AUD\/USD pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,5 geriledi ve g\u00fcn i\u00e7i en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck 0,7150 seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 0,7170 civar\u0131nda kapand\u0131. Bu hareket, cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 0,7225 \u00fczerindeki d\u00f6rt y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesinin ard\u0131ndan paritenin 0,7200 alt\u0131na sarkmas\u0131yla geldi.<\/p>\n
Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (RBA), sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc faiz karar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klayacak. Vadeli i\u015flemler (gelece\u011fe d\u00f6n\u00fck fiyatlama yapan kontratlar) piyasas\u0131, faizin 25 baz puan (0,25 puan) artarak %4,10\u2019dan %4,35\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kma ihtimalini yakla\u015f\u0131k %60 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Avustralya\u2019da mart ay\u0131 man\u015fet T\u00dcFE (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi, genel enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) %4,6\u2019ya y\u00fckseldi ve RBA\u2019n\u0131n %2-%3 hedef band\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. K\u0131rp\u0131lm\u0131\u015f ortalama T\u00dcFE (u\u00e7 fiyat hareketleri ay\u0131klanm\u0131\u015f, daha \u201c\u00e7ekirdek\u201d enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) %3,3 oldu; mart toplant\u0131s\u0131nda oylama 5\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 4 art\u0131\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnde sonu\u00e7land\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (Non-Farm Payrolls, tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerde ayl\u0131k istihdam de\u011fi\u015fimi) verisinin 178 bin \u00f6nceki seviyeye kar\u015f\u0131 60 bin gelmesi, i\u015fsizli\u011fin ise %4,3\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi bekleniyor. Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc ISM Hizmet PMI (hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde faaliyet g\u00f6stergesi) ve JOLTS (a\u00e7\u0131k i\u015f pozisyonlar\u0131 verisi) a\u00e7\u0131klanacak; \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc ise ADP \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam\u0131 (\u00f6zel sekt\u00f6rde istihdam tahmini) gelecek.<\/p>\n
15 dakikal\u0131k grafikte AUD\/USD 0,7168 seviyesindeydi ve g\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131 olan 0,7211\u2019in alt\u0131ndayd\u0131; Stokastik RSI (momentumu \u00f6l\u00e7en teknik g\u00f6sterge) 45 civar\u0131nda seyrediyordu. G\u00fcnl\u00fck grafikte fiyat, 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA (\u00fcssel hareketli ortalama, son fiyatlara daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k veren ortalama) 0,7061\u2019in ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA 0,6816\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerindeydi; Stokastik RSI 54 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131.<\/p>\n
AUD\/USD\u2019nin \u015fu anda 0,6650 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesi ve ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki 0,7060 destek seviyesinin (al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n devreye girdi\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclen fiyat b\u00f6lgesi) belirgin \u015fekilde alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131, piyasada yatay bant (range) e\u011filimine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu ortamda, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 (strike) 0,6800 civar\u0131nda olan \u201czararda\u201d (out-of-the-money; mevcut fiyata g\u00f6re k\u00e2ra ge\u00e7memi\u015f) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (call; belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) sat\u0131p prim (opsiyon sat\u0131c\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 bedel) toplamak, y\u00fckseli\u015fin politika farklar\u0131yla s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalabilece\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesiyle daha temkinli bir y\u00f6ntem olabilir. Bir ayl\u0131k opsiyonlarda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility; opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan hesaplanan beklenen dalgalanma) %8,5 civar\u0131nda ve bu, belirli risk \u00fcstlenmeye kar\u015f\u0131 makul bir getiri sunabilir.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan, sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften endi\u015fe edenler i\u00e7in sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put; belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) almak, y\u0131l i\u00e7i diplerin alt\u0131na olas\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmaya kar\u015f\u0131 korunma (hedge; riski azaltma) sa\u011flayabilir. B\u00f6yle bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, yakla\u015fan ABD verilerinin Fed\u2019i (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) gev\u015feme (faiz indirimi) ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 daha da ertelemeye zorlamas\u0131 ve dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesiyle tetiklenebilir. Put spread (iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla put al\u0131p satarak maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren strateji), daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetle bu riske kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flarken, merkez bankalar\u0131ndan daha net sinyal beklenen d\u00f6nemde i\u015fe yarayabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
AUD\/USD 0,7200 alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131: g\u00f6zler RBA\u2019da, %60 ihtimalle 25 bp art\u0131\u015f. ABD istihdam verileri dolar\u0131 hareketlendirebilir. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm yatay; opsiyonda call sat\u0131\u015f\u0131\/put spread \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46127","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46127","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46127"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46127\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46127"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46127"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46127"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}