USD\/JPY, Japonya Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n piyasaya m\u00fcdahalesinin ard\u0131ndan ge\u00e7en per\u015fembe %3 geriledi. TD Securities, paritenin 2026 2. \u00e7eyrekte (Q2: y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131) 157,00 civar\u0131nda yatay seyretmesini bekliyor.<\/p>\n
160,00 seviyesi art\u0131k piyasalar taraf\u0131ndan \u201cresm\u00ee olmayan e\u015fik\u201d olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu durumun y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlamas\u0131 ve yeni uzun pozisyon (fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015fine oynayan i\u015flem) a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 azaltmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
TD Securities, m\u00fcdahale \u00f6ncesi seviyelere d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn \u00f6nceki \u00f6rneklere g\u00f6re daha yava\u015f olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki ad\u0131mlar\u0131, tek bir kuru savunmaktan \u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 ve spek\u00fclatif (k\u0131sa vadeli, y\u00fcksek riskli) hareketleri frenleme e\u011filimindeydi.<\/p>\n
Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n son m\u00fcdahalesi sonras\u0131 USD\/JPY\u2019de 160,00 seviyesinin yak\u0131n vadede g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u201ctavan\u201d gibi \u00e7al\u0131\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu nedenle, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 (strike: opsiyonun devreye girdi\u011fi fiyat) 160 ve \u00fczeri olan \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d (out-of-the-money: \u015fu anki fiyattan k\u00e2ra ge\u00e7memi\u015f) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 satmak \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in cazip bir strateji. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, paritenin bu yeni \u201ck\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 \u00e7izgiyi\u201d a\u015fmayaca\u011f\u0131na oynayarak prim (opsiyon sat\u0131c\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n pe\u015fin ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 gelir) toplayabilir.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en haftaki m\u00fcdahalenin b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcn 9 trilyon yenin \u00fczerinde oldu\u011fu tahmin ediliyor. Bu, 2024 ilkbahar\u0131ndaki geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 i\u015flemlerden beri g\u00f6r\u00fclmeyen \u00f6l\u00e7ekte bir kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu yeni ad\u0131m, 160,00 seviyesine y\u00f6nelik tavan alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Bu seviyeye do\u011fru k\u0131sa vadeli y\u00fckseli\u015fler, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131ndan faydalanan pozisyonlar i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat olarak de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
Paritenin 157,00 civar\u0131nda bir s\u00fcre yatay banda (konsolidasyon: belirgin y\u00f6n olmadan dar aral\u0131kta hareket) girmesini ve ge\u00e7en haftaki zirvelere k\u0131yasla oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (volatilite: fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131n \u015fiddeti) d\u00fc\u015fmesini bekliyoruz. Bu ortam, zaman de\u011feri erimesinden (time decay: opsiyonun vadesi yakla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a de\u011fer kayb\u0131) kazanan opsiyon sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 stratejileri i\u00e7in elveri\u015fli. \u00d6rne\u011fin k\u0131sa strangle (ayn\u0131 anda al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu satmak) veya iron condor (s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskli, d\u00f6rt opsiyonlu bant stratejisi) gibi i\u015flemler, USD\/JPY nispeten dar bir aral\u0131kta kald\u0131k\u00e7a avantaj sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131n sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc temel etken olan ABD ile Japonya aras\u0131ndaki faiz fark\u0131 (interest rate differential: iki \u00fclke faizlerinin aras\u0131ndaki makas) 3 y\u00fczde puan\u0131n \u00fczerinde ve geni\u015f kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Dolar\u0131 destekleyen bu unsur, paritede 152-153 b\u00f6lgesinin \u00e7ok alt\u0131na do\u011fru kal\u0131c\u0131 bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmeyi s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir. Bu da al\u0131m opsiyonu satman\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir yakla\u015f\u0131m oldu\u011funa, ancak agresif bi\u00e7imde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu alman\u0131n (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe oynama) daha az verimli olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/JPY, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n 9 trilyon yenlik m\u00fcdahalesiyle sert d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; 160 \u201cgayriresm\u00ee tavan\u201d oldu. TD Securities, 2026 Q2\u2019de 157 band\u0131 bekliyor; prim toplamak i\u00e7in 160+ call sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46163","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46163","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46163"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46163\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46163"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46163"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46163"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}