Alt\u0131n, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi ve ABD Hazine tahvili faizlerinin (devletin bor\u00e7lanma k\u00e2\u011f\u0131tlar\u0131n\u0131n getirisi) sert y\u00fckselmesiyle pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc %2\u2019den fazla geriledi. XAU\/USD, g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 4.639 dolar\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 4.521 dolardan i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki ate\u015fkesin (\u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 ge\u00e7ici durdurma) sona ermesine yakla\u015f\u0131l\u0131rken riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f artt\u0131. ABD Donanmas\u0131, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7en ticari gemilere e\u015flik etmek i\u00e7in Operation Freedom\u2019u ba\u015flatt\u0131. \u0130ran ise BAE\u2019ye y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar d\u00fczenledi ve s\u00fcrat tekneleriyle (h\u0131zl\u0131 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck botlar) seyr\u00fcseferi (deniz trafi\u011fini) k\u0131s\u0131tlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Donald Trump, gemi hareketini aksatmak i\u00e7in \u201cyedi k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck botu devre d\u0131\u015f\u0131 b\u0131rakt\u0131k\u201d dedi. CNN, ABD ve \u0130srail\u2019in \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 24 saat i\u00e7inde yeniden ba\u015flatabilece\u011fini aktard\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD hisse senetleri gerilerken petrol fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fckseldi. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 genel g\u00fcc\u00fc) %0,25\u2019in \u00fczerinde artt\u0131. DXY\u2019deki toparlanma endeksi 97,97\u2019den 98,46\u2019ya ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi 6 baz puan (0,06 y\u00fczde puan) artarak %4,432\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi. Bu durum, faiz getirisi olmayan alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 kurdu. New York Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 John Williams, politikan\u0131n \u201ciyi konumland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u201d ve Fed\u2019in \u00e7ift hedefinin (enflasyon ve istihdam) her iki taraf\u0131na ili\u015fkin risklerin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Prime Terminal verilerine g\u00f6re piyasalar 17 Haziran Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faizin sabit kalma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %96 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. ABD Fabrika Sipari\u015fleri martta ayl\u0131k bazda %1,5 artt\u0131; beklenti %0,5\u2019ti. \u015eubatta art\u0131\u015f %0,3\u2019t\u00fc.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcndemde sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc ISM Hizmet PMI (hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde faaliyet \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fc) ve ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (tar\u0131m hari\u00e7 yeni istihdam) verisi bulunuyor. Teknik seviyelerde diren\u00e7 4.600 dolar, 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalama (SMA: belirli g\u00fcn kapan\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n ortalamas\u0131) 4.764 dolar. Destekler 4.500, 4.351, 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA 4.287 ve 4.098 dolar; alt\u0131nda 4.000 seviyesi izleniyor.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar\u0131 ve tahvil faizleri y\u00fckselirken alt\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadede a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. 4.500 psikolojik seviyesinin alt\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (strike: opsiyonun al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 verdi\u011fi seviye) sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (put: fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilen opsiyon) de\u011ferlendirilebilir; hedef mart dip seviyesi 4.351 dolar. DXY\u2019nin 98,45\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, g\u00fcvenli limana y\u00f6nelimin (flight to safety: belirsizlikte dolara\/tahvillere y\u00f6nelme) dolar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki tablo \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemez; bu da sert fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131 (volatilite: fiyat oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131) ihtimalini b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor. Gerilimin aniden artmas\u0131 ya da azalmas\u0131 halinde, uzun volatilite stratejisi (oynakl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan yararlanan yakla\u015f\u0131m) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin alt\u0131n vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (futures: ileri tarihte al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) straddle (ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131nda hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu almak) bu senaryoda kazan\u00e7l\u0131 olabilir. VIX (piyasa korku endeksi, S&P 500\u2019e dayal\u0131 oynakl\u0131k \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcs\u00fc) bug\u00fcn 25\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak endi\u015fenin y\u00fckseldi\u011fine i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
Benzer bir tablo 2025\u2019in sonlar\u0131nda G\u00fcney \u00c7in Denizi\u2019ndeki deniz geriliminde g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc: Riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015fla dolar \u00f6nce sert y\u00fckselmi\u015f, alt\u0131n ise ilk etapta geri \u00e7ekildikten sonra \u015fok ge\u00e7ince de\u011fer saklama arac\u0131 (uzun vadede al\u0131m g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc koruma) olarak toparlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu \u00f6rnek, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma geni\u015flerse alt\u0131n lehine sonradan bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f ihtimalini tamamen d\u0131\u015flamamay\u0131 gerektiriyor.<\/p>\n
Yeni Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh d\u00f6neminde piyasa, haziran boyunca faizin sabit kalaca\u011f\u0131na neredeyse kesin g\u00f6z\u00fcyle bak\u0131yor; CME FedWatch (vadeli i\u015flemlere g\u00f6re faiz olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 arac\u0131) %96 olas\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6steriyor. Ge\u00e7en ay vadeli piyasalar (futures markets: gelece\u011fe d\u00f6n\u00fck fiyatlama yapan piyasa) yaz aylar\u0131nda %30 indirim ihtimalini fiyatl\u0131yordu. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k faizin %4,432\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, faiz getirisi olmayan k\u00fcl\u00e7e alt\u0131n\u0131 (bullion: fiziki alt\u0131n) elde tutmay\u0131 maliyetli hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde alt\u0131n, 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama 4.287 ile 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama 4.764 aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu bant, opsiyon primi satmay\u0131 (premium: opsiyonun fiyat\u0131) cazip k\u0131labilir. 4.700 diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesinin \u00fczerinde k\u0131sa pozisyonlu ay\u0131 call spread (bear call spread: yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcp iki al\u0131m opsiyonu ile risk\/s\u0131n\u0131r belirleyen strateji) zay\u0131f momentumu (momentum: fiyat hareketinin g\u00fcc\u00fc) de\u011ferlendirebilir ve riski s\u0131n\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131nda sert sat\u0131\u015f: Dolar ve ABD tahvil faizleri s\u0131\u00e7ray\u0131nca XAU\/USD %2\u2019yi a\u015ft\u0131, 4.521\u2019e indi. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz gerilimi volatiliteyi b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor; 4.500 alt\u0131 put, straddle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46134","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46134","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46134"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46134\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46134"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46134"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46134"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}