IMF Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kristalina Georgieva, enflasyonun (fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n) zaten y\u00fckseldi\u011fini ve Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki sava\u015f\u0131n 2027\u2019ye kadar s\u00fcrmesi halinde k\u00fcresel ekonominin \u201c\u00e7ok daha k\u00f6t\u00fc bir sonu\u00e7la\u201d kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Reuters, Georgieva\u2019n\u0131n Sal\u0131 g\u00fcnk\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131 aktard\u0131.<\/p>\n
Georgieva, 2027\u2019ye kadar petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n varil ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 125 dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir senaryo \u00e7izdi. Bunun enflasyonu daha da yukar\u0131 itebilece\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n
Georgieva, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ve petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolar civar\u0131nda ya da \u00fczerinde seyretti\u011fi ortamda IMF\u2019nin \u201columsuz senaryosunun\u201d (k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fen temel varsay\u0131m) zaten devrede oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Bunu enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131yla ili\u015fkilendirdi.<\/p>\n
Uzun vadeli enflasyon beklentilerinin (hanehalk\u0131 ve yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n ilerisi i\u00e7in fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 tahmini) \u015fimdilik \u201c\u00e7\u0131palanm\u0131\u015f\u201d (kontrolden \u00e7\u0131kmam\u0131\u015f, dengede) kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131n da s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 (krediye eri\u015fimin zorla\u015fmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, faizlerin sert y\u00fckselmedi\u011fini) ifade etti. Ancak sava\u015f uzarsa bunun de\u011fi\u015febilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Petrol 125 dolara \u00e7\u0131karsa enflasyonun y\u00fckselece\u011fini ve enflasyon beklentilerinin \u201c\u00e7\u0131palanmaktan \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fini\u201d (beklentilerin bozulup daha y\u00fcksek enflasyonu normalle\u015ftirebilece\u011fini) belirtti. Bunun ekonomik tabloyu daha da k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015ftirece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu.<\/p>\n
Temmuz vadeli Brent petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinin (gelecekte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) varil ba\u015f\u0131na 110 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu y\u00fckseli\u015f, kritik deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 hatlar\u0131 \u00e7evresindeki gerilimin artmas\u0131yla h\u0131zland\u0131. Bu ortamda ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinde uzun pozisyon (fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131na oynama) ve enerji ETF\u2019lerinde (bir endeksi\/sekt\u00f6r\u00fc takip eden borsa yat\u0131r\u0131m fonu) al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) gerilimi fiyatlamak i\u00e7in do\u011frudan ara\u00e7lar olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Jeopolitik tablo d\u00fczelmezse 125 dolar hedefi daha olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en ay a\u00e7\u0131klanan \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE (Core CPI: enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) verisinin y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f %4,2 gelmesi, enflasyonun kal\u0131c\u0131la\u015fmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (enflasyonu bask\u0131lamak i\u00e7in faizi y\u00fcksek tutmaya e\u011filimli) bir duru\u015f sinyali verdi; bu da 2026 i\u00e7in faiz indirim beklentilerini zay\u0131flatt\u0131. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde uzun vadeli tahvil ETF\u2019lerinde sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) gibi ara\u00e7lar, tahvil getirilerinin (faizlerin) y\u00fckselmesinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n
Belirsizlik, VIX endeksinde (piyasadaki oynakl\u0131k ve stres g\u00f6stergesi) de g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. VIX\u2019in 25 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131, piyasa stresinin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu ortam, portf\u00f6y korumas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemini art\u0131r\u0131yor. S&P 500 gibi ana endekslerde sat\u0131m opsiyonu almak, y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131 ve enflasyonun yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bask\u0131ya kar\u015f\u0131 korunma (hedge: zarar riskini azaltma) sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
IMF Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Georgieva uyard\u0131: Orta Do\u011fu sava\u015f\u0131 2027\u2019ye uzarsa petrol 125 dolar\u0131 g\u00f6rebilir; enflasyon t\u0131rman\u0131r, beklentiler bozulur. Y\u00fcksek faiz d\u00f6nemi uzar, piyasa stresi artar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46139","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46139","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46139"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46139\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46139"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46139"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46139"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}