EUR\/USD, iki g\u00fcnl\u00fck kayb\u0131n ard\u0131ndan yatay seyretti ve Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya saatlerinde 1,1690 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Parite 1,1700\u2019in alt\u0131na indi ve 1,1682 civar\u0131ndaki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA (\u00fcstel hareketli ortalama; son fiyatlara daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k vererek trendi g\u00f6steren ortalama) deste\u011fini test ediyor. <\/p>\n
Fiyat hareketi y\u00fckselen bir kanal\u0131n alt s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na yak\u0131n. Bu s\u0131n\u0131r k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f (ay\u0131 piyasas\u0131 sinyali) g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Parite 50 periyotluk EMA\u2019n\u0131n (k\u0131sa vadeli trendi izleyen \u00fcstel ortalama) hemen \u00fczerinde, ancak dokuz periyotluk EMA\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kal\u0131yor; bu da piyasada s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma ve karars\u0131zl\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret ediyor. <\/p>\n
14 g\u00fcnl\u00fck RSI (G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi; 0-100 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda al\u0131m-sat\u0131m bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7er, 50 civar\u0131 n\u00f6tr kabul edilir) 50\u2019ye yak\u0131n; bu da momentumun n\u00f6tr oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, son toparlanman\u0131n hen\u00fcz net bir y\u00f6ne d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmedi\u011fini anlat\u0131yor. <\/p>\n
EUR\/USD kanal\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkarsa, 13 Mart\u2019ta g\u00f6r\u00fclen 1,1411\u2019deki dokuz ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne do\u011fru sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131 artabilir. Destek oda\u011f\u0131, 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n kanal taban\u0131yla kesi\u015fti\u011fi 1,1682 seviyesinde. <\/p>\n
Yukar\u0131da ilk engel 1,1706\u2019daki dokuz g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA. \u00dczerine ge\u00e7ilmesi 17 Nisan\u2019daki 11 haftan\u0131n zirvesi 1,1849\u2019un yolunu a\u00e7abilir; ard\u0131ndan kanal\u0131n \u00fcst band\u0131 olan 1,1960 ve daha sonra 27 Ocak\u2019ta g\u00f6r\u00fclen 1,2082 (Haziran 2021\u2019den beri en y\u00fcksek seviye) izlenebilir. <\/p>\n
2025\u2019te bu d\u00f6nemdeki analize bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, EUR\/USD\u2019nin 1,1700 \u00e7evresinde dar bir bantta s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyordu. Piyasa 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamay\u0131 test ediyor, genel momentum n\u00f6tr kal\u0131yordu. Bu tablo, o d\u00f6nemde i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in karars\u0131zl\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret ediyordu. <\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcn tablo belirgin \u015fekilde de\u011fi\u015fti; parite 1,0850 civar\u0131nda \u00e7ok daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Ana etken art\u0131k net bir politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131: Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 faiz indirimine ba\u015flarken, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) faizi daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutaca\u011f\u0131 mesaj\u0131n\u0131 veriyor. Bu durum, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz teknik s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmadan belirgin bi\u00e7imde farkl\u0131. <\/p>\n
G\u00fcncel veriler de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 destekliyor: Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyonu %2,4 iken ABD enflasyonu %3,5 ile daha inat\u00e7\u0131. ABD dolar\u0131 lehine b\u00fcy\u00fcyen faiz fark\u0131, paritede a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn daha olas\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bu durum, t\u00fcrev fiyatlamas\u0131na da yans\u0131yor; t\u00fcrevler (\u00f6rne\u011fin opsiyonlar; gelecekte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) euroda daha fazla zay\u0131fl\u0131k beklentisiyle fiyatlan\u0131yor. <\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda, i\u015flem yapanlar bu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc harekete uygun stratejileri de\u011ferlendirebilir. 1,0750 civar\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (strike; opsiyonun hak kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131) sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put; fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazanan opsiyon) almak, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften faydalan\u0131rken riski net bi\u00e7imde s\u0131n\u0131rlamay\u0131 sa\u011flar. Ay\u0131 put spread (ayn\u0131 vadede bir put al\u0131p daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 put satmak; maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcr, kazanc\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlar) de ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 maliyetini azaltmak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131labilir. <\/p>\n
Yakla\u015fan veri a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131yla sert hareket riski nedeniyle, dalgalanma art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bekleyenler uzun strangle uygulayabilir. Bu strateji, \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d (out-of-the-money; kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut fiyat\u0131n daha uza\u011f\u0131nda olan) bir put ve bir call (al\u0131m opsiyonu; fiyat y\u00fckselirse de\u011fer kazan\u0131r) almay\u0131 i\u00e7erir ve fiyat\u0131n iki y\u00f6nde de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc hareket etmesi halinde kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, y\u00f6n de\u011fil oynakl\u0131k (volatilite; fiyat\u0131n dalgalanma d\u00fczeyi) \u00fczerine kuruludur ve mevcut belirsizli\u011fi yans\u0131t\u0131r. <\/p>\n
2025\u2019te izlenen 1,1682 deste\u011fi ve 1,1849 zirvesi gibi seviyeler art\u0131k geride kald\u0131 ve uzun vadede g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc diren\u00e7 konumunda. Piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya kayd\u0131; 1,1000\u2019e do\u011fru y\u00fckseli\u015fler art\u0131k sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u00d6nceki y\u00fckselen kanal da uzun s\u00fcredir k\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
EUR\/USD\u2019de kritik e\u015fik: 1,17 alt\u0131 bask\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Teknikte EMA\/RSI n\u00f6tr s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma sinyali verirken, ECB-Fed politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 ve faiz fark\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc destekliyor; 1,10 y\u00fckseli\u015fleri sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46141","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46141","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46141"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46141\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46141"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46141"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46141"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}