Hindistan rupisi yeniden de\u011fer kaybetti ve USD\/INR tekrar 95,00 seviyesine do\u011fru d\u00f6nd\u00fc. Bu hareket; s\u00fcregelen yabanc\u0131 portf\u00f6y \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131 (yabanc\u0131 fonlar\u0131n hisse ve tahvil piyasas\u0131ndan para \u00e7ekmesi) ve k\u00fcresel risk i\u015ftah\u0131ndaki (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme iste\u011fi) zay\u0131flama sonras\u0131 geldi.<\/p>\n
Brent petrol, ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinde net ilerleme olmamas\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 gecikmeler nedeniyle varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f, yurti\u00e7inde akaryak\u0131t perakende fiyatlar\u0131na zam riskini y\u00fckseltti.<\/p>\n
Yabanc\u0131 portf\u00f6y ak\u0131mlar\u0131 negatif seyrini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc; mevcut mali y\u0131lda hisse senedinde -5 milyar dolar ve bor\u00e7lanma ara\u00e7lar\u0131nda (tahvil gibi) -0,7 milyar dolar \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Bu geli\u015fmeler, mevcut piyasa ko\u015fullar\u0131nda USD\/INR\u2019de yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n riskin (kurun y\u00fckselme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n) artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
El Nino\u2019nun enflasyon \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratabilecek bir unsur oldu\u011fu belirtildi. G\u00f6sterge tahvil faizlerinin (piyasada referans al\u0131nan devlet tahvili getirileri) y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor; piyasa fiyatlamalar\u0131 olas\u0131 para politikas\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131 (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 gibi) ve daha y\u00fcksek s\u00fcbvansiyonlara (devlet destekleri) ba\u011fl\u0131 mali riskleri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bas\u0131n haberlerinde, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n d\u00f6viz rezervlerini (kur \u015foklar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 biriken yabanc\u0131 para varl\u0131klar\u0131) art\u0131rma ve giri\u015fleri te\u015fvik etme konular\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc aktar\u0131ld\u0131. G\u00fcndeme gelen ad\u0131mlar aras\u0131nda, yerle\u015fik olmayan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in giri\u015f kolayl\u0131\u011f\u0131 sa\u011flayan bir mekanizma ve yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131 tahvil pozisyonlar\u0131nda stopaj vergisinin (kayna\u011f\u0131nda kesilen vergi) kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 yer ald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu tabloya g\u00f6re yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d (mevcut kura g\u00f6re daha yukar\u0131 seviyeden al\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren, bu nedenle ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131) USD\/INR al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (belirli fiyattan d\u00f6viz alma hakk\u0131 tan\u0131yan s\u00f6zle\u015fme) satmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir; \u00f6rne\u011fin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda 84,50 ve \u00fczeri kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131yla. Bu strateji, \u201cprim\u201d (opsiyon sat\u0131c\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n pe\u015fin elde etti\u011fi gelir) kazanmay\u0131 ama\u00e7lar; ancak kurda sert y\u00fckseli\u015f olursa zarar riski ta\u015f\u0131r.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019te ithalat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n agresif bi\u00e7imde a\u00e7\u0131k pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 kapatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 (kur riskini azaltmak i\u00e7in erken ve y\u00fcksek oranl\u0131 koruma yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131) g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, mevcut g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm daha esnek bir yakla\u015f\u0131m alan\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Bir y\u0131ll\u0131k seviyeleri kilitlemek yerine daha k\u0131sa vadeli forward s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri (belirli vadede sabit kurdan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m anla\u015fmas\u0131) kullan\u0131labilir. Bu y\u00f6ntem, rupinin spot piyasada (anl\u0131k kur) olas\u0131 de\u011fer kazan\u0131m\u0131ndan yararlanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 b\u0131rak\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Rupide alarm: USD\/INR 95\u2019e d\u00f6n\u00fcyor! Yabanc\u0131 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar ve zay\u0131f risk i\u015ftah\u0131 bask\u0131 kurarken Brent 100$ \u00fcst\u00fcnde, zam riski b\u00fcy\u00fcyor; RBI giri\u015f te\u015fviki, opsiyon\/forward stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46165","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46165","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46165"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46165\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46165"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46165"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46165"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}