{"id":46138,"date":"2026-05-05T06:29:18","date_gmt":"2026-05-05T06:29:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/rba-faiz-karari-oncesinde-yatirimcilar-aud-usdnin-07160-civarinda-seyrettigini-ve-kayiplarini-ust-uste-ikinci-gune-tasidigini-goruyor\/"},"modified":"2026-05-05T06:29:18","modified_gmt":"2026-05-05T06:29:18","slug":"rba-faiz-karari-oncesinde-yatirimcilar-aud-usdnin-07160-civarinda-seyrettigini-ve-kayiplarini-ust-uste-ikinci-gune-tasidigini-goruyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/rba-faiz-karari-oncesinde-yatirimcilar-aud-usdnin-07160-civarinda-seyrettigini-ve-kayiplarini-ust-uste-ikinci-gune-tasidigini-goruyor\/","title":{"rendered":"RBA faiz karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, AUD\/USD\u2019nin 0,7160 civar\u0131nda seyretti\u011fini ve kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 \u00fcst \u00fcste ikinci g\u00fcne ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

AUD\/USD \u00fcst \u00fcste ikinci g\u00fcnde geriledi ve Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya saatlerinde 0,7160 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Piyasalar, Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBA) g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde faiz art\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. ASX 30 G\u00fcnl\u00fck Bankalararas\u0131 Nakit Faiz Vadeli Kontratlar\u0131 (bankalar\u0131n k\u0131sa vadede birbirine bor\u00e7 verdi\u011fi faize dayal\u0131 t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn) May\u0131s 2026 i\u00e7in 1 May\u0131s\u2019ta 95,745 seviyesindeydi; bu da faizin %4,35\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lma ihtimalinin %74 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n

Parite, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da tansiyon y\u00fckselirken g\u00fcvenli liman talebiyle ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi sonucu zay\u0131flad\u0131. G\u00fcvenli liman talebi, belirsizlik d\u00f6nemlerinde yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha g\u00fcvenli g\u00f6r\u00fclen varl\u0131klara (\u00f6zellikle ABD dolar\u0131 ve ABD tahvilleri) y\u00f6nelmesi anlam\u0131na gelir. CNBC, Birle\u015fik Arap Emirlikleri\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019a ait \u0130HA\u2019lar (insans\u0131z hava arac\u0131) ve f\u00fczelerle hedef al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ABD\u2019nin ise H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda \u0130ran\u2019a ait tekneleri imha etti\u011fini bildirdi.<\/p>\n

Jeopolitik Risk ve G\u00fcvenli Liman Ak\u0131mlar\u0131<\/h3>\n

ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n bo\u011fazda ticari gemileri koruyan ABD gemilerini hedef almas\u0131 halinde \u201cyery\u00fcz\u00fcnden silinece\u011fini\u201d s\u00f6yledi. \u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Abbas Araghchi ise durumun \u201csiyasi bir krize askeri \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a g\u00f6sterdi\u011fini\u201d belirtti ve X\u2019te \u201cProject Freedom is Project Deadlock\u201d ifadelerini kulland\u0131.<\/p>\n

Minneapolis Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Neel Kashkari, ABD\u2019de ek faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n ihtimal d\u0131\u015f\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. \u00d6zellikle \u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 gerilimin enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltmesiyle enflasyon (fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n genelle\u015fmesi) risklerinin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulad\u0131.<\/p>\n

Avustralya dolar\u0131, bir yanda RBA\u2019n\u0131n beklenen faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131, di\u011fer yanda g\u00fc\u00e7lenen ABD dolar\u0131 aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. \u0130ran gerilimiyle gelen g\u00fcvenli liman talebi \u015fu anda daha bask\u0131n; bu nedenle faizin %4,35\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kma ihtimali y\u00fcksek olsa da parite \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu tablo, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (fiyatlar\u0131n k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede sert ini\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f yapmas\u0131) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n

H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izleniyor; burada ya\u015fanacak bir aksama k\u00fcresel enerji arz\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frudan tehdit eder ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 iter. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fte bo\u011fazdaki k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck olaylar bile fiyatlarda sert s\u0131\u00e7ramalara yol a\u00e7t\u0131; \u00f6rne\u011fin 2019 ortas\u0131ndaki benzer gerginliklerde Brent petrol bir g\u00fcnde %4\u2019ten fazla y\u00fckselmi\u015fti. Bu senaryo, k\u00fcresel enflasyon endi\u015felerini art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faizi y\u00fcksek tutma e\u011filiminde) duru\u015funu g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi\u011fi i\u00e7in ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 destekleyebilir.<\/p>\n

Belirsizlik y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fundan, sadece d\u00f6vizde de\u011fil t\u00fcm varl\u0131klarda sert fiyat hareketleri g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. CBOE Volatilite Endeksi (VIX) \u2014 ABD borsas\u0131nda beklenen dalgalanmay\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d \u2014 piyasa stresini izlemek i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir g\u00f6stergedir. Ayr\u0131ca AUD\/USD \u00fczerinde straddle almak gibi (ayn\u0131 anda al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu alarak fiyat hangi y\u00f6ne giderse gitsin b\u00fcy\u00fck harekette kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen) oynakl\u0131k odakl\u0131 t\u00fcrev (de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal ara\u00e7) stratejiler de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n

Oynak Makro Zeminde Risk Y\u00f6netimi<\/h3>\n

AUD\u2019nin risk i\u015ftah\u0131na duyarl\u0131 bir para birimi oldu\u011fu unutulmamal\u0131; k\u00fcresel kriz d\u00f6nemlerinde genellikle zay\u0131flar. Emtia ihracat\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olsa da, ilk etapta ABD dolar\u0131na ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f \u00e7o\u011fu zaman daha bask\u0131n olur; 2020 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki piyasa pani\u011finde de bu g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu nedenle, AUD\/USD \u00fczerinde put opsiyonu (belirli bir fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) almak, Orta Do\u011fu geriliminin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 koruma (hedge) sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

AUD\/USD 0,7160\u2019e gerilerken g\u00f6zler RBA\u2019da: %74 olas\u0131l\u0131kla faiz %4,35\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kabilir. Ancak \u0130ran-H\u00fcrm\u00fcz gerilimi g\u00fcvenli liman dolar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor; paritede bask\u0131 ve oynakl\u0131k riski art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46138","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46138","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46138"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46138\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46138"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46138"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46138"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}