Commerzbank, sterlindeki (\u0130ngiliz Sterlini) son y\u00fckseli\u015fin kal\u0131c\u0131 olmayabilece\u011fini; bunun y\u00fcksek \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) faiz beklentileri ve yeniden artan Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k siyasi riskinden kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtiyor. Banka, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda EUR\/GBP\u2019nin (euro\/sterlin paritesi) 0,89\u2019a do\u011fru hareket etmesini beklerken, GBP\/USD\u2019nin (sterlin\/dolar paritesi) daha uzun vadede kademeli y\u00fckselmesini; mevcut sterlin seviyelerinin ise 2027\u2019ye kadar yeniden g\u00f6r\u00fclmeyebilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Sterlin, sava\u015f\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan bu yana performans\u0131 pozitif olan be\u015f G10 para biriminden biri; di\u011ferleri ise a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak emtia ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00fclkelerin para birimleri. Commerzbank, bu tabloyu BoE\u2019nin kararl\u0131 bir ad\u0131m ataca\u011f\u0131 beklentisine ve mart ba\u015f\u0131nda azalan \u201csiyasi risk primi\u201dne (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n siyasi belirsizlik i\u00e7in talep etti\u011fi ek getiri) ba\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131, y\u0131l sonuna kadar iki faiz indirimi beklemekten zaman zaman \u00fc\u00e7ten fazla faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisine kayd\u0131. Commerzbank\u2019a g\u00f6re BoE bir kez faiz art\u0131rabilir; ard\u0131ndan y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda yeniden faiz indirimi beklentileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir. Bu da \u201cfaiz fiyatlamas\u0131na\u201d (piyasada faiz patikas\u0131na dair beklentilerin kura yans\u0131mas\u0131) ba\u011fl\u0131 sterlin kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 geri verebilir.<\/p>\n
EUR\/GBP 0,86 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Commerzbank, yerel se\u00e7im sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rabilece\u011fini; ancak y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde siyasi riskin azalmas\u0131n\u0131 ve sonras\u0131nda sterlinin toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor.<\/p>\n
2025 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki analizimize d\u00f6nersek, Sterlin\u2019in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalaca\u011f\u0131ndan emin de\u011fildik. Performans\u0131n, Bank of England (BoE) i\u00e7in a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 y\u00fcksek faiz beklentilerine ve siyasi riskte ge\u00e7ici bir gerilemeye dayand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fck. Bu \u015f\u00fcphelerin yerinde oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc ve ayn\u0131 ba\u015fl\u0131klar bug\u00fcn yeniden g\u00fcndeme geliyor.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l Sterlin\u2019i destekleyen BoE beklentilerindeki sert \u201cyeniden fiyatlama\u201d (piyasan\u0131n eski beklentiyi terk edip yeni faiz senaryosunu fiyatlara h\u0131zla yans\u0131tmas\u0131) art\u0131k tamamen geri al\u0131nd\u0131. 2025\u2019te piyasa, faiz indirimi beklerken \u00fc\u00e7ten fazla art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlamaya ge\u00e7mi\u015fti; bunu s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclemez g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fck. Bekledi\u011fimiz gibi odak yeniden olas\u0131 faiz indirimlerine kayd\u0131 ve bu da para birimi \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u015eu anda EUR\/GBP kuru 0,8750 civar\u0131nda. Son veriler, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta enflasyonun 2,8 ile \u201cinat\u00e7\u0131\u201d (hedefe kolay d\u00f6nmeyen) seyretti\u011fini, 2026 ilk \u00e7eyrek GSYH (Gayrisafi Yurt \u0130\u00e7i Has\u0131la: ekonominin toplam \u00fcretim de\u011feri) b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin ise y\u00fczde 0,1 ile zay\u0131f kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm BoE\u2019yi zor bir konuma itiyor ve ek faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
BoE\u2019nin \u015fimdilik faizi sabit tutaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz; ancak piyasa zay\u0131f ekonomiyi desteklemek i\u00e7in y\u0131l bitmeden faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 giderek daha fazla fiyatl\u0131yor. Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k ile daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faiz art\u0131rmaya daha yatk\u0131n) Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki bu beklenti fark\u0131, Sterlin\u2019de zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 destekliyor. T\u00fcrev ara\u00e7 (de\u011feri kur gibi ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal \u00fcr\u00fcn) i\u015flemi yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, bunu \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda daha y\u00fcksek EUR\/GBP i\u00e7in pozisyon alma f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 (opsiyonun devreye girdi\u011fi fiyat) 0,8800 civar\u0131nda olan EUR\/GBP al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131na (call: kur y\u00fckselirse kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan opsiyon) bakarak 0,8900 hedefi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde hareketi de\u011ferlendirebilir. Pozisyonun ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 maliyetini azaltmak i\u00e7in al\u0131m opsiyonu spread\u2019i (bir call al\u0131p ba\u015fka bir call satarak maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren strateji) de tercih edilebilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, y\u00fckseli\u015f potansiyeline kat\u0131l\u0131m sa\u011flarken riski s\u0131n\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n
Siyasi belirsizlik de 2025\u2019te yerel se\u00e7imler d\u00f6neminde oldu\u011fu gibi yeniden piyasaya giriyor. \u015eimdi odak, yakla\u015fan genel se\u00e7im ve maliye politikas\u0131nda (vergi-harcama politikas\u0131) belirgin bir de\u011fi\u015fim olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131. Bu yeniden artan siyasi risk primi, Sterlin \u00fczerinde ek a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yaratabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Sterlin rallisi aldat\u0131c\u0131 m\u0131? Commerzbank, y\u00fckseli\u015fin BoE\u2019de a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 faiz beklentisi ve artan siyasi riskten beslendi\u011fini, EUR\/GBP\u2019nin haftalarda 0,89\u2019a y\u00f6nelebilece\u011fini vurguluyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46168","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46168","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46168"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46168\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46168"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46168"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46168"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}