USD\/CAD, 10 Mart\u2019tan bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclen en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviye olan 1,3550 b\u00f6lgesinden gelen toparlanmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcremedi ve Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde yatay seyretti. Parite 1,3620 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; y\u00f6n \u00fczerinde farkl\u0131 etkenler etkili oldu.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 (Basra K\u00f6rfezi\u2019nden d\u00fcnya petrol ticaretine a\u00e7\u0131lan kritik ge\u00e7i\u015f noktas\u0131) \u00fczerinden ABD-\u0130ran gerilimine ba\u011fl\u0131 Orta Do\u011fu riskleri, ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 ve Kanada dolar\u0131n\u0131 destekledi. ABD dolar\u0131nda al\u0131mlar\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131 da USD\/CAD\u2019i bask\u0131lad\u0131. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, geni\u015fleyen jeopolitik belirsizlik ve ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) \u201c\u015fahin\u201d kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi (yani enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faizleri y\u00fcksek tutma e\u011filimi) ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 destekledi.<\/p>\n
Parite, 4 saatlik grafikte 100 periyotluk basit hareketli ortalaman\u0131n (SMA; belirli say\u0131da mumun ortalama fiyat\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren trend g\u00f6stergesi) alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece hafif a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filimi (bearish; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f yanl\u0131s\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm) korudu. Diren\u00e7 1,3650 civar\u0131nda; bu seviye ayn\u0131 zamanda mart sonu\u2013may\u0131s ba\u015f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn %23,6 Fibonacci d\u00fczeltmesine (Fibonacci retracement; \u00f6nceki hareketin olas\u0131 geri alma seviyelerini g\u00f6steren teknik seviye) denk geliyor.<\/p>\n
G\u00f6stergeler kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kt\u0131: RSI 51 civar\u0131nda (RSI; 0-100 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda momentum \u00f6l\u00e7er, 50 civar\u0131 n\u00f6tr kabul edilir) ve MACD hafif pozitifti (MACD; iki hareketli ortalama aras\u0131ndaki farktan t\u00fcretilen momentum g\u00f6stergesi). Bu tablo d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f momentumunun zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ederken, 1,3650 a\u015f\u0131lmadan net bir yukar\u0131 d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f sinyali \u00fcretmedi.<\/p>\n
1,3650 \u00fczeri bir hareket 1,3710 (%38,2), 1,3758 (%50,0) ve 1,3806 (%61,8) seviyelerini g\u00fcndeme getirebilir. Sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n yeniden g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi halinde destek, son sal\u0131n\u0131m dibine (swing low; k\u0131sa vadeli dip) yak\u0131n 1,3553 b\u00f6lgesinde.<\/p>\n
\u015eu anda USD\/CAD\u2019in 1,3620 etraf\u0131nda \u201cdenge arad\u0131\u011f\u0131\u201d (pivot; fiyat\u0131n s\u0131k d\u00f6n\u00fcp dola\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviye) g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor ve belirgin bir y\u00f6n \u00fcretmekte zorlan\u0131yor. Kanada dolar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcc\u00fc, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik risklerin do\u011frudan etkisiyle y\u00fcksek kalan petrol fiyatlar\u0131yla destekleniyor. Di\u011fer yandan ABD dolar\u0131, Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015funu koruyaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kal\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc destekleyen veriler, West Texas Intermediate (WTI; ABD\u2019de referans kabul edilen ham petrol t\u00fcr\u00fc) petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 87 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 \u015fekilde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor. Bu hareket, OPEC+\u2019\u0131n (OPEC ve m\u00fcttefik \u00fcreticiler) \u00fcretim k\u0131s\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 2026\u2019n\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fine kadar s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesiyle besleniyor. Bu durum \u201cloonie\u201d olarak bilinen Kanada dolar\u0131na (piyasa jargonunda CAD) temel destek sa\u011fl\u0131yor ve USD\/CAD\u2019in daha yukar\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131ran \u00f6nemli bir unsur.<\/p>\n
Di\u011fer tarafta, ge\u00e7en hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanan ABD T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (CPI; t\u00fcketici enflasyonunun temel \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fct\u00fc) Nisan 2026 verisi %3,2 ile beklentilerin biraz \u00fczerinde geldi ve Fed\u2019in yaz aylar\u0131 i\u00e7in faiz indirimi sinyali vermesini engelledi. \u0130nat\u00e7\u0131 enflasyon ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Piyasa art\u0131k eyl\u00fclden \u00f6nce faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %40\u2019\u0131n alt\u0131nda fiyatl\u0131yor; bu oran bir ay \u00f6nce %70\u2019in \u00fczerindeydi.<\/p>\n
Bu iki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ve z\u0131t etken nedeniyle f\u0131rsat\u0131n y\u00f6n tahmininden \u00e7ok dalgalanmada oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. \u201cUzun straddle\u201d opsiyon stratejisi uygundur: ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131na (strike; opsiyonun al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 verdi\u011fi fiyat) ve ayn\u0131 vadeye (expiration; opsiyonun sona erdi\u011fi tarih) sahip bir al\u0131m (call; belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) ve bir sat\u0131m (put; belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) opsiyonunun birlikte al\u0131nmas\u0131. Bu pozisyon, parite \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda opsiyon vadesi dolmadan hangi y\u00f6ne olursa olsun g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir hareket yaparsa kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
2025 ortas\u0131nda benzer bir belirsizlik d\u00f6neminde USD\/CAD\u2019in haftalarca s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131, ard\u0131ndan beklenenden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ABD istihdam verisinin tek g\u00fcnde 150 piplik (pip; FX\u2019te standart en k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck fiyat ad\u0131m\u0131, \u00e7o\u011fu paritede 0,0001) sert y\u00fckseli\u015f getirdi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Y\u00f6n yerine k\u0131r\u0131lmaya (breakout; s\u0131k\u0131\u015fman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc hareket) haz\u0131rlananlar daha ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olmu\u015ftu. Petrol hik\u00e2yesi ya da Fed hik\u00e2yesinden biri netle\u015fti\u011finde benzer bir tablo olu\u015fabilir.<\/p>\n
\u0130zlenecek ana teknik seviye 1,3650 direncidir. Bu b\u00f6lgenin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lma (sustained break; tek seferlik i\u011fne de\u011fil, kapan\u0131\u015flarla teyit) ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcst\u00fcn geldi\u011fine i\u015faret ederek 1,3710 hedefini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karabilir. Tersine, 1,3650 a\u015f\u0131lamaz ve fiyat 1,3550 alt\u0131na sarkarsa, y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n belirleyici oldu\u011fu ve daha derin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f alan\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131labilece\u011fi anlam\u0131na gelir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/CAD 1,3620\u2019de s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131: Petrol destekli CAD ile \u015fahin Fed\u2019in g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi\u011fi dolar \u00e7eki\u015fiyor. Kritik e\u015fik 1,3650; \u00fczeri 1,3710-1,3806, alt\u0131 1,3550 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131 artabilir. Straddle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46149","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46149","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46149"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46149\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46149"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46149"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46149"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}