras\u0131 geri \u00e7ekildi. Parite, daha \u00f6nce 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n (50-DMA; son 50 g\u00fcn\u00fcn ortalama fiyat\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren teknik g\u00f6sterge) yeniden \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131ktan sonra 0,7150\u2019nin alt\u0131nda zay\u0131f seyrediyor. Y\u00f6n, k\u00fcresel risk i\u015ftah\u0131 (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme e\u011filimi) ve gelecek verilerle ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131.<\/p>\n
RBA\u2019n\u0131n Aral\u0131k 2026 politika faizi tahmini %4,7; \u015eubat\u2019ta %4,2 idi. Tahmin 2027 boyunca ve 2028\u2019in ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda da %4,7\u2019de kal\u0131yor. \u00c7ekirdek enflasyonun (g\u0131da ve enerji gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon; daha kal\u0131c\u0131 fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterir) 2. \u00e7eyrekte %3,8 ile zirve yapmas\u0131, ard\u0131ndan 2026 sonuna kadar %3,1\u2019e, 2027\u2019de %2,6\u2019ya ve 2028\u2019in ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda %2,5\u2019e gerilemesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Man\u015fet T\u00dcFE\u2019nin (CPI; t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi, genel enflasyon) Aral\u0131k 2026\u2019daki %4,0 seviyesinden 2027 ortas\u0131nda %2,4\u2019e gerilemesi bekleniyor. Ba\u015fkan\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 sonras\u0131 piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fti; \u00f6zellikle k\u0131sa vadeli faiz taraf\u0131nda (front end; yak\u0131n vadeli faiz beklentileri) ve 2\/10 getiri e\u011frisinde (2s\/10s; 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k ve 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizleri aras\u0131ndaki fark, e\u011frinin dikli\u011fini g\u00f6sterir) hareket g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Haziran\u2019da faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na ara verilmesi olas\u0131 olarak tan\u0131mland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Teknik tarafta AUD\/USD, Nisan\u2019da 50-DMA\u2019s\u0131n\u0131 yeniden a\u015ft\u0131ktan sonra 0,7225 civar\u0131nda ge\u00e7ici bir tepe yapt\u0131. 0,7060 yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki 50-DMA b\u00f6lgesi \u00f6nemli bir destek (fiyat\u0131n tutunma e\u011filimi g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi seviye), 0,7225 ise izlenecek \u00fcst seviye\/diren\u00e7 (yukar\u0131 hareketi zorla\u015ft\u0131ran seviye) olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019in bu d\u00f6nemine d\u00f6n\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, piyasa RBA\u2019n\u0131n politika faizini %4,35\u2019e y\u00fckselttikten sonra \u201cara verme\u201d mesaj\u0131n\u0131 sindiriyordu. Genel g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n en az bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 daha i\u00e7in kap\u0131y\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k tuttu\u011fu y\u00f6n\u00fcndeydi. O noktada kur, 0,7060 civar\u0131ndaki kritik destek ile 0,7225 direnci aras\u0131nda yatay bir bantta (konsolidasyon; y\u00f6ns\u00fcz s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma) hareket ediyordu.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019te i\u015faret edilen yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc enflasyon riskleri sonradan ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti ve RBA, ilk beklentilerden daha sert (agresif; daha h\u0131zl\u0131 ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc) ad\u0131mlar atmak zorunda kald\u0131. Resmi politika faizi Kas\u0131m 2025 toplant\u0131s\u0131ndan bu yana %4,60\u2019ta. 2026 1. \u00e7eyrek enflasyon verisi %3,6 ile y\u00fcksek seyretti. Bu, RBA\u2019n\u0131n %2-3 hedef band\u0131n\u0131n (hedef aral\u0131k) belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde; bu da s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn (faizi art\u0131rarak talebi so\u011futma s\u00fcreci) bitmemi\u015f olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu yatay d\u00f6nem sonunda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131; parite ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n sonlar\u0131na do\u011fru 0,7060 ana deste\u011finin alt\u0131na indi. Beklenen yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivme (momentum; fiyat\u0131n h\u0131z ve g\u00fc\u00e7 kazanmas\u0131) olu\u015fmad\u0131. Bunun bir nedeni de ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) \u015fahin (hawkish; daha y\u00fcksek faiz yanl\u0131s\u0131) mesajlar\u0131 sonras\u0131 ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesiydi. \u015eimdi AUD\/USD\u2019nin 0,6550 \u00fczerinde kalmakta zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
RBA\u2019n\u0131n 25 bp art\u0131\u015fla faizi %4,35\u2019e \u00e7ekip \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d sinyali vermesi AUD\/USD\u2019yi bask\u0131lad\u0131. Odak risk i\u015ftah\u0131, veri ak\u0131\u015f\u0131; teknikte 0,7060 destek, 0,7225 diren\u00e7.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46171","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46171","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46171"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46171\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46171"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46171"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46171"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}