AMD, Super Micro Computer ve Navitas Semiconductor, ABD\u2019de sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc piyasa kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131 sonras\u0131 5 May\u0131s 2026\u2019da bilan\u00e7o a\u00e7\u0131klayacak. **Opsiyon piyasas\u0131** (hissenin belirli bir fiyattan al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131n\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) 8 May\u0131s 2026 vadeli opsiyonlarda bilan\u00e7o haftas\u0131 i\u00e7in beklenen hareketleri \u015f\u00f6yle fiyatl\u0131yor: AMD yakla\u015f\u0131k %8 (331,70\u2013389,38 dolar), SMCI yakla\u015f\u0131k %12,55\u2013%12,77 (23,70\u201330,50 dolar) ve NVTS \u00b12,99 dolar ya da %17,16 (14,45\u201320,43 dolar).<\/p>\n
Yapay zek\u00e2 (AI) temal\u0131 son sonu\u00e7lar aras\u0131nda MaxLinear\u2019\u0131n 1\u00c7 gelirinin 137,2 milyon dolar (y\u0131ll\u0131k %43 art\u0131\u015f) olmas\u0131, 2\u00c7 i\u00e7in 160\u2013170 milyon dolar gelir beklentisi (piyasa tahmini 137,1 milyon dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde) ve altyap\u0131 gelirinin y\u0131ll\u0131k %136 artmas\u0131 yer ald\u0131. Monolithic Power 1\u00c7\u2019de 804,2 milyon dolar gelir (y\u0131ll\u0131k %26 art\u0131\u015f) a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131; Kurumsal Veri (Enterprise Data) geliri 262,8 milyon dolar oldu.<\/p>\n
Google Cloud geliri %63 artarak 20 milyar dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve **backlog** (imzalanm\u0131\u015f ancak hen\u00fcz gelir yaz\u0131lmam\u0131\u015f i\u015f\/sipari\u015f birikimi) neredeyse ikiye katlanarak 460 milyar dolara yakla\u015ft\u0131. Microsoft Cloud geliri %29 artarak 54,5 milyar dolara y\u00fckseldi; **commercial remaining performance obligation** (imzalanm\u0131\u015f s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerden gelecekte teslim edilecek hizmet\/\u00fcr\u00fcne ba\u011fl\u0131, hen\u00fcz gelirle\u015fmemi\u015f tutar) %99 artarak 627 milyar dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve Azure ile di\u011fer bulut hizmetleri yakla\u015f\u0131k %40 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
\u00d6ne \u00e7\u0131kan teknik seviyeler: AMD\u2019de 336\u2013340 dolar destek (al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n devreye girebilece\u011fi b\u00f6lge), yukar\u0131da 349,50 ve 363 dolar seviyeleri; **short float** %2,20 (dola\u015f\u0131mdaki hisselerin a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa sat\u0131lan k\u0131sm\u0131) ve **short interest** 35,65 milyon hisse (a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa sat\u0131l\u0131p kapanmam\u0131\u015f hisse adedi). SMCI\u2019de 25,47\u201326,20 dolar aral\u0131\u011f\u0131, 31,70\u201331,74 dolar diren\u00e7 (sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fclebilece\u011fi b\u00f6lge), short float %16,84 ve short interest 86,79 milyon hisse.<\/p>\n
Navitas\u2019ta 16 dolar destek, 18 dolar diren\u00e7, short float %23,32 ve short interest 48,57 milyon hisse. **\u0130ma edilen aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n** (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lan beklenen fiyat hareketi) a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131, daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir fiyatlaman\u0131n ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 sinyali olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
AMD, Super Micro ve Navitas bu ak\u015fam bilan\u00e7o a\u00e7\u0131klayacak. Piyasa, yapay zek\u00e2 y\u00fckseli\u015finin devam edip etmeyece\u011fini g\u00f6rmek istiyor. Bulut \u015firketlerinin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 havay\u0131 destekledi; \u015fimdi donan\u0131m taraf\u0131n\u0131n bunu do\u011frulamas\u0131 gerekiyor. Kritik konu, ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck **guidance**\u2019\u0131n (\u015firketin gelecek d\u00f6nem beklenti\/a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131) zaten y\u00fcksek olan beklentileri kar\u015f\u0131lay\u0131p kar\u015f\u0131lamayaca\u011f\u0131.<\/p>\n
Opsiyon piyasas\u0131, bu ak\u015famki bilan\u00e7oya verilecek ilk tepki i\u00e7in en net \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fct\u00fc sunuyor. Bu ima edilen hareketler \u201czaten fiyatlanm\u0131\u015f\u201d beklentiyi g\u00f6sterir; bu aral\u0131klar\u0131n i\u00e7inde kalan hareketler s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131r. Aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 \u015fekilde \u00fcst\u00fcne ya da alt\u0131na ge\u00e7ilmesi, ger\u00e7ek bir yeniden fiyatlamaya i\u015faret eder.<\/p>\n
AMD\u2019de odak, yapay zek\u00e2 h\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi. 2025\u2019in son \u00e7eyre\u011finde veri merkezi gelirinin y\u0131ll\u0131k %80 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 biliniyor; bu da MI300 h\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda \u00e7\u0131tay\u0131 y\u00fckseltiyor. Beklentiler g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelir ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc guidance y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Hissenin 389,38 dolar \u00fcst s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fmas\u0131 durumunda al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir; zay\u0131f sonu\u00e7 ve 331,70 dolar alt\u0131na sarkma ise sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (put) g\u00fcndeme getirebilir.<\/p>\n
Super Micro daha oynak bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm sergiliyor; 2025\u2019in ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde %200\u2019\u00fc a\u015fan y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan geri \u00e7ekilme g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. 2025 sonundaki sekt\u00f6r raporlar\u0131, yapay zek\u00e2 sunucu sevkiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k %25\u2019in \u00fczerinde artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi; bu nedenle g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelir bekleniyor. Hissenin 31,74 dolar civar\u0131ndaki ana direnci a\u015fmas\u0131, **short squeeze** (a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa sat\u0131\u015f yapanlar\u0131n zarar kesmek i\u00e7in h\u0131zl\u0131 al\u0131ma ge\u00e7mesiyle fiyat\u0131n sert y\u00fckselmesi) riskini art\u0131rabilir; bu senaryoda kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut fiyat\u0131n \u00fczerinde olan call\u2019lar (out-of-the-money) daha y\u00fcksek riskle daha y\u00fcksek hareket potansiyeli ta\u015f\u0131yabilir.<\/p>\n
Navitas en spek\u00fclatif isim; ancak %23\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerindeki y\u00fcksek short float s\u00fcrprizlere hassasiyet yarat\u0131yor. \u015eirketin **GaN** (galyum nitr\u00fcr; g\u00fc\u00e7 elektroni\u011finde verimlili\u011fi art\u0131ran bir yar\u0131 iletken malzeme) tabanl\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7 bile\u015fenleri pazar\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131lda %30\u2019un \u00fczerinde b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi bekleniyor; as\u0131l mesele \u015firketin bu talebi ne kadar yakalayabildi\u011fi. \u0130ki y\u00f6nde de sert hareket ihtimali nedeniyle **straddle** (ayn\u0131 vade ve kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla hem call hem put alarak oynakl\u0131\u011fa oynama) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir; ya da 16 dolar deste\u011fi veya 18 dolar direncinin net k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 sonras\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc put\/call ile daha basit bir pozisyon tercih edilebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
G\u00f6zler bu ak\u015fam AMD, SMCI ve Navitas bilan\u00e7olar\u0131nda: opsiyonlar s\u0131ras\u0131yla %8, %12,7 ve %17 oynakl\u0131k fiyatl\u0131yor. Bulut devleri g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc; \u015fimdi kritik s\u0131nav, AI donan\u0131m\u0131nda guidance beklentileri a\u015fabilecek mi?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46126","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46126","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46126"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46126\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46126"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46126"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46126"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}